The least expected scenario is the most likely scenario !!
Just ask yourself a very simple question, what is the most expected scenario for BTC and Alts? A bull run leading to ATH in just few weeks, months !! A man walking down the road would even tell you that, but when you hear it from everyone… Sell and walk away, wait for the inevitable.
I am not a fortune teller, & everyone trading knows some TA if not all, so not going to get in the details of TA.
All I see money flows from coins , Volume and Price Action, and how much the chart looks good but battle on the ground ain’t that good..
Every day around 50,000 traders are liquidated and some with millions of dollars, Alts loosing values every day bit by bit and people waiting for that green biggest candle world has never seen or known that will pump their bags to moons.. everyone is shouting out loud BTC to 120k, 250k and some even forecasted it to 1 million dollars… wow
Before I continue I must say none of this is a NOT a financial advise and I am not a fortune teller nor I have crystal ball (yet)… but then again no body has !!
Solana is crashing every day and the day it looses 140, it will be below 100 before we even know it. ETH is already tested 2800 level which I wrote few weeks ago. Now we are looking at 2,400. People are somehow discussing the possibility of BTC going to 59,57k and some predicting it to 52k.
Guys any one can throw numbers in thin air looking at charts and Fibonacci this and that.. but as I have said before and I will say it again markets moves because of two reasons and not because of our wishes and two reasons are liquidity or market imbalance. Major liquidity + market imbalance is below us and some liquidity around ATH.. but much much more is below us.. economic data is already bad as I mentioned in my previous post..
Same pundits were predicting ATH this May and June now they have just changed the year… what happens in 2025 who knows?
So expect the least expected atleast for time being…
For the first time coming out of a multi-year high, so, for the first time since April 2021, Bitcoin moved and closed weekly below EMA10.
👉 Bitcoin is now officially trading within bearish territory.
This signal can be interpreted as the start of a short-term bearish wave. If the wave will be long or short in duration we cannot tell at this point; assuming our halving theory, bull-market, etc., we expect a short-term correction —fast and strong followed by sustained growth but this is just speculation of course.
➖ Bitcoin moved quite completely different in this cycle compared to previous cycle.
➖ The truth is that we are in uncharted territory.
👉 The correction can be mild or strong?
So far all signals continue to point toward a major crash in the coming days or weeks; it can always extend but the bearish signals are only becoming stronger, the bullish side weaker.
The feeling right now is as if there are no buyers... Waiting... Waiting for something; maybe the movement of some funds.
There was plenty of time to sell at the top but for many this isn't enough... Right now we are going down and instead of securing amazing profits, some people are kind of greedy hoping for more.
All we can say is that Bitcoin will grow in the long-term... But short-term, prepare for the drop!
In case of capitulation look for ETH at 2,400 levels, Sol around 86-96, BNB in range of 300-400, Doge below 0.1200, rest of altcoins 30-50% below CMP if we have a catastrophic event of capitulation.. available data shows three LP 79,000, 50,000 and the most dreaded 30,0000, can’t predict how it is going to move but I guess it will take LP of 52k and below then 79k and drastic drop to 30k. Anybody can check the LPs on CoinGlass on very HTF to see what I just discussed.. OI also way above normal levels, market imbalances still not corrected.. it’s not a question of if but when !! Stay alert guys!!
