The #FED will officially end its policy of keeping interest rates high for 2.5 years this evening. It is almost certain that the institution will make a cut of at least 25 basis points and cut interest rates for the first time in 4.5 years. The Fed's expected interest rate decisions are in full swing this time. For the first time since 2009, the markets are so indecisive about what a Fed decision will be... until last week it was 25, but... Until Friday of last week, the markets were certain that the Fed would make a 25 basis point cut.

However, on Friday, the 50 basis point cut suddenly started to increase significantly. The 50 basis point cut rate is currently around 63% in the CME Fed Watch Tool, which searches the prices of futures contracts. This rate had fallen to 17% last week. There is no reason behind the increase in the 50 basis point cut.

“When there is uncertainty, you have to hurry” Tom Simons, an analyst at New York-based investment center Jefferies, said in his latest assessment, “It looks like you are implementing a monetary policy of restraint, but it doesn’t seem to be working as the Fed wants it to. I think that will be the case with quantitative easing. There is uncertainty. And when there is a payment, you usually have to hurry.”

Former Fed branch member: 50 points is more accurate Robert Kaplan, former head of the Fed’s Dallas branch, also stated in an interview that the Fed is following up late: “There are many people like me who think the Fed could not pass and that a reduction should come that will prevent the economy from falling. Of course, some will want the Fed to proceed carefully, but 50 basis points would be a better result…” Headline inflation has fallen, but the core is still high, as the Fed has been keeping interest rates between 5.25% and 5.50% since July. This move by the Fed has worked recently, and inflation has fallen rapidly to 2.5%. Core inflation is still above 3% and at 3.2%. The current interest rates are the Fed's last 23 years of interest rates and have been a period in which it has been followed at a high level in the long term.

The "dot-plot" will also be updated On the other hand, the "dot-plot" graph that the Fed appears 8 times a year in March, June, September and December will also be updated for the first time since June with this meeting.

In these "dot-graphs" in June, Fed members had only predicted one interest rate cut this year. The character of this figure is being considered as definite.

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