People who were whitewashing zks a few days ago are now scolding L0.
$ZK on Binance is a turning point in the cryptocurrency circle. Rat trading will be the norm in the future. Even if you are told that it is 100% rat trading, you can't do anything about it.
No one is to blame for this. It is the collective choice of retail investors. For future airdrops, either give up directly or squeeze into the top 10% and eat the soup left by rat trading.
There is no point in scolding L0. Either play or___
$AMPL: AMPL is a capital spiral model. The premise for the emergence of Fomo is that the market sentiment and liquidity are good and risk funds are willing to actively participate
$FXS , $SNX : These two secondary losses are huge, and they are directly cut in half. ETH is a value coin trap
$METIS : Eat ETH's dividends, follow ETH, a relatively neutral standard
Thinking:
In this round of bull market, the difficulty of making money has increased a lot compared with the past. There is still no carnival of the past cottage season, and there is not even a decent core sector. In the past rounds, the standard such as MEME was the late charge and the end. As a result, MEME became the charge standard in this round. Is it also the end standard? It is not known yet.
The root cause may be the lack of market liquidity as everyone says, but it is more likely because of the weakness of the endogenous narrative in the currency circle. All the narratives in this round are very bland and even ridiculous. Look at Nvidia in the US stock market. As long as it is strong enough, no one can suppress it and it keeps reaching new highs.
This is the reason. It is still not good enough and cannot bring externalities. Only you can do it. Even if you encounter a liquidity crisis, you will rebound rapidly in the future.
This is the fundamental reason why this round of bull market is difficult to play. The narrative is broken. There is only endless pvp in the market, and pvp is dead silent in the end.
Suggestions:
Before a new narrative that can stimulate the vitality of the currency circle is born, everyone's investment should be more conservative, such as position control and stop loss. Don't stick to one coin, because the current cottage market does not allow such operations. Whoever is stubborn will die more miserably.
How to distinguish high-quality altcoins from junk altcoins?
(Other factors are excluded here, and only the analysis is done from the perspective of whether additional issuance is possible, the issuance volume and the circulation volume)
Characteristics of junk altcoins:
1. Coins that are continuously inflated and issued, the most typical example is: $DOGE
2. Coins with an issuance volume of 1 billion or 10 billion, but a circulation volume of only hundreds of millions, tens of billions, or tens of billions, and more than 70 to 80% of the coins in the reservoir are waiting to be released to dilute the price, such as: $arb, $dym, $portal, $manta, $sei, $sui
Characteristics of high-quality altcoins:
1. Deflation coins: $BNB , $FLOKI , $shib, etc.
2. Fully circulated coins: $pepe, $bome, $people, $not, etc.
Obviously, 64500 is a standard technical support level in the left low-level oscillation range. In the case of weak supply, this is a good callback target point. So why is the supply weak?
Because the decline in trading volume at night did not exceed the supply column trading volume in the past two weeks, but there are indeed signs of gradual expansion;
So in the current market, the supply of funds on the market has been released, but the off-market funds are still uncertain. Considering the US stock market's explosion last night, which led to a rebound in BTC prices, the market after 64500 will be handed over to the US stock market.
At present, there is no obvious small-level trend in the US stock market, so before that, BTC will gradually enter a wait-and-see state;
Generally speaking, 1 to 2 a.m. is the time when the US stock market fluctuates the most, so according to the trend of the US stock market in the early morning, BTC has two options:
1. If the US stock market continues to soar with a daily RSI value of 82, BTC will not only stop falling, but also get a good rebound and return to the oscillation range above 65,000;
2. If the US stock market begins to pull back and the small-level cycle draws a door, then BTC will follow the trend and fall below the technical support level to the chip supply and demand level, which is the core chip control point of the left oscillation range VPVR, around 63,000, and then start a new oscillation in the 63,000~64,500 range.
But from the perspective of market sentiment, the pullback does not seem to be enough.