More on downside than upside… max we should see 65,600 and that too if we are really lucky 🍀
This is from the perspective of Price Action (PA) and volume analysis. ETF’s are seeing continued outflow, US govt is trying to come after Tether !! Market hasn’t taken any direction so more of a bearish action is expected but having said that as I always say no one can time the market and only calculated probabilities can be discussed and shared !! strong coins showing weakness like TAO loosing momentum, ETH not looking to good and in case of downward pressure it should test 2,400 range TAO lost 72% of its value in just 32 days and let that sink in.. FET, RNDR, MEME, TON, INJ, ZIG showing no proper bullish signs, BTC dominance on break out !! What should we expect, that could be anybody’s guess and in no way my idea is to create FUD but to make sure none of us loose money in a bull trap, only a break and sustained 67500 can confirm we are on the bull side and have crossed the chop chop part of market, which I doubt in near term future.. max upside as per liquidity level on very HTF so far is 79-80k but that is from the available data as far.. stay cautious avoid leverage and don’t buy on the top if there’s a dip to come buy on the dip and don’t DCA… professional traders don’t add to losing trades no matter how brilliant the idea looks but practically speaking you will trap all your money in DCA… add to your winning position.. retail and individuals have this psychologically of adding to loosing positions while cutting to winning position? Ever heard a professional fund manager doing the same? No !! They are quick to cut the losses…
Watch out… we may even touch 65,000/- touch and go while taking out the shorts and then dumping to take out longs.. unless and until FVG doesn’t get corrected (the market imbalance) 56,500 level.. the market may not move out of this choppy situation…
In case of capitulation even 56,500 can’t be ruled out but as of right now that doesn’t seems very probable but again this is crypto who knows one day to moon and next day to kill zone.. beware and be cautious and don’t do DCA as you will run out of money if market plans to go down and down and down to what level no body can guess but 57 seems a safe level for spot entry, expecting a lot of volatility due to CPI/PPI data coming in these two days and then we can see the price reactions.. market is not expecting a good data so a big sell off can come anytime in case of a bit bad data else we will continue to chop chop chop…
Don’t try to short the market as none of us is more smarter than the market as a whole… and as they say market is always right irrespective of whatever!!
Avoid leveraged trades rather stay out of market if you save your capital today there will be million trades ahead , learn to life to fight another day guys !!
In my opinion, BTC is expected will remain in sideways movement for few weeks, while making a kill on both sides leveraged long and leveraged shorts, while we have just witnessed a drop to 60,690 taking out leveraged late longs or longs with high leverage, now that BTC is almost done in grabbing and grinding the liquidity, will move up to test 63,500/- range. Alts will obviously follow suit. Be careful while trading in this choppy market and avoid leveraged trades on both sides either long or short as a falling knife cuts on both sides !! Stay safe, trade wisely…
Btw the short squeeze came in sharply and destroyed a lot of late shorts or high level shorts to 61,500/- one liquidation snapshot is from 12 hours ago one at the time of this writing. I guess there’s still more to come before taking the late longs or if the support is broken then obviously it will be late longs first but looking at liquidation map there’s billion more on the short side than long side..
Now ?
Seems more like accumulation to me despite weekend’s slow performance… might lead to a break out soon by Monday if it doesn’t break the support and plans to visit 57’s unfulfilled wick…
Since I don’t hold a crystal ball to tell what market is going to do next hour, next day or 6 months from now and charts are also not be all & end all or doesn’t rely on holy grail of any indicator so not going to time the market, but looking at the available data and market psychology, a educated move can be guessed. In my opinion, which can be wrong as well, but since open interest is at peak & there’s lot less longs then short positions… market moves because of two reasons liquidity and market imbalance, since liquidity is above the current trading price till 67k and also below till 52k and the market imbalance is at 56.5k level. Market has taken almost all the longs and so far a fraction of shorts are gone.. there are currently few millions on longs while few Billions on the shorts, so as the market psychology is, it always moves in the opposite direction of what masses predict. In my opinion we should see a short squeeze to take out late to medium shorts and grab liquidity and trap traders on higher price before moving down again to take out the longs as retail bias changes with one to two red or green candles. We have seen a lot of blood bath and downward movement and no sizable volume, market makers will seize this opportunity to do exactly opposite and since this is a classic play in a choppy market so it will cut on both sides.. so most likely a short squeeze is coming in few hours to take out the shorters as the FUD about drop is getting louder and louder so it’s time to put silence to lambs !! Stay cautious, stay safe and avoid leverage as whatever has been discussed above is just a probability and not a certainty and should not be taken as financial advice. Short squeeze should not be ruled out but who knows when it will come followed by a large sell off to trap the bulls and then kill the bears on way… that’s how choppy market works and looking at the data most of the market is in oversold positions with RSI down below 50…
