What happens in the next 2 days is part of a far larger game, sadly that game also effects Crypto price in a big way.
July 9th 2PM UTC
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will testify before the finance committee
July 10th- 2PM UTC
Jerome Powell will resume day 2 of testifying before the finance committee.
Things to note,
This will be Powells last scheduled public address to congress before elections
What Powell says will have far greater impact than what Yellen says.(Yellen is speaking for Bidens economic policy,it wont have as much effect this close to elections)
The Fed(Including Powell) is an independent government agency(Central Bank), they are not controlled or funded by either party or the President.
I have including these election odds because these mattter more than ever, including for the short term price of Crypto.
After Bidens horrendous showing in the first presidential debate it was widely speculated he would drop out, in the days that followed Harris overtook Biden as the odds on favorite to run against Trump.
Since then Biden has firmly denied any chance he will drop out, he has even gone on national TV and done high profile interviews to enforce he will run in this election.
What the FED does now is KEY!
As noted the Fed, Chaired by Jerome Powell is an independent Government agency responsible for the central banks policy, they are not funded from the government budget, they are however accountable to congress and the American people for their monetary Policy.
Only a fool would be naive enough to believe the FED, including Powell and all its voting members have 0 political agenda this close to election.
In the next 2 days the democrats will be pushing for a clear indication of an interest rate cut, either in July but more likely in September, they need this as the US economy is either already in a hidden recession or on the brink of recession, the American people are already feeling the pressure of this higher for longer stance, these are the people who will decide the next president.
Keeping rates higher and putting more stress on the American economy and a vast number of its population would empower Trump and his campaign even more, one of Trumps many campaign promises is to lower Interest rates and taxes.
The American economy could already be passed the point of a "Soft landing", any shocks in the coming days will likely be politically motivated.
Things that could shock the market in the next 2 days,
Powell makes a July interest rate cut a realistic possibilty, this would without question be politically motivated to help the cause of the democratic party, it would also send stocks and crypto up A LOT.
Powell says the economy and the labour market is strong and the Feds higher for longer stance is working and needs more time, decreasing the odds of a September cut, once again this would be politically motivated and favour the republican party, the US economy and the labour market are not fine.
Please note that no interest rate decisions happen in August, its July or September for the near term.
The wider market is also waiting to see what happens in the comings day, the start of the week has shown total indecision in the market, Gold price has lost its Friday gains, the S&P500 started today up but has since lost its early gains, the DXY has made up for some of its losses last week.
If we were not so close to election i would see this as a Bullish opportunity for Crypto (Short term), not because i think the US economy is fine, i think the total opposite.
I can name 50 readings that show the US economy is on the brink of recession(or crash) but for now they mean little for the short term price.
I know, and so do all the hedge funds and market movers, that before a recession or crash, the FED will make drastic, last gasp moves , these moves will lead to a last Euphoric phase before the bubble bursts.(This is only if the FED have no political agenda)
This is why i am monitoring other markets so closely, unfortunately this close to an election it adds a level of uncertainty that nobody(without insider knowledge) can predict.
If the Fed is not corrupted and has no political agenda then Powells testimony in the next 2 days should keep the odds of a September cut and possibly 1 more in November/December as the likely outcome.
What is said in the next 2 days will have huge implications as to how Crypto, S&P500, Gold and the DXY price reacts.(It will effect everything, these just give a basic market understanding)
I have no insider knowledge and also little trust in any system when the stakes are this high.
If you want to enter positions now then do so in Spot or extremely low leverage or margin.
I cant stress enough how volatile the next few days will be, there is huge uncertainty across the markets, across the world, when that pent up uncertainty hits the market it will create havoc short term, especially to high leverage and margin.
Please trade safely.
Peace
#TheWolfThatWins #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #Market_Update #MtGoxJulyRepayments