Uptober Shows Its Colors
Hello again after a nice weekly opening. It's been a long time since we've seen such green and strong candles, which brings our mood back. I hope it continues, and I'm pleased that last week went according to my expectations. You can check out my article at this link to review last week's expectations and possibilities.
Bitcoin
BTC, which has been rising since the opening last week, closed the week rising again towards the weekly close. The price looks quite strong. This week we see implied volatility and realized volatility intersecting perfectly.
Here's an extra bit of info: BTC's 2021 69k ATH adjusted for inflation is currently around 79k. From this perspective, BTC still appears not to have made a new ATH. Perhaps the 74k region might not bring as much selling pressure as we expect.
From this point on, I expect corrections to be short and in a way that most people can't enter, as is typical for BTC movements. We're entering a period where movements will become more intense and faster. Especially as the elections approach, the acceleration for crypto will increase as Trump's chances of winning increase. This week's implied volatility range is between 61.5k and 76.5k.
The price's persistent rise to high regions in this way is quite good. While the most call contracts for October 25 are at 70k, the most put contracts are at 55k. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.62. The market looks bullish for this week too. Our expectation for this week could be a slight pullback followed by an increase. Closings below 68k wouldn't be very good.
Ethereum
This week, ETH again rose much stronger than BTC close to the close. ETH, which also surpassed its monthly opening, closed the week over 5.5% up. This week's volatility rose slightly above the implied volatility. The Fear index continues its dominance in the Greed region.
Similarly, ETH's 2021 ATH of 4868 adjusted for inflation is currently $5,522. ETH, which couldn't make a new ATH in this rise, has a longer road ahead.
Although it's good that ETH has been strengthening lately, it still hasn't brought the desired movement. While ETHBTC is holding up well, it's important to remember that it's still at a critical threshold. I think the biggest obstacle ahead is the 2850 region. After staying above this region, I believe ETH's rises will accelerate. This week's implied volatility range is between 3075 and 2400.
The price's rapid rise at critical thresholds is quite positive. While the resistances ahead of BTC are much tighter, ETH has a more spaced structure. For this reason, it moves faster to the next one after closings above one area. For October 25 contracts, there's a very dense call contract at 3000, while put contracts are concentrated at 2300 and 2400. With a Put/Call Ratio of 0.94, the market's expectation might be that ETH's movements up and down will be sharp again. I don't want to see prices below 2700 for ETH, a drop to 2650 at most is necessary for continuity, below that I'd think the price is losing strength.
On the ETHBTC side, I'm hopeful as long as the price doesn't stay below 0.0384, and this area is holding the price quite well so far. I don't expect closings below this anymore. If there's movement in this direction, I'll adjust my positions. This week it wanted to make a new low again but bounced from 0.0384 and started to rise. Sharp rises will start after it gets above the 0.042 area.
Overall, I think it makes sense to buy November contracts now. I have a November 29, 3000 contract for ETH, I'm waiting for a suitable area to add more. The price movement until the elections might push the price up to 3300. If Trump doesn't win the elections, we might see the sudden sell-off there, or it might continue its rise from there, in my opinion. For this reason, buying rise contracts now and buying a fall contract for hedging before election day could be considered.
Have a good week everyone, hoping to see more green. Please, don't forget to leave your opinions and comments and like the article.
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