- The upward price trend of Bitcoin in late May to early June 2024 -

coincides with significant ETF netflow, suggesting increased

investment and activity in Bitcoin ETFs.

- The large net flows might be a contributing factor to the rising price,

as substantial inflows generally indicate increased buying interest.

- The timing of these net flows (around May 24) aligns with key points

in the price chart, supporting the idea that ETF activity is influencing

market prices.

- We saw the same activity in Bitcoin ETF netflows on June 5,

indicating that institutions are still interested in buying Bitcoin.

Observations:.

The charts suggest a strong correlation between Bitcoin ETF netflow and the price movement of Bitcoin. Increased ETF netflow likely contributed to the upward price trend observed from late May to early June 2024.

Written by Amr Taha

The traditional Sharpe Ratio calculates the excess return of an investment by dividing it by its standard deviation, reflecting the volatility of the investment's returns.

When comparing the Adjusted Sharpe Ratio analysis to volatility, it becomes evident that TON's 7-day volatility consistently exceeds its 30-day volatility over the past two and a half years. This indicates that the TON price has been more susceptible to sudden swings in the short term compared to longer-term activity.

Furthermore, the speculative usage of the coin and the increasing number of Telegram users participating in DeFi and GameFi suggest a significant volatility impact on the token at a fundamental level. Speculators may refer to the adjusted Sharpe ratio for potential indicators of price fatigue (highlighted in red) or assumed higher return versus risk (highlighted in blue).

Currently, based on a 180-day Sharpe Ratio analysis, the price of TON has reached a level of fatigue, indicating a potential drawdown in price in the near term.

Written by ShivenMoodley

- The upward price trend of Bitcoin in late May to early June 2024 -

coincides with significant ETF netflow, suggesting increased

investment and activity in Bitcoin ETFs.

- The large net flows might be a contributing factor to the rising price,

as substantial inflows generally indicate increased buying interest.

- The timing of these net flows (around May 24) aligns with key points

in the price chart, supporting the idea that ETF activity is influencing

market prices.

- We saw the same activity in Bitcoin ETF netflows on June 5,

indicating that institutions are still interested in buying Bitcoin.

Observations:.

The charts suggest a strong correlation between Bitcoin ETF netflow and the price movement of Bitcoin. Increased ETF netflow likely contributed to the upward price trend observed from late May to early June 2024.

Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin: Exchange Reserve - All Exchanges graph shows two things: the amount of Bitcoin stored in exchanges (Exchange Reserve) and the Bitcoin price in USD.

Exchange Reserve (blue line):

From early 2022 to mid-2023, there's a downward trend, indicating Bitcoin is being moved from exchanges to personal storage. A sharp drop in early 2023 could be due to market events or exchange policies. This trend suggests either long-term confidence in Bitcoin or concerns about exchange security.

Bitcoin Price (white line):

Starting in 2023, the Bitcoin price shows a significant rise, going from around $40K to over $70K. This increase happens even though the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges is decreasing, indicating higher demand or a limited supply.

**Relationship Between Reserve and Price:**

- There’s a negative correlation between the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges and its price. Less Bitcoin on exchanges means less supply in the market, pushing the price up. This is backed by the law of supply and demand.

Conclusion:

The drop in Bitcoin on exchanges helps increase its price. Other factors like global economic conditions and monetary policies also impact the market. Investors should pay attention to these dynamics when planning their strategies. Analyzing these trends gives important insights into the broader crypto market.

Written by CRYPTOHELL

The whales’ 🐳 appetite for buying Bitcoin has returned strongly, now at its highest in the last two months, and their Bitcoin balance records a new historical number.

They are now returning with strong buying power once again, which indicates that the current prices are suitable for buying and accumulating. Are we approaching a new peak for Bitcoin? I believe so.

Written by abramchart

Description:

The chart shows two different realized prices:

* 1d - 1w UTXO Age Band (Pink Line): This represents the realized price of Bitcoin

UTXOs that have last moved between 1 day and 1 week ago.

* 1w - 1m UTXO Age Band (Red Line):** This represents the realized

price of Bitcoin UTXOs that have last moved between 1 week and 1

month ago.

Significance:

* Realized Price by UTXO Age Bands: This helps to understand the

cost basis of Bitcoins held by different holder cohorts.

* Short-Term Holders (1d - 1w): Reflects recent buying activity and

can indicate where new market entrants or short-term traders are

positioned.

* Medium-Term Holders (1w - 1m):** Shows the average cost basis

for those who have held Bitcoin slightly longer, providing insights

into their profitability and potential sell pressures.

Key Observations and Interpretation:

* Green Boxes: These highlight instances where the market price

crosses above or below the realized price bands.

* Crossing Above Realized Price:When the market price crosses

above the realized price, it suggests that recent buyers are now in

profit. This can lead to further buying pressure as confidence

increases.

* Crossing Below Realized Price: When the market price drops below

the realized price, recent buyers are at a loss. This can lead to

selling pressure as holders might want to cut their losses.