Since I don’t hold a crystal ball to tell what market is going to do next hour, next day or 6 months from now and charts are also not be all & end all or doesn’t rely on holy grail of any indicator so not going to time the market, but looking at the available data and market psychology, a educated move can be guessed. In my opinion, which can be wrong as well, but since open interest is at peak & there’s lot less longs then short positions… market moves because of two reasons liquidity and market imbalance, since liquidity is above the current trading price till 67k and also below till 52k and the market imbalance is at 56.5k level. Market has taken almost all the longs and so far a fraction of shorts are gone.. there are currently few millions on longs while few Billions on the shorts, so as the market psychology is, it always moves in the opposite direction of what masses predict. In my opinion we should see a short squeeze to take out late to medium shorts and grab liquidity and trap traders on higher price before moving down again to take out the longs as retail bias changes with one to two red or green candles. We have seen a lot of blood bath and downward movement and no sizable volume, market makers will seize this opportunity to do exactly opposite and since this is a classic play in a choppy market so it will cut on both sides.. so most likely a short squeeze is coming in few hours to take out the shorters as the FUD about drop is getting louder and louder so it’s time to put silence to lambs !! Stay cautious, stay safe and avoid leverage as whatever has been discussed above is just a probability and not a certainty and should not be taken as financial advice. Short squeeze should not be ruled out but who knows when it will come followed by a large sell off to trap the bulls and then kill the bears on way… that’s how choppy market works and looking at the data most of the market is in oversold positions with RSI down below 50…
Now that BTC has almost made the kill, and taken out millions of dollars in late long on leverage, time to buy spot and sell on the top of this range. In the next post I’ll write about how to trade the range.
BTC may drop to 60,400 level before bouncing back to range high. Kill zone for leveraged shorts are coming !!
Expecting a strong bounce from range lows mentioned above !! Play safe and enjoy the range.. buy low sell high, that’s the mantra to success…
In my opinion, BTC is expected will remain in sideways movement for few weeks, while making a kill on both sides leveraged long and leveraged shorts, while we have just witnessed a drop to 60,690 taking out leveraged late longs or longs with high leverage, now that BTC is almost done in grabbing and grinding the liquidity, will move up to test 63,500/- range. Alts will obviously follow suit. Be careful while trading in this choppy market and avoid leveraged trades on both sides either long or short as a falling knife cuts on both sides !! Stay safe, trade wisely…
What are going to be best performers and stable alt coins in upcoming bull market;
This is not a financial advice and please do DYOR and analysis before investing anything.
In my opinion for medium to long term investment following alt coins will outperform many old horses; These coins are highly oversold and under dogs but since we all know upcoming bull markets are going to attract a lot of money inflows in RWA (Real World Asset) coins having utility and not just memes.
1. Ton - can outperform Solana as the new big thing and solid team behind it. 2. TRX - Accumulation is underway as we speak 3. Gal - Accumulation is underway as we speak 4. Ape - has performed exceptionally well in past and is expected to do well in future as well 5. WLD - is one of the most promising projects 6. LQTY - has seen ups and downs but again is a strong contender for investing. 7. XRP - one of the most stable coins with low beta and huge market cap 8. Doge - again low beta with backings of whales with a huge market cap 9. Matic - one of the most sought after coins and in the oversold territory 10. Agix - with hype on AI agix fits the bill 11. Zig - another promising gem 12. Inj - Injective is known to be best performers from 2 till 42 it has performed really great. 13. TAO - is one the next big things with huge potential 14. RNDR - with massive potential for growth in future RNDR should be on list 15. CFX - Chinese coin with a lot of potential from Hong Kong ETF again a whale play 16. Aave - Whales play 17. Gala - with fair light on gaming projects Gala has proved its worth and success numerous times 18. Jasmy - the Japanese coin has performed well and should be able to surpass expectations in future as well.
