What is the Fed most worried about?
The answer is interest rate hikes.
If an interest rate hike occurs, it would signify the Fed's failure, the failure of traditional economic leverage, the failure of countless predecessors' economic theories, and the failure of the current US government. Therefore, regardless of economic data, interest rates must be cut this year to prove that inflation is declining. Therefore, expect various liquidity injections and shifts in public sentiment after April 15th.
1. Regarding the analysis of interest rate cuts, it has been repeatedly emphasized in previous reports that traders' expectations for interest rate cuts differ from the actual expectations, and it has been analyzed multiple times that interest rate cuts should occur no later than September after June.
2. Regarding the halving analysis, 82000 is the cornerstone of the halving narrative. The short-term target for this year is 100,000, but breaking through 150,000 this year still lacks narrative. Let's see how the BTC ecosystem evolves. ETFs alone are far from enough; more innovations like the inscription type are needed.
3. CPI analysis: CPI is expected to rise to 3.4%, but the core monthly rate is expected to decrease to 0.3%. Inflation data will not deteriorate, reflecting various demands.
