The pancake is currently following the established trend, but it is crucial to be vigilant about the following points: It is essential to ensure that it does not fall below the blue parallel channel, which is a critical support line. Once it is breached, the next key defense line will be the key ice point of 91,000 and the round figure of 90,000. If these two defense lines are also broken, the market may face the risk of a sharp decline! Stay alert.

Tonight's major non-farm payroll report is coming, and it is expected that BTC will end its downward trend and rise by 5000 points. This week, BTC has dropped over 10,000 points in a continuous 5-day decline. If such a magnitude of correction is still not enough to stabilize the bubble, then a trust crisis for BTC will arise. The long-term technical support is around 85127, so the market will gradually enter the buying pre-heating stage. In the short term, multiple indicators on the 4-hour chart are entering a bottom divergence, and bullish buying will dominate. The target for BTC is around 91900, and it can definitely go long, with a target of 97200.

On the short-term hourly chart of Bitcoin, the Bollinger Bands are in an opening position, with the market operating above the upper band. All moving averages show an upward momentum, but the price is facing upward pressure, and the short-term trend has begun to encounter resistance and pullback. Currently, the price is running around the 102000 position. The short-term trend has entered a pullback rhythm, and the focus will be on the support level around the 100000 mark. If the pullback does not break below this level, the market will enter a high-level consolidation phase. The strategy remains to maintain high shorts and low longs.
Short position on Bitcoin: Lightly short in the 103000-103500 range, targeting 500-1000 points, with a stop loss at 104700.
Short position on Ethereum: Short in the 3730-3780 range, with a stop loss of 30 points and a target of 50-100 points.

Today's analysis has been fully completed, precisely grasped

From the daily line, today KDJ and MACD golden cross resonate and rise, BOLL currency price rises to the upper track area, and then falls back, which shows that the short-term rising space is relatively closed when the upper track is not opened, so the short-term intraday estimate is still to make shock adjustments near the pressure level
Big cake: 98500-98000, target 100000 　　 　　
Auntie: 3620-3600 near the dot, target 3700 　　 　　

If the 99.4K test fails, a short-term pullback may occur. In this case, the 20-day and 60-day moving averages and 97.5K can be considered as key support targets in phases, looking for short-term entry opportunities during the pullback.
The current psychological resistance level of 100k is just ahead, and it is recommended to observe whether the lows continue to rise within a sufficient pullback area, maintaining rebound expectations. If the lows are broken, the test time for 100,000 dollars may be delayed. If the big pie stabilizes above yesterday's high of 98.5K, the bullish expectation can continue throughout the day.
​The big pie is in the range of 99700-100000, target 98200.
​The aunt is in the range of 3680-3700, target 3600.

Today, Tencent News has pushed the trend of Dabing for 25 years, indicating that Dabing will get better and better #2025有哪些关键叙事？

Although the trend has broken on the short-term chart, it is still holding the previous high. The second support of 96k is also the previous high area, and it is also an opportunity to buy at a very short-term low.

Pie is lightly positioned in the 96500-96000 range, target: 97300-97800
​Yi Tai is lightly positioned in the 3440-3420 range, target 3500-3520

From the daily chart perspective, the appearance of consecutive bullish candles signifies that the recovery action of the market has achieved a phased result, and the upward trend is still continuing to ferment, with the bullish atmosphere in the market gradually intensifying. Considering the current technical patterns and market sentiment, in terms of early positioning, we can focus on low-level opportunities for recovery.

Bitcoin retraces to around 96500-96000, target 98000-99000.
Ethereum retraces to around 3420-3390, target near 3550.

Tonight at 21:30, the initial jobless claims will be announced. Pay close attention to this data, prepare early to induce a rally, clear positions, and then come in for a sell-off.

2025 Non-Farm Payroll Schedule

From the daily chart of Bitcoin, it is currently experiencing three consecutive red candlesticks, with the price consistently above the MA60 daily moving average as previously analyzed. The short-term resistance level is seen at the MA30 daily moving average at the 9.83 line.
From the daily chart of Yitai, the price has recently stopped falling and rebounded around the 3300 line. The price is currently at the daily MA60 moving average at 3430, and we should pay attention to whether the price can break through and stabilize above the 3430 resistance level.