Because the long-term wide fluctuations give people an illusion that the price of BTC will always fluctuate within a large range
The most disgusting thing about this market is that it repeatedly feeds you sugar and gradually reduces your risk awareness until you begin to firmly believe that a certain price will never fall below and start to buy more as it falls.
The entire fluctuation range has almost no support from the supply and demand side of chips from below 61,000
When the price falls below 61,000 again, don't hold on, because there is at least a range of $10,000 below this position to get out of a smooth plunge!
1: This adjustment may be a double sawtooth adjustment;
2: If Bitcoin can break through 67720 or so in the form of a driving wave, it is expected to end this adjustment;
3: If it cannot break through 67720 or so in the form of a driving wave, it may continue to evolve downward into a 3-sawtooth or other more complex adjustment methods.
The first problem with the project is that the lock-up time is too abnormal. If you are not a close confidant of the project, they will lock you for 1 to 2 years before releasing it. In addition, the project will have a foundation. In fact, the foundation is replaced with some VCs to get out first. This is something that confidants can do.
For example, a16z, to put it bluntly, is endorsed by big VCs, and VCs that are neither big nor small are cut. And why are there so many insider positions in airdrops? In fact, most of them are also replaced first, and the tokens are given to big VCs and the team. In fact, the current token model is no longer what it says on the surface. What you see is that the team locks up for a few years, but in fact, they have already replaced it in advance when they go public. The parts that are actually locked are small VCs, so the current level is small VCs and the bottom leeks.
The price doesn't matter, as long as there is continuous liquidity to sell, so the $ARB , $STRK that you buy are not easy to rise, because they don't need to pull up, FDV is already worth billions of dollars, when the market is fomo, unlock more, when the market is fud, just draw a big pie. What everyone sees is that this project is invested by a16z, for example, it has completed financing of 100 million US dollars, in fact, it may have raised a few million US dollars, many so-called projects invested by a certain big VC are actually created by VC, and most of them have become white gloves. This kind of fig leaf is not suitable for public speaking.
One principle is: action circle < ability circle < cognitive circle. While constantly learning and expanding your cognitive circle, you also need to constantly narrow your action circle. There are many opportunities in web3, and it is easy to lose yourself. In many cases, even actions beyond your cognition and ability may bring positive feedback, but this positive feedback will often backfire on you with doubled negative feedback in the end.
From a technical perspective, I have set a few red lines for myself:
1. Only BTC/ETH/SOL are allocated for large positions;
2. The currency position is maintained at about 70% of the total position, not more than 80%;
3. 20-30% of the U/other asset positions, give up the secondary level, and continue to deepen the 1.5-level projects;
4. The number of participants in the 1.5-level projects has been reduced, but the projects that are optimistic about must be in the top 10% of the market for the project, or even higher; for the optimistic projects, enough chips must be placed;
Summarize several bottom-picking skills [learn more when the market is not good]
1. The daily K-line forms a double bottom pattern, and the right side of the bottom has begun to increase in volume. Once it breaks through the neckline, you can buy boldly.
2. The daily K-line forms a triple bottom pattern, and the right side of the bottom has begun to increase in volume. Once it breaks through the neckline, you can buy boldly.
3. The daily K-line forms a head and shoulders bottom pattern, and the right shoulder has begun to increase in volume and break through the neckline. You can buy boldly.
4. The daily K-line forms a small Yin and Yang pattern, and the right side of the bottom has begun to increase in volume moderately. Once it breaks through the top of the box, you can buy boldly.
5. The daily K-line forms an arc bottom pattern, and it has begun to increase in volume moderately recently, so you can buy boldly. There was an accelerated pit-digging decline, and then suddenly a continuous increase in volume broke through the previous falling Yin line. You can buy boldly when the callback is pulled back.
6. The daily KDJ indicator of the technical system and the 4-hour KDJ indicator are all below 20. When all the golden crosses resonate upward and diverge at low levels, it is a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity.
7. After a large positive line is closed with a large volume and breaks through the lifeline (the lifeline turns upward), it indicates that the market will rise sharply in the future, and you can buy decisively.
