At present, Mentougou has recovered 140,000 BTC (about 9 billion US dollars), and the potential selling pressure has caused a certain degree of panic in the market. On June 24, the Mentougou trustee announced that it would start the repayment of BTC and BCH in July this year, involving crypto assets worth up to 9 billion US dollars. Affected by this, the crypto market staged a "diving" market, and Bitcoin once fell below the 60,000 US dollar mark.

It is reported that Mentougou has a total of 127,000 creditors (Japanese users account for less than 1%), and it needs to repay 142,000 BTC (currently worth about 8.58 billion US dollars) and 143,000 BCH (worth about 53.311 million US dollars) to creditors.

However, the impact of Mentougou's selling may be exaggerated, and it is not a one-time compensation for all assets. Its repayment plan includes basic repayment and proportional repayment. The basic repayment part allows the first 200,000 yen claimed by each creditor to be paid in yen, and the proportional repayment provides creditors with two flexible options, namely "early lump-sum repayment" or "mid-term repayment and final repayment". Among them, the early lump-sum repayment method can only allow creditors to obtain partial compensation. The part exceeding 200,000 yen allows creditors to choose a mixture of BTC, BCH and yen or pay the full amount in legal currency. Mentougou has set the deadline for basic repayment, early lump-sum repayment and mid-term repayment as October 31, 2024, but if creditors want to obtain a higher proportion of compensation, they may have to wait five to nine years. At the end of 2023, many Mt.Gox creditors stated that they had received the first compensation denominated in yen. The upcoming compensation plan is the first time that Mt.Gox has repaid in the form of BTC and BCH. #门头沟事件

#Sats
Through careful observation of the past few days, I found that the dealer's control method is quite scheming.

It will not soar or plummet, and the fluctuation range is within 5%, and sometimes even within 1~2%. This approach prevents you from doing swing trading, because the handling fee is not enough for swing trading, and you can basically not make any money by opening a contract!

So the result he wants most is that you either cut your losses or lie flat, and then slowly smooth out the edges and corners of the impatient people, wash off the car, and it will rise little by little!

I have to say that this dealer really understands human nature!

Including now, there are many coins that are also in this trend, and the trend is getting more and more convergent, as if waiting for the signal gun of the big cake ether, ready to go, ready to move, just waiting for the signal of the market. Once the horn of the charge sounds, it depends on who rushes faster. $SOL #美联储何时降息？

For Auntie, we should first pay attention to the resistance around 3380. We have mentioned before that this is the bottom-top conversion of the lower edge of the box.

Given that the big cake has touched 70,000 and broken the previous high of this month, and Auntie's rebound is weak, although the recent rebound trend is not strong, it is also prevented from making up for the rise. #比特币大会 $BTC $ETH

Ether short near 3380, defense 3430, target 3150 ​

In the 4-hour market, it fell directly after touching 70,000, and fell below the 60-day moving average for 4 consecutive days. It got support and rebounded slightly around 65,800. The Bollinger Bands opened slightly and the short-term moving average turned downward.

Secondly, around the middle track, the MACD fast and slow lines ran downward and approached the 0 axis. The volume column increased. The KDJ turned upward near the 0 value. The VR indicator consolidated near the 80 value.

Overall, the short-term rebound is still optimistic. The key resistance level above 68,000-68,500 will still go down if it cannot break through. In the long run, if the market cannot stand above 70,000 in one fell swoop, it will be difficult for the bulls to continue #比特币大会 $BTC $ETH

Big cake is short near 67,500, defend 68,200, and target 65,000

##比特币大会 $SOL $BNB $PEPE Will this wave be like the last bull market, with thousands of altcoins flying together?

From the current situation, the market is already very saturated, with tens of thousands of altcoins competing to be listed to attract liquidity, and some projects have a new one launched almost every three days. Compared with the last bull market, this time is much more difficult. If you still hold the mentality of the last bull market, you may find it difficult to cope with the current situation.

