Unfortunately, many speculators, businessmen, entrepreneurs, traders, etc., do not attach significant importance to the term 'geopolitics.'
And that's a mistake.
Indeed, the global political landscape, relations between countries, the intricate schemes of major transnational corporations (which also play a significant role in state politics), the actions of leading world powers, and so on— all of this determines the direction of the economy as a whole (thus influencing the crypto market, stock market), plays a role in the movement of capital worldwide, and impacts business sentiments in specific regions and much more.
Moreover, if we approach this issue from a practical standpoint, understanding global political processes in the world can be very beneficial.
For instance, with a clear overview of the complete picture unfolding on the planet, you're less likely to escape from one war (say, in Ukraine) only to find yourself in another (perhaps in Israel?). Or invest in real estate in a risky location that might depreciate overnight or turn into ruins. And so on.
In essence, let's delve into it and gain a comprehensive understanding!
Impact of Geopolitics on the Economy and Markets (with Examples)
I will begin with examples of how geopolitics influences markets, business, and more. Towards the end, I will discuss how to understand and make personal forecasts in this context.
Example 1: Uranium
As known, for decades, many African countries essentially functioned as colonies of the United States, France, England, etc. Western nations had significant influence over the governance (including military control) of these colonial countries, with corporations gladly exploiting cheap, almost free labor and extracting various natural resources from Africa.
One such crucial resource is uranium.
About 3-4 years ago, China and Russia began making substantial inroads into Africa. Without delving too deeply (interested parties can research this further), the end result was that forces from these countries, through military means, toppled the existing regimes. A series of coups occurred, leading to control over many African countries shifting to other hands.
The resolution occurred earlier this summer. Now, let's examine the Uranium chart after these events (Niger accounts for 5%-7% of the world's total uranium supply).
As a result, over 75% of the uranium supply suddenly came under the control of Kazakhstan and Russia. Countries under Russian influence, including those in Africa, gained control. Just three months after these events, we see a +45% growth and the President of France (which lost influence in Africa and its "free" uranium source) visiting Kazakhstan to negotiate uranium contracts.
A clear example of geopolitics influencing the asset's value.
Example 2: Geopolitical Uncertainty
Let's talk about one of the most interesting states for an investor—geopolitical uncertainty. Using the recent conflict between HAMAS and Israel as an example.
The war began on October 6. It is an event challenging to predict. Will there be an escalation? Will neighboring countries join the fight? How will the U.S. and Israel respond militarily? The reactions of the public, and so on—no one knows.
While geopolitical risks can be managed, geopolitical threats can be neutralized, geopolitical uncertainty is impervious to any influence.
However, for an investor, this is an ideal situation. When we see global commotion starting, and markets are yet to react.
So, the situation between Israel and HAMAS.
Firstly, the mere occurrence of this war at the most opportune time makes one ponder. Looking at U.S. Treasuries and the government bond market, it has been facing serious difficulties lately, with demand for treasuries at an all-time low. In short, the U.S. government debt is becoming increasingly challenging to finance. Right at that moment, when I expected a complete collapse and a journey to space for Treasuries, the war began.
Panic, fear, and money did flow into treasuries.
A very strange coincidence of the war's start with significant issues in the charts. Additionally, this concerns Israel, practically having the most serious external intelligence in the world. Yet, they couldn't foresee HAMAS's attack, who craft rockets from pipes...okay.
By the way, we also have the fact of Israel's peculiar behavior during COVID, almost compulsory vaccination multiple times for the entire population, the world's strictest anti-COVID measures. Oh well, off-topic again. We'll talk about the pharma-mafia in the next articles... back to the point.
Treasuries showed some signs of life, but not for long. Large capitals, buying treasury securities to hedge against inflation, namely transnational corporations, major countries, etc., also remembered gold. Money flowed there too, and the bond market resumed serious difficulties.
Here is another example of geopolitics influencing markets. After the start of the war between Israel and HAMAS, the task that investors faced was to determine whether there would be escalation or complicating of the conflict.
