Currently, market sentiment is gradually declining from a state of extreme greed to the greed zone, with today's greed index at 79. Recent positive news is gradually reflecting in the market, and overall liquidity remained low during Christmas yesterday. Fortunately, the key PCE data released before Christmas was positive, stabilizing the downward trend to some extent. In the short term, the market is expected to show more volatility, and this trend may continue into early January.
The upcoming January may be dominated by a bull market narrative. First, around January 6, FTX's first compensation of about $16 billion will be released into the market. After that, all eyes will be on President Trump's inauguration on January 20. Trump's stimulus policies, the potential for relaxing regulations on cryptocurrencies, and the possibility of making Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset for the U.S. are all to be expected, and this narrative could become a catalyst for a massive bull market.
After yesterday's rebound, Bitcoin consolidated yesterday, rising slightly to around $99,963 before starting to decline. We are just a step away from breaking through $100,000 again, but due to the lack of liquidity in the market around the Christmas holiday, a strong bullish breakout is not easy. Therefore, the current range is likely to continue to consolidate sideways, and the current position is close to the upper limit of the range, so you should also be mindful of the downside risk.
From a medium to long-term perspective, Bitcoin has been stabilizing above the MA30 moving average, which is at the boundary between bullish and bearish. In the KDJ indicator, the three lines have converged to form a golden cross, and if volume increases, this cross may spread. A positive trend is expected in January. The main support level is anticipated at $97,000, while the main resistance level is around $100,000.