Past performances are not reflections of future performance but as per my opinion these are the coins I would personally like to buy for medium term. Strategy is to buy on dip or in case of capitulation and sell near ATH. Reader are encouraged to add list of coins they think can do well in future.
Some thoughts about incoming moves of BTC and ETH based on data.
As we witnessed an anticipated drop and level breakdown discussed in earlier posts. Market structure has broken down at 62.5k $ 62k strong support levels and now that supports have become strong resistance for BTC and other alts.
Money flow is getting weaker and weaker and looking at the PA and swift but short upward spike is expected to trap investors along with to take out late or high leveraged shorts in order to grab the exit liquidity. Liquidity chart on 12H still showing downside liquidity instead of upside liquidity so a move to levels of 59k and 57-56.5k can not and should be ruled out despite a short rally to trap and liquidate late shorts for BTC and alts. It is in safer interest of investors and traders to avoid risk as general direction of market will be clear only after restoring the market imbalance at levels of 57k/56.6k and that my friends is a good buying opportunity for both BTC and alts as after few months of range bound sideways movement an upward move can be anticipated to levels above 72-73k making an ATH. Before the restoration of market imbalance it is useless to think such an upward move. If you are really tempted to ride this move of uncertainty and ups and downs leverage at all cost should be avoided and buy on weakness and sell on strength should be advised strategy with strict stop loss even on spot bags as in event of capitulation which can happen, price can drop down to much lower levels of 52k-50k as around 6 billion dollars of liquidity is below or around this level. Learn to cut your losses quick as a loss of 5$ would not take much long to become 50$ or even 500$. Remember capital is the only thing keeping you in this market making you any profit. Preserve your capital from unnecessary risks. Sometimes no trade is a good trade !! Stay cautious and wait and watch.. better grab pop corns and spend some time away from market and spend with family and friends, wish you luck 🍀
Smart Money outflow from BTC / ETH and inflows into BNB.
As we have witnessed a bloody crash last night in BTC price while it took down the prices of alts along with it to downward levels while BTC’s dominance remained the same, if it was to peak to 57-58% the scenario would not have been closed to what we saw yesterday, it would have been much worst. We saw a drop to 60,888 liquidating a lot of late long traders or traders with high leverage before market turning quickly to smash late shorts or high leverage shorts. In total 140$ million was erased from market with 64,000 traders getting liquidated.
So where exactly the smart money is moving out from BTC, SOL & ETH into not just to hedge but to earn from it and that too on the spot as no one can predict the market perfectly and since smart capital is shy it obviously would have taken refuge in a safe yet profitable position in the market and that is BNB and LTC, after a very simple punishment against the ideas of market gurus and pundits, Judge gave him only few months of sentence making the FUD against Binance and CZ vanish away unlike other so it gives BNB and CZ a very good chance to make a come back in coming future. We saw a drop till 60,888/- and that is not all folks, market structure has broken down and we can anticipate further wave down till the 58-57k level to restore the market imbalance. Stay away from the market especially shorts if you are novice and don’t understand the market dynamics. Further incoming economic data will further hemorrhage the market sentiments along with the prices trapping a lot of investors. Stay cautious !!
BTC is testing its support at 62,000 multiple times on 4H. Either it is going to catapult to 63,500 to take out lat shorts as it has already taken a lot of late longs out. But if this doesn’t break this level it should straight go and test 63,500 in case of break down fall down level is 61,500/-
By looking at the liquidity data 12 hours, 24 hours, 3 days and 1 month. Seems like it will be a quick drop to fill the gap at unfilled wick at 56,500/- and then a range bound condition for few weeks before taking any proper direction.. Money is flowing out of BTC substantially as we speak, reflecting general sentiments of investors and expected direction. Also liquidation data reveals a quick upward move to take out the late shorts !! Moreover coming week with important economic data will make market severely vulnerable and volatile, leverage on any side should be avoided.
