The negative impact of the compensation paid by the bankrupt exchange Mt.Gox continues to ferment. After Bitstamp received a huge amount of Bitcoin transfers from Mt.Gox, KraKen also distributed Bitcoin to creditors one after another. The market is worried that creditors will sell Bitcoin for cash after receiving compensation, and the cryptocurrency market is once again facing selling pressure.
As of the time of writing, Mt. Gox still holds 90,344 bitcoins, worth approximately $6 billion. Since creditors lost all of their cryptocurrencies about ten years ago, the price of bitcoin has continued to rise during this period. Now that they have finally got these assets back, they may sell them on the market to cash in, putting downward pressure on the price of the currency.

The US presidential election has entered the countdown to four months, and the fight between former US President Trump and current President Biden has also entered a white-hot stage. Since Trump was shot last weekend, both his support and exposure on social media have soared rapidly. His stance in support of cryptocurrencies has also stimulated the upward trend of Bitcoin, betting that Trump's victory will create a regulatory environment conducive to the growth of cryptocurrencies.

However, Trump pointed out that the current interest rate level must be maintained and interest rate cuts must be avoided until before the November election. In addition, the America First policy he proposed during his previous tenure may push up costs around the world. Therefore, Trump may cause inflation to rebound after taking office, and at the same time hinder the Fed's pace. If high interest rates are to be maintained for a longer period of time, whether cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin can still rise at that time will be a big question mark.

The United States released the latest CPI data last night, showing that inflation continued to slow down. The overall CPI in June fell 0.1% month-on-month from May, lower than the expected increase of 0.1%. It rose 3.0% compared with last year, also lower than the expected 3.1%.
However, although the US CPI data reported good news, investors seem to be shifting their targets and withdrawing from technology giants that have performed strongly recently. Nvidia, Tesla and other US stocks saw a total of $600 billion evaporated in a single day.
In the crypto market, Bitcoin jumped after the release of CPI data, reaching a high of $59,579, but then selling pressure emerged, coupled with the poor performance of U.S. stocks, Bitcoin began to fluctuate and fall again. As of the time of writing, it was quoted at $57,287, down 1.43% in the past 24 hours. Ethereum's trend was the same as Bitcoin. After the release of CPI data last night, it reached a high of $3,216. As of the time of writing, it was quoted at $3,070, down 1.15% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin once rose to $59,450 yesterday before encountering resistance and began to fall. It fell to a low of around $57,050 around 11 am today. The seasonally adjusted CPI data for the end of June released in the evening showed that the published value was lower than the expected value. Daxian predicted the data in the real market, arranged in advance, and achieved a win-win situation for both long and short positions, successfully taking 2,400 points of profit.

Bitcoin four-hour chart

First, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the current price is running between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Band. If the price can break through the upper track and remain above it, it will further confirm the upward trend. If it encounters resistance and falls back near the upper track, it may pull back to near the middle track.

Recently, as the German government continues to sell off Bitcoin and the Mt. Gox exchange begins to repay creditors, Bitcoin has fallen several times. However, Bitcoin climbed upward amid volatility yesterday, breaking through to $59,400 around noon today, with a fierce battle between bulls and bears. As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin was $58,400, up 2.45% in the past 24 hours.

The main reason for Bitcoin's rebound in the past two days is that Germany's sale of $200 million worth of Bitcoin did not actually enter the market; and on July 8, the Bitcoin spot ETF achieved a net inflow of $295 million, the highest level in 21 days, thus providing good support for the price of Bitcoin.

Although Bitcoin fell below $54,000 on Friday, the total net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs on the 5th was $143 million, which not only reversed the outflow trend at the beginning of the week, but also set a new high in inflows in a month.
After the bankrupt Bitcoin exchange Mt.Gox started repaying loans, it was considered by the market to be the culprit for the recent downturn in Bitcoin's trend. The sell-off has not yet ended, and the repayment phase may continue until October. In addition, the German and US governments have also recently transferred large amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges, suspected of selling coins for cash, and are also considered to be one of the culprits for the downturn in Bitcoin's trend.

