1) Lack of Retail Participation from Korea and the U.S. Premium
Retail investors in Korea and the U.S. are showing passive participation in the recent Bitcoin rally, as reflected by the lack of change in Taker volume. This contrasts with past surges, where retail activity was more pronounced. The muted response suggests the current rally is not driven by fresh capital inflows but rather a limited group of participants, raising questions about its sustainability.
2) Range-Bound Market with High Open Interest
Despite the price increase, Bitcoin has been trading within a tight range for months. Open Interest has remained elevated, indicating speculative positions continue to drive the market. The combination of high Open Interest and low spot volume highlights that this rally lacks the fundamental support of strong buying interest, further reinforcing the speculative nature of the movement.
3) Short-Term Price Increase Driven by Derivatives
The recent rise appears to be driven by derivatives trading, fueled by improved macroeconomic conditions such as easing interest rate hikes. Derivative volumes have surged, pushing prices higher in the short term. However, this rally lacks broad support from spot markets, suggesting that the increase is more of a temporary uptick than a structural market shift.
4) Stagnant Spot Volume
The lack of strong spot buying interest and stagnant Taker volume further reinforce the view that this rally may be short-lived. Retail participation remains subdued, casting doubt on the broader market’s confidence. Without stronger retail involvement, the market is likely to remain range-bound or see a correction.
[Comment]
The current Bitcoin rally is primarily derivative-driven with limited retail participation, particularly from Korea and the U.S. Elevated Open Interest and low spot volumes suggest that the market is being driven by speculative posi
Written by Wenry