Looking at the liquidity data levels mentioned by ICT / Influencers 52-50 seems unlikely atleast for a month.. range bound with BTC dominance not going above 55-56, alts should perform well (obviously not alts)… best strategy for this market time is to buy on weakness and sell on strength.. or even wait and watch if novice trader. $ETH $BTC $BNB #altcoins #CryptoWatchMay2024 #BTC #Megadrop #CryptocurrencyAlert
BTC is testing its support at 62,000 multiple times on 4H. Either it is going to catapult to 63,500 to take out lat shorts as it has already taken a lot of late longs out. But if this doesn’t break this level it should straight go and test 63,500 in case of break down fall down level is 61,500/-
By looking at the liquidity data 12 hours, 24 hours, 3 days and 1 month. Seems like it will be a quick drop to fill the gap at unfilled wick at 56,500/- and then a range bound condition for few weeks before taking any proper direction.. Money is flowing out of BTC substantially as we speak, reflecting general sentiments of investors and expected direction. Also liquidation data reveals a quick upward move to take out the late shorts !! Moreover coming week with important economic data will make market severely vulnerable and volatile, leverage on any side should be avoided.
Looking at the liquidity data levels mentioned by ICT / Influencers 52-50 seems unlikely atleast for a month.. range bound with BTC dominance not going above 55-56, alts should perform well (obviously not alts)… best strategy for this market time is to buy on weakness and sell on strength.. or even wait and watch if novice trader. $ETH $BTC $BNB #altcoins#CryptoWatchMay2024#BTC#Megadrop#CryptocurrencyAlert
My ominous view again is if price doesn’t move past 67,500+, it’s a bull trap and eventually result is 52-50 region !! Mid level supports on way down would be 59k and 56k… But be careful not spreading FUD but in my view PA is still very weak, Money Flow is not good… BTC has been struggling for past 48 hours to maintain price and momentum, failing in both… and even if price sustains but dominance goes up even then its a bad idea for alts… let’s see how US markets reacts tonight as it’s important economic week ahead… be cautious !! Rest every one has their own bias but it’s better not to jump in front of a moving train, it’s ok to miss few hundred points than loosing few hundred dollars chasing the market…
في رأيي، من غير المرجح أن يتوقف الانخفاض هنا حيث لا توجد حركة سعرية صعودية في هذه المرحلة. وكما قلت مرات عديدة، فإن مجمع السيولة يقع تحتنا وليس فوقنا. الدخول في السوق ينطوي على مخاطرة كبيرة. 57k/58k ليس مستوى ولكنه مجرد خلل في السوق ناجم عن حركة السعر المفاجئة والتي يمكن رؤيتها من خلال الفتيل. إذا انخفض السوق، فستكون مستويات الشراء في مناطق تتراوح بين 52 ألفًا إلى 50 ألفًا. أفضل عدم الشراء أو البيع على هذا المستوى لأنه ينطوي على مخاطرة كبيرة ويمكن أن تتم عملية التصفية في ثوانٍ حيث لا يمكن لأحد تحديد توقيت السوق.
As most of the people expect market will dive down to 58-57k level, but 57-58k is not a level at all it’s market imbalance as we can see the Fair Value Gap at these prices. The nearest level if market goes into free fall is 52-50k. Avoid leverage as at this time of writing the open interest on all the exchanges have sky rocketed as most expect dump max to 59k/58k. Stay cautious.
In my opinion the market is not going to catapult to 80k let alone 100k, the way people are anticipating, no one can time the market not fundamental analyst nor technical analysts, it will remain range bound for some good time before taking any serious direction.., in few months period the only liquidity available on the higher side is around 70k-72k which is obviously not ATH at the time of this writing and that too from early shorts around ATH else as per the liquidity charts the liquidity is below at current trading price of 62000k, i.e 50s and even lower if we go by the liquidity as the basic fundamental of price action is market always follows the liquidity… may be on a later stage there generates liquidity about ATH because of re-shorts but as of right now nothing is there.. charts attached..
If a trade is going against you, learn to cut losses quickly as just by hoping it will turn around it won’t most of time… hopium is a bad thing just like drugs
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