This analysis is based on my proprietary Long-Term Holder (LTH) Mourad Ratio, which focuses on UTXOs aged more than six months.

Key Insights:

I - Long-Term Holder Mourad Ratio Stability:

Historically, when the LTH Mourad Ratio remains stable, it signals that the market is not yet poised for a bull run. Only when the ratio starts to deviate negatively from these stable levels does a bull market typically commence. The current consistency in this ratio indicates that we have not yet entered a bull phase.

II - Understanding the Mourad Ratio:

The Mourad Ratio is calculated as the Long-Term Holder Mourad Current Transaction Value (LTH MCTV) divided by the current Bitcoin price.

The LTH MCTV specifically offers insights into the average value of UTXOs aged more than six months, helping to gauge recent accumulation trends and market sentiment among longer-term holders.

This analysis provides a crucial understanding of where Bitcoin stands in its market cycle and offers valuable signals for future movements.

It suggests that while investor anticipation is high, strategic patience may be warranted until the Mourad Ratio indicates more favorable conditions for a bull market onset.

Written by onchained