At present, hot money in the market is chasing hot spots. Although it seems difficult, altcoins cannot do without several hot topics: AI sector, meme sector and RWA sector.

Things are constantly evolving and developing. At present, there is fierce competition among altcoins in the market. By the end of the bull market, many projects will inevitably return to zero, and then a new ecosystem will rise again.

Let me talk about some key events today

1: SOND04 is ok, finally I don't need to put my wallet in it, I can withdraw to Ouyi

2: The Bitcoin Cash (BCH) conference will be held in Buenos Aires, Argentina from October 12 to 14, 2024. The prince has been really tough these days, don't short it

3: The stabilization of the big cake at 70,000 means that the 4-month wash cycle of the currency circle has ended, and the next copycat will take off #比特币大会 $BTC

Bitcoin weekly line is about to close. After a golden needle bottoming action on the weekly line, the overall price has been effectively supported at the 64,000 line.

Although the short-term four-hour line remains in the rising channel, the gradual closing of boll shows that the bulls have a certain strength.

The upsurge just now in the one-hour line shows our judgment on the daily line. Based on the above suggestions, Bitcoin will mainly go long in the subsequent steady correction during the day.

More than 68,000-67,500, defend 600 points, and target 800-1000 points or more #比特币大会 $BTC $

Rely on precise ideas to arrive successfully and perfectly. Strike while the iron is hot to plan the next month's sailing situation, professional online unwinding, and help you set sail for your wealth dream.

This week's students who turned over the Cang have landed. This month is about to end, and the new January is coming. Those who want to keep up with the Fan Cang plan, come! It's better to do it once than to say a thousand words. Practice is the only criterion for testing the truth! #比特币大会 $BTC $SOL

The trend of Ethereum in this round is not satisfactory. Bitcoin has fluctuated after reaching a new high. Ethereum has not reached a new high and the ETF has increased by 20% in a single day.

The short-term correction support position is 3100-2970. It has only reached around 3100 and was pulled up by Bitcoin’s rebound.

At present, Ethereum is a little weak. You can try to short around 3280 and look at the 3100-3000 range. After reaching it, look at the strength of the decline. If Bitcoin continues to fall, Ethereum will fall below the 2860 support and go to 2500. Seize the opportunity to enter the market.

Short Ethereum around 3280-3330, defend above 3370, and target 3100$ETH #美国PCE通胀放缓

Judging from today's market trend, the current short-term coin price is in a correction trend. There is still a certain distance from the resistance of 68500. The current position of 67500 is the key point of the short-term long-short watershed.

Technically, the daily line is still short-term. The decline will continue in the short term today. The 4-hour K-line Bitcoin has signs of rebound in the short term. The suppression is also at 68500, and the K-line technical pattern of the head and shoulders top is falling.

So in the short term, it can be treated as short below 68500. If the bulls want to act, it is not too late to wait for the price to stabilize above 68000 before making a layout. #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ $BTC $ETH

68200-67700 short, stop loss above 68600, target 66800-66300, continue to break down and look at around 65500

During Trump's speech last night, Bitcoin once again went through a deep V-shaped trend in a short period of time. It first fell by $1,200 in the short term and fell below the $67,000 mark. At the end of the speech, it rose violently again, recovering all the losses and returning to the starting point of 69,000.

Then let's take a look at what other important events will happen next week: First and foremost, the most important thing is to pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and the US non-farm payrolls report, which will have an important impact on the currency circle. Although the market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, investors will pay attention to whether Powell's speech will change due to the higher-than-expected inflation report this week. In addition, there are other important economic data releases, such as job vacancies, consumer confidence surveys, Bank of Japan interest rate decisions, ADP employment data, Bank of England interest rate announcements, unemployment applications and manufacturing PMI, etc. #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ $BTC $ETH

Finally, taking into account the price range, timeframe, time angle, and seasonality, we are approaching a mid-August window that could very well be a trigger point for BTC. If that wasn’t enough evidence, note that the start date on the BTC chart is August 19th. I won’t dwell on this too much, but birthdates are important, and August is typically the month when major bull runs begin.