No matter when, no matter what the market situation is, it is normal. The only thing we can do is to adjust our mentality, deal with it calmly, and do what we should do!
$BTC $ETH Those who play with altcoins must pay attention!
1. Wall Street News directly said that altcoins are garbage dumps, and this bull market is led by Wall Street institutions.
2. The altcoins have fallen so much, but the total market value of altcoins is still at a historical high.
3. In the last round of bull market, new coins were generally launched with a market value of tens of millions, while in this round of bull market, new coins were generally launched with a market value of hundreds of millions, and there is a continuous unlocking.
4. So far, there has been no new ecological hotspot in Ethereum. The last round was NFT, what is this round?
5. In the past, retail investors speculated on coins randomly, but this round of institutional investors will not speculate on coins blindly. Coins in the AI sector? Are there any practical applications? In the past, retail investors did not consider or turned a blind eye to the problem, but institutions will consider it.
6. In the long run, the bear market of Shanzhai is actually a good thing for Shanzhai, as it can allow real projects to stand out. If all they do in the future is hype MEME and take advantage of the hot spots, Shanzhai will really become a garbage dump.
7. Shanzhai will definitely not have a general rise in the market. After this round of plummeting, institutions will only pull in coins with real potential and look for treasures in the garbage dump.
$BTC $ETH The cryptocurrency market is also having 618, clearance sale! It seems that this is not enough, there is a high probability that there will be bigger discounts later, wait patiently for the opportunity to buy
At this anxious moment, please remember one important thing and one point of view.
One important thing is that the Ethereum spot ETF will be listed sooner or later. It is just a matter of time. If you can hold on, you can catch up with another wave of crazy capital inflow.
One point of view is: any market crash without substantial negative news is rogue.
At present, there is no substantial negative news. At most, the analysis agency is bearish and the US interest rate cut is delayed. However, in the past 24 hours, the entire network has exploded 318 million US dollars, mainly in long orders. What is going on? After thinking about it, it can only be explained by the dealer's profit taking and deep wash.
10,000 so-called positive news are not as good as one substantial negative news
The leeks have become smarter. If you give me positive news, I will wait and see, and will not easily sell, so the currency cannot rise! There is little capital and poor liquidity, and recent practice has also proved this point.
But once there is negative news, they will not be polite, and they will cut their losses and leave the market, and some will swear to uninstall the exchange. Well, the market will naturally fall like a dog!
Institutions, VCs, and dealers all want to make money, and their appearance is really ugly. The leeks know it in their hearts, and the dealers know it in their hearts!
If you are not a short-term trader, why do you always stare at the rise and fall of the big cake and torture yourself?
Last night, $BTC went through the second MA120 defense battle. At the close of the morning, the air force retreated above the Fibonacci 0.382 of this rise. At present, the 4-hour, 6-hour, 8-hour, 12-hour and daily levels have formed a certain degree of downward divergence; above the daily level, it is better to say that the repair is not yet completed than to be bearish, just like we do not call the decline a decline, but negative growth
The cottage continues to bleed, and the big cake has returned with a needle. It is still the big cake, and the cottage has returned with a needle. It can't go back!
Introducing four practical techniques for buying hot coins at the bottom and escaping at the top!
First, when a product continues to hit new highs and then goes sideways, and then rushes up many times but the amplitude is not large and falls back many times, this is likely to be a signal of inducing more, so be especially vigilant.
Second, when the price of the currency fluctuates sideways at a low level, do not intervene easily. After it hits a new low again, if it can quickly recover all the K lines in the falling area and form a bottom divergence, it is a good time to buy the bottom.
Third, if a product goes sideways at the bottom for a long time, and then rises for a few days and breaks through the sideways range, and then falls back and falls below the previous sideways range, then when it starts again later, it is likely to usher in a larger wave of pull-ups.
Fourth, in the upward trend, the price of the currency falls slightly and the trading volume shrinks, and it is likely to continue to rise. But if it continues to hit new highs but the volume is shrinking, then be careful, this may be a signal of reaching the top.