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Mid-2020 Bitcoin Whale Indicator Flashes Signal Before 500% Surge
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young-Ju saw parallels in Bitcoin's market behavior between now and mid-2020, when prices stagnated but on-chain activity was considerable. Two charts and a post on X highlighted Young-Ju's findings, suggesting a strong undercurrent of large-volume transactions outside public exchange networks.
The first graphic, showing data until 2020, displays Bitcoin's price and the realized cap for new whales, a statistic that records the aggregate value at which wealthy investors last bought Bitcoin. It values each UTXO at its last traded price rather than its current market price. This indicator shows the network's coins' realized worth, not their market value.
This value spiked in mid-2020, when Bitcoin's price was bored like in previous months, trading around $10,000. Young-Ju said this time was marked by strong on-chain activity, which subsequent investigation revealed featured institutional OTC transactions.
Despite Bitcoin's price being sideways for nearly 100 days, the second chart, extending to 2024, shows even more rise in the realized cap for new whales. The figure shows a daily $1 billion increase to new whale wallets, which are addresses storing massive sums of Bitcoin and commonly owned by institutional or well-funded individuals.
Ki Young-Ju added: “Same vibe on Bitcoin as mid-2020. BTC was about $10k for 6 months with heavy on-chain activity, ultimately disclosed as OTC trades. Despite little price volatility, $1B is added daily to new whale accounts, presumably custody.
He supported his findings with a September 2020 tweet that said, "BTC transferred hits the year-high, and those TXs are not from exchanges." All exchanges' FFR falls to a year-low. Something’s occurring. Possible OTC deals.”
This contrast and the high realized cap for new whales imply large-scale investors are still accumulating, as in mid-2020.