Falling non-stop! Only a few words can be used to describe the cryptocurrency market this week. It has been falling since Monday (July 1st) from around $63,894. On Friday at noon, it hit a nearly four-month low of $53,485. As of the time of writing, the price was $55,330, down 6.01% in the past 24 hours.
The reasons for the decline of Bitcoin in recent days are summarized as follows: first, at about 8:30 this morning, Mt.Gox transferred about $2.71 billion worth of Bitcoin from the cold wallet. Although the purpose of the transfer is unclear, it is at a time when the exchange is repaying creditors. It is speculated that it may be in preparation for repayment. Once this news came out, it brought panic to the market; second, the German government’s wallet address once again outflowed about $175 million worth of Bitcoin yesterday, and a total of about $300 million worth of Bitcoin outflowed in two weeks. It still holds more than 40,000 pieces, worth about $2.32 billion.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made his latest comments last night. He expressed satisfaction with the progress of declining inflation over the past year, but still stressed that he hopes to see more progress so that he will have more confidence to start cutting interest rates. Inspired by Powell's dovish remarks, the four major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher today, with the S&P 500 index setting a new high to close above 5,500 points. At the same time, the Nasdaq index also set a record high.
However, back to the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin not only did not receive any incentives, but it began to fall continuously around nine o'clock this morning, and at around four o'clock in the afternoon it once plunged to around $59,650, giving up all the gains that started last weekend. Ethereum also fell to a low of $3,331 at about the same time, pouring cold water on the market's expectations of a new wave of rebound in July. The price was $60,260 as of the time of writing.

After Bitcoin dropped to a low of $60,055 last Saturday, it continued to fluctuate in a narrow range around $61,000. However, it continued to rise after breaking through $62,000 at 6 a.m. this morning (the 1st), reaching a high of $63,800. As of the time of writing, it fell back to $62,794, a 3.84% increase in the past 24 hours. The long order near 60,700 given by Daxian in the article on Saturday (29th) successfully made a profit of 1,300 points at 62,000.
Although it is the first day of July, Bitcoin has shown a long-awaited increase, but it will take time to observe whether the trend has reversed. Next, I have sorted out several key issues that may cause fluctuations in the market this week.

Recently, news in the Ethereum market has all pointed to the approval progress of the Ethereum spot ETF. Although the market believes that the approval progress has entered the final stage, relevant sources revealed yesterday that the estimated listing date has been postponed from the original July 2 to after July 8.
According to people familiar with the matter, the SEC has returned the S-1 form to the issuer of the Ethereum spot ETF with a small number of correction comments, asking them to resolve the issues and resubmit the documents. The issuer has been asked to respond to these comments and submit updated documents before July 8. These documents will need to go through at least one more round of review before they can be approved and take effect. After that, the Ethereum spot ETF can begin to be listed and traded. As soon as the news was released, Ethereum's price fell again, from an intraday high of US$3,487 to a low of around US$3,365. As of the time of writing, the price was quoted at US$3,391, down 1.3% in the past 24 hours.

Amidst a depressed market sentiment, June also ushered in its last weekend, and the price of Bitcoin has fallen from around US$71,900 at the beginning of the month to around US$61,100 at present, a correction of nearly 10%.
In this decline, miners’ selling is considered to be one of the main reasons for the decline in the market, because after Bitcoin completed the latest round of halving on April 20, the block reward was halved, the operating costs of miners increased, and the rune craze subsided. Mining companies had to sell Bitcoin to obtain operating funds to purchase new equipment to improve their own mining capabilities.

The first televised debate of the 2024 U.S. presidential election will begin at 9 am today. Perhaps because the topic of cryptocurrency was not mentioned at all during the 90-minute debate, the price of the political meme coin suffered a sharp drop.
Ethereum's price fluctuated upward from around $3,326 to around $3,488 in the early morning of the 27th, but it was unable to reach a high point. As of the time of writing, it has fallen back to around $3,440, a drop of 0.23% in the past 24 hours.
Ethereum four-hour chart

First of all, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Ethereum 4H level chart, the current price of Ethereum is above the middle track and close to the upper track, indicating that the market is still in an upward trend. The upper track 3473 resistance is slightly strong. It broke through twice during the day but ultimately failed to stabilize, so we need to be alert to the risk of a pullback.