#BTC   

4 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving

1. Pre-Halving Rally

Approximately 35 days remain until the Bitcoin Halving in April 2024

And ~60 days before the Halving, a Pre-Halving rally tends to occur (light blue)

History has repeated in this respect

Now, Bitcoin is slightly more halfway through its Pre-Halving Rally phase

Even so, Bitcoin has performed a historic, never-before-done feat in its price action in the Pre-Halving period...

It has broken to new All Time Highs

This Pre-Halving Rally phase has thus been extensive

However technically, the next step is a Pre-Halving Retrace

Historically, in anticipation of the Halving, investors "Buy the Hype" in an effort to "Sell the News"

Short-term traders and speculators "Buy The Hype" several weeks before the Halving in anticipation of making a profit from this hype-fuelled rally

Then these speculators "Sell The News" to realise that profit, contributing to a Pre-Halving retrace which occurs only a handful of weeks before the Halving event itself

2. Final Pre-Halving Retrace

After the Pre-Halving Rally has concluded...

A Pre-Halving retrace tends to occur a few weeks before the Halving event itself (dark blue circle)

In 2016, this Pre-Halving retrace was -38% deep

In 2020, this Pre-Halving retrace was -20% deep

This Pre-Halving retrace can last multiple weeks and up to 77 days

This year, Bitcoin has experienced a -18% pullback in January and a -14% this early March

Therefore it's possible a Pre-Halving Retrace, should one occur, would more likely be on the shallower side than on the deeper side

Also, this Pre-Halving Retrace could also be much shorter than has otherwise been the case historically

3. Re-Accumulation

The Pre-Halving retrace is followed by multi-month re-accumulation (red)

This period can last up to 150 days (i.e 5 months)

Many investors get shaken-out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the Halving

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