📊 Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) is a critical metric for understanding Bitcoin's market dynamics. When we talk about Bitcoin Days, we refer to the number of days a particular Bitcoin remains unspent. For instance, if 1 BTC is held for 100 days, it accumulates 100 Bitcoin Days. When that Bitcoin is eventually spent, those 100 days are "destroyed." This concept, known as Bitcoin Days Destroyed, serves as an indicator of the movement of long-held coins by long-term holders (LTHs), often considered smart money.

🚀 Market Peaks and Long-Term Holders: In the past, significant peaks in Bitcoin's price have been preceded by a sharp increase in Bitcoin Days Destroyed, signaling the distribution of old coins by these LTHs. Notably, in late 2017, 2021, and 2024, we observed this pattern, where LTHs started to offload their Bitcoin holdings, leading to heightened market activity and eventually, price peaks.

⚖️ Supply Adjustment: To account for the growing Bitcoin supply over time, we can apply a supply adjustment multiplier, leading to the Terminal Adjusted Coin Days Destroyed metric. This adjustment ensures that the data reflects more recent conditions in the market, rather than just magnifying older data.

🔍 Key Indicators: When analyzing the 90-day moving average (90DMA) of the Terminal Adjusted Coin Days Destroyed, a value surpassing 18 million serves as a warning signal for Bitcoin's bull cycle. Similarly, when the 200-day moving average (200DMA) exceeds 16 million, it also indicates increased risk. These thresholds have proven to be key indicators of market risk during previous cycles.

📈 Investor Strategy: Monitoring these metrics allows investors to better anticipate potential market tops and take precautionary measures, particularly when these thresholds are breached.

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