Prices of gold, the energy market, oil, the value of stocks of companies servicing the military-industrial complex, etc., all depended on the course of the conflict. Even inflation indicators indirectly depended on the war in Israel, as it is closely linked to strategic reserves of oil.
In turn, inflation significantly affects the entire macroeconomy and the actions of the Federal Reserve. And the actions of the Federal Reserve directly influence both the traditional market and the crypto market, among many other things.
In short, the resulting chain is quite long. And this is just one of the many branches in the overall structure of the conflict's impact on the global economy.
Thus, by conducting a thorough analysis on October 6-8 when all this began, it was entirely possible to conclude that the war would not be quick.
Everything indicated it: the sentiments and plans of neighboring countries, statements from leaders, the behavior of the U.S., Pentagon, Israel, and Palestinian authorities, the historical backdrop of the conflict, the current global East vs. West confrontation, and dozens of other factors.
And in the following two weeks, the market reacted accordingly—growth in the stocks of energy companies. This includes the announcement of a possible embargo on oil products from Iran, which was also generally expected.
Therefore, this is another vivid example of geopolitics influencing market behavior.
Example 3: COVID-19
I won't delve into theories of conspiracy regarding the sudden appearance of such a massive event, but whenever such large-scale events occur, it's essential to examine the foreign policies of some states, major transnational corporations (which often influence a country's policy due to their unimaginable capital), and look for non-obvious connections.
December 2019 - January 2020. Suddenly, COVID emerges in China, and almost immediately, there are warnings about the risk of a major global pandemic. The media actively prepares the population for the spread of the virus beyond China.
No market reactions.
Once again, we find ourselves witnessing political uncertainty. Anti-COVID measures, an energy crisis (with a minus sign), active quantitative easing, and injecting money into the economy—all are somehow related to a country's policy (more with its internal affairs) regarding COVID.
Agreed, predicting the consequences precisely was challenging, but at the very least, every reasonable investor should have considered the possibility of a major pandemic. And all the consequences that follow.
Firstly, oil prices plummeted. By April 2020, we saw negative futures on BRENT (because there was nowhere to store it). The drop from $70 to zero in just a couple of months was naturally due to reduced consumption—a highly predictable outcome. This could have been anticipated during the period of political uncertainty in December-January.
Similarly, the massive stimulation of the economy and the launch of the printing press were expected. There were no other options to prevent a total economic collapse when everything "stood still," and people were forced to stay home.
From February onwards, we witnessed a powerful injection of helicopter money into the economy. It was enough to look at the dynamics of the disease, assess the timing and effectiveness of the implemented anti-COVID measures to forecast further economic stimulation. The steady increase in M2 was evident. Money printed and injected into the economy would inevitably lead to the growth of risk markets—an ideal opportunity for investors to ride the SPX 500 or Bitcoin.
Can the origin of the pandemic be attributed to geopolitics? I believe so, without further comment on this matter to avoid unnecessary conflicts with readers.
Example 4: Dubai
Let's take a look at the policies of the UAE towards the population of all countries. When there is geopolitical tension worldwide, negative events like wars, migrations, etc., the Emirates flourish.
Everyone heads to Dubai because it's almost the only place on the planet where the majority of the population is not native and not citizens of the UAE. Mostly, they are expatriates, and everyone is simultaneously both insiders and outsiders. Meanwhile, the government stays slightly in the background, allowing people from different countries to feel at home. Thanks to such a policy, this neutral territory indeed becomes a second home for many.
So, the high achievements in the economy, tourism, creating a favorable business climate, etc.—all of this is the result of the internal (mostly) and external policies of the UAE authorities.
Certainly, as an investor in business or real estate in the UAE, I would not overlook the tense situation in the Middle East. The absence of robust military defense for the UAE and potential conflicts of interest between the UAE and Arab neighbors. The location is quite "hot," so in this case, before investing, it is crucial to conduct an analysis of both the internal and external policies of the Dubai sheikhs.
How to start understanding geopolitics?
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