Morning thoughts accurately grasp 800 points

The market is under pressure and has retreated. The current price is fluctuating back and forth within a range, entering a period of consolidation. The current price is around 94500, and it is expected to further test downward in the short term. The current trend is approaching the middle track support. If the price breaks down below this, there is a risk that the market may further test the 93000 level. The overall trend of Bitcoin still maintains a wide range of fluctuations, and since there has been no breakthrough of the support and resistance levels, the operation should maintain a strategy of selling high and buying low.
For Bitcoin, try light positions in the 94800-95300 range with a target of 500-1000 points, defend at 96000, and set a stop loss of 500 points.
For Ether, try in the 3380-3410 range with a stop loss of 30 points and a target of 50-100 points.

The BTC MA60 daily moving average of 93300 serves as a key support level at present. As long as it is not completely lost, entry remains possible.
BTC around 93300, target 94200
ETH around 3320, target 3400

From the 1-hour line of the big cake, the big cake rose and fell last night, reaching the highest point near 96,300 points, and then began to decline. However, it is almost bottoming out and has a tendency to rebound upward. Operation suggestions: Big cake is in the range of 92,800-93,500, and it is expected to rise to 96,500. Second cake is in the range of 3,280-3,330, and it is expected to rise to 3,450.

1. Rapid rises and slow declines indicate accumulation. A quick surge followed by a gradual pullback suggests that the market maker is accumulating shares in preparation for the next upward movement.

2. Rapid declines and slow rises indicate distribution. A sharp drop followed by a slow increase indicates that the market maker is gradually selling off, and the market may enter a downtrend.

3. Don't panic sell at high volume tops, exit quickly at low volume. High volume at the top suggests there may still be upward momentum; if volume at the top decreases and the upward momentum weakens, it's time to exit quickly.

4. Don't act impulsively at the initial volume increase at the bottom, wait for sustained volume before re-entering. Initial volume at the bottom may just be a continuation of the downtrend, so further observation is needed; sustained volume indicates continued inflow of capital, at which point buying can be considered.

5. Trading cryptocurrencies is about emotions; consensus is reflected in trading volume. Market sentiment drives the fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices, while trading volume reflects market consensus and investor trends!

Bitcoin is experiencing short-term fluctuations, watch the 9000 support level.
Ethereum is fluctuating in the 3300-3444 range, caution is needed for a second test risk.
Bitcoin's target in the 93300-94100 range: 91500-90000.
Ethereum's target in the 3400-3440 range: 3300-3400.

Funding rate arbitrage is a trading strategy that utilizes the funding rate mechanism in the perpetual contract market, simultaneously opening opposing positions of equal value in both spot and perpetual contracts for the same cryptocurrency.

When the funding rate is positive, longs pay shorts; when the funding rate is negative, shorts pay longs.

The goal of funding rate arbitrage is to earn stable funding fee income through trading between the spot market and the perpetual contract market.

Funding rate arbitrage is mainly divided into two categories:

Forward arbitrage: Funding rate is positive, borrow cryptocurrency to buy spot, short perpetual contracts.

Reverse arbitrage: Funding rate is negative, borrow cryptocurrency to sell spot, long perpetual contracts.

Reverse arbitrage carries higher risks, so forward arbitrage is recommended.

The four-hour K-line has returned to the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.786 at the balance point of 94300. Whether the market can form an inverse head and shoulders pattern still requires time to observe. The sideways range has been determined for now, with MACD starting to expand. DIF and DEA have formed a golden cross, indicating a potential bullish trend. Therefore, friends choosing to go short above 95000 should remember to set stop-losses; safety first. The Bollinger Bands are still in a downward trend, with the upper resistance level at 95800.
Bitcoin is fluctuating around 92000 to 91500, with a defense level at 90700, and a target looking at 93000 to 94000.
Ether is fluctuating around 3300 to 3250, with a defense level at 3200, and a target looking at 3350 to 3400.