Current Market Insights:

* Current Market Price: As of the latest data point, the market price is

around $71,133.

* 1d - 1w Realized Price: $68,814.68

* 1w - 1m Realized Price: $66,836.89

Market Sentiment:

The market price is above both realized price bands, indicating that both recent short-term and medium-term holders are currently in profit.

Written by Amr Taha

After ~10 days of negative Coinbase premium, the premium finally turned positive.

In many cases, BTC dips with positive Coinbase premium often led to buy the dip opportunities.

Written by BQYoutube

As a large amount of Bitcoin outlfows from Coinbase, a substantial amount of Bitcoin enters spot exchanges (4,594 BTC).

We are witnessing consecutive large inflows and outflows; what does this mean?

1- Spot Exchanges Netflow

As of 19:00 today, looking at the total netflow data for spot exchanges, we observed an inflow of 4,594 Bitcoin. This could create short-term selling pressure. However, evaluating this data alone can be somewhat misleading because Spot ETFs are now on the table.

There is a fierce market dominance battle between Asia and the USA (in my personal opinion).

2- Coinbase Netflow

Examining the netflow data specifically for Coinbase, we observe significant outflows at two different times in the last 48 hours.

We observed net outflows of 3,067 units at 03:00 on June 4th and 3,734 net BTC outflow at 17:00 on June 5th. These substantial outflows, amounting to nearly 500 million dollars, cannot be ignored in relation to Spot ETFs. In fact, there was an inflow of 886.6 million dollars into Spot ETFs yesterday.

These institutions must purchase Bitcoin on behalf of their users, and they can do this through the Coinbase exchange (except for Fidelity).

Conclusion

When we look at the Coinbase Premium Index on an hourly basis (and daily as well), we can see that it is in the positive region.

This shows us that buyers in the USA are strong. All these data prove that Spot ETFs are the main drivers of the bull cycle we are currently in. As of now (June 5th), the total volume of Bitcoin Spot ETFs has exceeded 1 billion dollars. If we see substantial inflows again today (highly likely), we will witness the ETF rally continuing from where it left off.

All of this will inevitably lead to Bitcoin refreshing its ATH."

Written by burakkesmeci

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is a metric used to gauge the overall sentiment of market participants by measuring the total paper (unrealized) gains and losses of all coins or assets in circulation. This metric helps to identify whether the majority of the market is currently in a state of profit or loss and can provide insights into potential market movements.

1. Unrealized Profit :.

This occurs when the current price of an asset is higher than the price at which it

was acquired, but the asset has not been sold yet. For example, if you bought

Bitcoin at $10,000 and its current price is $20,000, you have an unrealized profit

of $10,000.

2. Unrealized Loss :.

This occurs when the current price of an asset is lower than

the price at which it was acquired, but the asset has not been sold yet. For

example, if you bought Bitcoin at $20,000 and its current price is $10,000, you

have an unrealized loss of $10,000.

3. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) :.

is the difference between market cap and realized cap divided by market cap.

Bullish Signals :.

Low or negative NUPL values indicate a market where participants are in a state

of loss, which might suggest panic selling or capitulation, leading to a market

bottom.

Bearish Signals :.

High NUPL values might indicate an overbought market, suggesting potential

profit-taking and a market correction.

Written by Amr Taha

By default, institutional investors trade based on market opportunities, with little long-term vision.

Unlike convinced Bitcoin investors, who seek to create long-term reserves, whales generally seek medium-term profits.

We can easily identify this behavior through the monthly variation of Bitcoin reserves of entities with more than 1,000 BTC.

Note that there is a pattern of accumulation and distribution, directly impacting pricing.

After an intense period of distribution in March, institutional investors began the process of reaccumulation in the last two weeks.

This buying pressure has already started to impact market prices, but it should intensify in the coming weeks.

Written by caueconomy

Reasons for Changes in Miner Reserve:

1. Miners Don't Necessarily Sell High and Buy Low:

- Miners' strategies are not always aligned with the typical "sell high, buy low"

mentality. Their actions are often influenced by operational needs and market

conditions rather than speculative trading.

2. Risk Management:

- Miners typically avoid taking additional risks with their Bitcoin reserves. They

focus on maintaining stable operations and managing their financial exposure

carefully.

3. Operational Expenses:

- Miners have significant expenses, primarily electricity costs for running their

mining equipment. When Bitcoin prices rise, miners often convert some of their

mined Bitcoin into fiat currency to cover these operational costs and ensure

smooth running of their operations.

4. Hedging Strategies:

- Some miners use hedging strategies to protect themselves against price

volatility. By purchasing Bitcoin when prices are low, they can offset potential

losses if the value of their mined Bitcoin decreases. This strategy helps stabilize

their financial situation.

5. Futures Contracts:

- Miners can also use futures contracts (both long and short positions) to manage

risk and maintain their reserve value. This approach helps keep their risk

exposure near zero.

Observations:

- Most of the time, the miner reserve tends to move in the opposite direction of the Bitcoin price. This means that miners often buy or go long on Bitcoin when its price decreases and sell when the price increases.

Written by Amr Taha

most of time they come too late or they buy high and sell low .

Written by Amr Taha

market sentiment

Written by Amr Taha

some reasons for why miners reserve increasing or decreasing :

* miners don't necessarily selling high and buying low.

* miners don't take any additional risks for their Bitcoin reserve value

* Miners have significant expenses to cover, mainly electricity costs to run their machines , When the price goes up, it's an opportunity to convert some mined bitcoin into fiat to pay bills and keep operations running smoothly.

* Some miners use a strategy called hedging to protect themselves against price volatility. By buying Bitcoin when prices are low, they can offset potential losses if the value of their mined bitcoins drops. This helps stabilize their financial situation.

* miners also can buy futures contract's ( long / short ) to keep risk near to zero

at last :.

i find most of time ( miners reserve ) take opposed direction with Bitcoin price means Miners buy or long when btc price decreasing and sell when btc price increasing.

Written by Amr Taha

The balance of new accumulating addresses between 10-10k and 10k-100k continues to grow without any sign of stopping! 🚀💰

Written by elcryptotavo

Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Signals Potential Local Bottom around $69K?

In the NVT GC data, the red zone can indicate a local top, while the green zone can indicate a local bottom.

However, with the inclusion of Spot ETFs in recent times, the situation has become a bit more complex. Since the increase in Spot ETF inflows in February 2024, a local bottom of -1.6 points has not been seen in NVT GC. We can also see the effect of ETF inflows on the market specifically for this data.

On the other hand, we have witnessed that NVT GC has made local bottoms (since February 2024) in the range of 0.00 to -1.00 points.

As of now, NVT GC is at 0.14 points. This indicates that we may soon see a local bottom in the 69-70K region. The 886.6 million dollar Spot ETF inflows that came yesterday also support this. I will follow NVT GC closely and update you when it reaches the white zone.

Thank you for reading.

Written by burakkesmeci

The market is experiencing extremely low volatility, with current Garman-Klass Realized Volatility (3-months) indicators, which measure the realized volatility of Bitcoin price, having dropped to 20%. The chart shows that similar indicators over the last 6 years have led to rapid changes in Bitcoin price.

The second metric, the Volatility Index (SMA-30d), which includes normalized data on inflow and outflow streams on all cryptocurrency exchanges and normalized data of taker orders, similarly shows a significant reduction. Essentially, this metric presents data that can influence Bitcoin price, and as we see on the chart, the metric has dropped to extremely low levels, which have only been seen four times in the last six years.

The third chart shows the structure of the bull market based on the Adjusted MVRV (30DMA/365DMA) metric, showing that the current bull market structure resembles that of the 2015-2018 market. We have already passed halfway, and so far, everything is going well, without the turbulence seen in the previous cycle.

Conclusions:

Given that the market's current structure remains bullish and that the end of the low volatility period could be followed by a strong price movement, it can be concluded that the market is in the process of forming a new bullish trend.

Written by AxelAdlerJr

Miner holdings of Bitcoin are in decline, down 50% from highs. It was over 5,000 days, or 14 years, since miner reserve of Bitcoin was this low.

To give some context:

14 years ago Satoshi was still active on the Bitcoin project, no altcoins existed yet, Obama was President, and it would be another 10 years until Michael Saylor and MSTR bought their first Bitcoin.

Compound this with higher demand, lower inflation, and we continue marching towards an epic supply crunch in the coming years.

Companies and investors with foresight enough to understand the long term implications of supply will do extremely well. Slowly.. then all at once.

Written by Papi

Between mid-April and May, the cryptocurrency market experienced fatigue in price action, largely attributed to derivative market consolidation, despite positive macro news within the industry.

During this period, funding rates indicated support for the bullish trading range. Moreover, the recent surge above the 50-day Moving Average by open interest values indicates a growing trend of opening leverage long positions. Conversely, stable coin exchange reserve ratios remained flat, suggesting that leveraged position size continue to be relatively minor.

Additionally, the short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) reflects increased FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) money following the All-Time High (ATH).

I do believe a catalyst will be needed to drive price action higher over the near term horizon, however long leveraged traders will target $76,000, while short positions will target $63,000 under the present conditions.

Written by ShivenMoodley

market buy sparks appearing on a specific exchange are clear traces of a whale.

This whale intervened strongly before the Ethereum ETF approval.

whale's strong intervention at certain levels can become a powerful support level.

Although there are no spark traces, signs of whale intervention are appearing in the Bitcoin market.

During the stagnant price range, taker buy/sell ratio on Binance is trending upward (Photo 3).

In the Ethereum market, taker buy /sell ratio increased just before an upward move during a sideways trading range, and this pattern is also appearing in the current range (Photo 2).

Written by Mignolet