This is why I am being cautious here, and waiting for this window to close before moving more aggressively. Will we see an ETH ETF finally begin trading, followed by a rapid decline like the BTC ETF? Or will we see more political headlines sparking election uncertainty? I’m not entirely sure what it will be, but this is definitely a period to watch and be patient. #美联储何时降息？

Finally, from a time frame perspective, the market has been following a 150-day cycle pattern in this cycle: 155 days of ups and 150 days of consolidation. It is important to note that the balance of market time should not be imbalanced. That is, the number of days the market is down should not be more than the number of days it is up. In a bull market, the market will usually be up for longer than it is down, as shown in the chart below. If the market is down for more days than the previous 150 days and a new low is made, this will not be a good sign. #美联储何时降息？

It also shows that during this cycle, the market made significant highs and lows around the 30-week inflection point in a relatively tight time window.

Now let's look at it from a time perspective. Simply put, time perspective means counting 30 calendar days from a significant high or low and looking for a change in trend. You just start at 30 and add up to 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180, etc. and look for trend changes at these points. The more concentrated the time point, the more important that day or week is.

As the chart below shows, all of these time measurements fall within a window of time angles. We have several major highs and lows during this cycle that point to the second week of August being a major convergence period. #美联储何时降息？

Now, based on the evidence we have, this market is in a different phase, and in my opinion, the inflection point is more likely to come in the form of a major low than a major high. But as I have been saying, in these cycles, we tend to see a major high and low at the same time in this window of time.

The chart below shows this particular period in each cycle, and what it looked like last year at this time in this cycle. As you can see, there is almost always a sharp move up in August, followed by a rapid decline that can be as much as 20-50%. Last year is different from the other three charts because it was only in the second year of the cycle, but it shows the seasonality of this type of move happening in August. #美联储何时降息？

Also, zoom in a little more on the weekly chart. I note that the time from the 2017 high to the first significant high in 2021 is 174 weeks. August 12th will mark 174 weeks from that significant high in April 2021, which was undoubtedly a significant high. Therefore, we are approaching the same time period between two important inflection points, the 2017 high and the April 2021 high. #美联储何时降息？

Moving on to the weekly chart, there is more to discuss. First, we see that there is a major trend change every 30 weeks in this cycle. But what is interesting is that these 30 week cycles are right between a major low and a major high, occurring at the same time. I will explain why in the next few charts, but for now, the next 30 week cycle is right in the week of August 12th. These three 30 week cycles combined give a total of 90 weeks from the bear market low. #美联储何时降息？

The monthly chart is what we focused on last week, but to further prove that we are in the same cycle, we have also added the months of the previous tops. As you can see, the previous two cycles are almost identical to the current cycle. 33 months from the major high and 20 months from the major low both put us in this time period from July to September, which was the last low before the big move higher.

Editor's note: Digital Asset Research uses detailed time range, price range and time angle data to show the high probability of major events or news from August 6 to 12. The article also compares the current market cycle with previous cycles, points out the time patterns of market trend changes, and provides sufficient evidence combined with monthly and weekly chart analysis.

This is something I’ve been discussing publicly for some time, but today I’d like to reconfirm that the evidence suggests there could be a very significant trend and sentiment shift in BTC and the broader cryptocurrency market between August 6th and 12th.

I first mentioned this time period a few months ago in a video outlook, which you can find here .

Today I will present all the evidence that I build step by step based on time frame, price range and time perspective. I think you'll see a high probability of a major event or news happening within this time window.

We'll start with the monthly chart and work our way up to the daily chart to show the confluence of multiple factors we're seeing.

Evening benefits🧧

The current price of Bitcoin is short, look down to 66,000, and defend 68,500!
Ethereum entered the market simultaneously, looking at 3150 and defending 3300!

The above suggestions are for reference only! Bear any losses at your own risk#美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH