泽-船长加密圈

#Bitcoin Digital Currency[Super Topic]#Don't listen to others' nonsense, every step of your life must rely on yourself. The years have aged your appearance, what is settled down is an unspeakable emotion. Time does not give us opportunities, but choices; if we do not understand how to choose, having more is also a waste. Life is limited, do not waste it living someone else's life. Do not be bound by any preachings, otherwise you will be shrouded in the shadows of others' thoughts. #Crypto Circle##Blockchain#

Every time there is a major election in the United States, especially with the emergence of Trump, it brings volatility to the cryptocurrency market. With Trump's influence in the political arena, market sentiment has also become more sensitive. According to analysis by The Giver, the current rise in Bitcoin is primarily driven by short-term speculators, whose funds are relatively unstable. Therefore, shortly after the election, there is a possibility of significant capital withdrawal from the market, leading to a correction in Bitcoin's price. At this time, savvy arbitrageurs can take advantage of the situation and profit from the short-term fluctuations in the market, using high-frequency trading or cross-platform arbitrage to achieve gains.

Trump's trading policies have undoubtedly had a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market. Not only does Trump have a high profile in the political arena, but his policies also bring great uncertainty to the future of cryptocurrencies. This uncertainty directly affects the price trends of altcoins. Many investors flock to tokens associated with Trump (such as TRUMP and MELANIA tokens), hoping to profit from the market turmoil by speculating on these altcoins.

However, it is worth noting that the performance of these cryptocurrencies is influenced not only by policy changes but also by overall market volatility. For example, under Trump's leadership, cryptocurrencies related to him may experience significant fluctuations, so investors need to closely monitor Bitcoin's price changes and remain alert to the trends of these altcoins.

At the weekly level, KDJ and MACD continue to fluctuate near the central axis, and BOLL is fluctuating upward as a whole. Bitcoin's technical trend this week is particularly aggressive, with strong northbound sentiment, and the current KDJ, MACD and BOLL are in resonance; the three-day MA moving averages of the main chart are also arranged upward at different amplitudes. According to the current weekly trend of Bitcoin, it is possible to touch the upper track of BOLL (that is, the 117,000-125,000 area) in the near future.


Bitcoin's daily line is still strong, so we will analyze the Ethereum market based on Bitcoin's momentum and suggest that everyone pay attention to when the strong pressure in the 3460-3550 area can be effectively broken. Only when Ethereum effectively breaks through the high point short-term strong pressure, the market will be able to usher in a large-scale volume rebound in the future (the second high point strong pressure reference is in the 3900-4170 area); on the contrary, if Ethereum in the short term still cannot get rid of the constraints of the 3460-3550 area, it also means that Ethereum is still restricted by the downward box, and the market may still face extreme market conditions of pressure and decline at any time.


Today, compared with the analysis in the early morning, Bitcoin actually resonated and continued to lead the northward movement during the day. Ethereum is actually inconsistent in terms of volatility ratio, so we must pay attention to whether the short-term pressure level of 3460-3550 can be effectively broken through when we do short-term trading of Ethereum. Then for the short-term market in the future, I still see a slight upward shock (there is a small gap in the 4-hour short-term, so it is estimated that the box shock repair will be the main focus during the evening, and the market may start again from 8 pm to 12 am. In short, short-term bargain hunting, pay attention to space management, and don't get too excited).

A Reuters survey shows that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% during the January 29 meeting and will cut rates again in March. Policymakers are digesting a series of new economic policies expected to be introduced in Washington. The survey also indicates that persistent inflationary pressures may only allow the Fed to cut rates once more. Concerns over Trump's promises, ranging from comprehensive tariffs, extending tax cuts, to deporting illegal immigrants, have led to a significant increase in U.S. Treasury yields before he took office. The already strong economic outlook and the Fed's future rate path will depend on the extent to which the new administration fulfills these promises. Of the 103 economists surveyed, all expect the FOMC to maintain the key rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the meeting on January 28-29, with nearly 60% expecting the Fed to cut rates in March. Among the 102 economists, 65 expect two or fewer rate cuts this year. The survey also shows that by the end of 2025, the federal funds rate will be between 3.75%-4.00%, significantly higher than the predicted 3.00%-3.25% a few months ago.

New coins are starting to be launched in clusters again, and most of the launches are AI artificial intelligence varieties, such as AIXBT and today's NC. However, AIXBT has already begun to harvest retail investors, and in fact, NC is also inevitably subject to retail investor harvesting in the secondary market.

Several altcoins are performing remarkably in the market, but investors need to remain vigilant:

First, DOGE and SUI are considered strong coins, as they have shown strong resilience or quick recovery ability even during market downturns. However, this performance may mislead investors into thinking these coins are risk-free. Relevant notices from the Chinese government clearly indicate that there are speculation risks in virtual currency trading, reminding investors to be cautious.

Secondly, AAVE and OM have also demonstrated impressive performance in the market, but their volatility is equally concerning. The cyclical nature of the altcoin market means these coins may achieve high returns in the short term, but they also face the risk of rapid corrections. Especially when the altcoin season index has not clearly issued a buy signal, investors need to be cautious.

Furthermore, although XRP and COW have shown smaller pullbacks, their high-risk nature cannot be overlooked. XRP has long been entangled with regulatory issues, while COW, as a relatively emerging project, relies more on the project's development and market speculation for its performance.

Finally, coins like PEPE and RAY have seen some gains recently, but their high volatility and the unpredictability of market sentiment mean the risks are equally significant. In particular, market analysts point out that the altcoin market may be approaching a momentum bottom, but this does not guarantee future increases; rather, it may signal the beginning of a correction period.

When facing these remarkably performing altcoins, investors must recognize that high returns come with high risks. Changes in market conditions, the stability of the projects themselves, and the dynamic adjustments of regulatory policies can all have a significant impact on the prices of these altcoins. Therefore, investors should remain rational, avoid blindly chasing highs, and conduct thorough risk assessments.

Five key points in the cryptocurrency circle:

1. Adjust your mentality: treat cryptocurrency trading as a game, profits and losses don’t matter, keep a relaxed mentality.

2. Use spare money to trade: The funds for cryptocurrency trading should not affect your life, so you can afford it and put it down.

3. Learn quickly: Master practical technical indicators and tactics as soon as possible, practice more, and summarize experience more.

4. Be cautious in the first battle: The first cryptocurrency trading should be carefully prepared, practice through the simulation system first, and then practice after accumulating experience.

5. Keep the principal: Use the money earned to trade cryptocurrencies, making the operation easier and more comfortable

Two points to note for short-term Bitcoin trends:

1. Be wary of rebounds after two consecutive days of significant declines;

The price has dropped over 10,000 points in two days, without any rebound adjustments during that period. Yesterday, it fell nearly 5,000 points again from above 97,000, hitting a low around 92,500; however, it has not yet broken that low today. After briefly dropping below 93,000 on the hourly chart, it rebounded, so we need to pay attention to the strength of the rebound this evening.

2. Testing resistance levels for rebound recovery, the short-term may trigger a second low break downwards.

Daily support is at 91,500, and there is still room for decline in the short term. Even if a rebound occurs, we cannot directly conclude a reversal in the short-term structure; we need to pay attention to two levels above, 96,000-97,000. 96,000 is the starting point for yesterday evening's decline, and this level can be used as a second bearish short-selling point.

Compared to the volume of short-term holders, the volume of long-term holders has slightly increased after a peak decline at the 100,000 level. This indicates that the tokens purchased by short-term holders 155 days ago have now transferred to the queue of long-term holders. In simpler terms, long-term holders (addresses) lost this identity during the process of selling Bitcoin at the peak. Meanwhile, those who bought in 155 days ago and have held are now becoming long-term players. This behavior of increasing supply among long-term holders generally occurs during a downtrend.

The more and faster the supply of long-term holders increases during a price decline, the closer the market is to a temporary bottom or the bottom position. However, at present, we have only just completed a round of decline and are in the process of recovering. It can be roughly inferred that if the price continues to drop, the supply of long-term holders will also continue to increase, unless it returns to the peak again.

With last night's rapid decline, the altcoin market has been completely reshuffled, with most altcoins breaking through the bottom range of the past six months. To be honest, this decline is simply outrageous; He Yang feels it's like throwing away a great opportunity!

This is due to yesterday's radical comments from Trump, as well as Musk's temporary lack of plans to support Dogecoin payments on X, which triggered this 'bloodbath' as early as the morning session!

1. Two important data points tonight:
The small non-farm payroll data released at 21:15 is expected to show 6,000 fewer jobs compared to the previous value, which is a small positive for interest rate cuts!
Additionally, the initial jobless claims at 21:30 are expected to show 7,000 more than the previous value; these two data points support each other and are both small positives!

2. The heavy data, of course, is the big non-farm payroll data coming Friday evening:
The unemployment rate for the big non-farm data is basically consistent, but the expected value for non-farm employment is 67,000 lower than the previous value, which is much worse than the small non-farm data. He Yang feels this is absolutely a positive level!

For both small and big non-farm payroll data, if the published value and the expected value do not differ much, it is undoubtedly positive. Thus, the probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of this month will greatly increase! Even if there is no rate cut this month, it will not be far from a rate cut! The medium to long-term interest rate cut cycle will not change! Thus, liquidity will be worry-free in the long run!

1. The Governor of the Czech National Bank considers including Bitcoin in future reserve strategies;
2. CFTC Chairman warns of 'blank' regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies and politics;
3. CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will resign on January 20;
4. Musk: The dollar price for purchasing cryptocurrencies will actually decrease after dollar inflation is resolved;
5. Backpack Exchange acquires FTX EU, Backpack EU will launch in the first quarter;
6. Bitwise Research Director: The number of Bitcoins held by enterprises has increased to 590,649, a year-on-year growth of 63%.

The essence of trading is a game against human nature

What you think trading is: staring at the chart, making trading decisions through various technical indicators and trading methods, competing with the market.

But the reality of trading: is doing something that is a continuous game against oneself. We need to overcome our own greed, overcome fear, overcome the urge to protect profits and cut losses, and overcome chasing highs and selling lows.

All of this is actually unrelated to the market, but rather related to ourselves. So rather than saying that trading is a competition in the market, it is more accurate to say that we are constantly in a game against our own human nature during the trading process. Trading goes against human nature. #CryptoCommunity ##Cryptocurrency#

Like athletes, a healthy body, stable emotions, a rock-solid mindset, and strict trading discipline are essential qualities of an excellent trader. Of course, the most important factors are still the era and industry dividends and luck.

A successful complete trading cycle consists of: 70% mindset + 20% luck + 10% trading skills. You need to use your 70% mindset to capture the tide of the cycle, and use 20% luck and 10% trading skills to expand profits within the captured cycle.

I will share the trading system later, what is the invincible market sense flow.

The way of investing, once you understand it, you should take off!

1. In the world of investing, fear and greed often lead people astray.
2. Success in investing is not about predicting the market, but about responding to it.
3. Investing must be rational! If you cannot understand it, then do not engage in it.
4. For professional investors, if you have confidence in yourself, I suggest high concentration. For other ordinary people, if you do not understand investing, I suggest high diversification.
5. Growth is certainly good, but we prefer good businesses.
6. Those who cannot withstand a 50% drop in stock prices should not be trading stocks.
7. The process of investing is a process of making a large number of decisions; it is impossible not to make mistakes.
8. For most investors, what is important is not what they know, but whether they truly understand what they do not know.
9. Do not use money that belongs to you and that you need to earn money that does not belong to you and that you do not need.
10. What we think about is not how to obtain extremely high returns, but always keeping in mind to never lose money.

From the current clearing chart situation, there has not yet been a backlog of orders, which indicates that during these two days of sideways movement, the market has not triggered a large-scale influx of participants.

Currently, the Americans are immersed in the New Year's holiday festivities, and market fluctuations are becoming more stable. Under these circumstances, short-term trading is more suitable, and holding positions to wait for a major trend is not encouraged.

Whether going long or short, the goal should be to profit in the short term and exit in a timely manner. Once the elite traders of Wall Street return to the market, it is expected that another wave of intense market turbulence will ensue.

It should be remembered that the calmer the market appears on the surface, the more turbulent undercurrents are often lurking behind it, just waiting to erupt!

In the period of market fluctuations, we should remain calm and avoid blind operations. The market fell in the afternoon, but did not break through, and then rebounded quickly, leaving almost no chance for short sellers in the whole process. In this case, we can only choose to take over at a high level. Such market conditions tell us that in future transactions, even short-term transactions, we need to be more cautious.

From the technical structure analysis, the price in the four-hour level line shows a volatile trend below the middle track, and the short and long volume appear alternately, causing the price to fluctuate within a certain range. This up and down pin-type market did not bring a substantial breakthrough. Although the long volume was arranged, it did not drive the price to achieve a strong breakthrough. This further confirmed the market's oscillating pattern. Therefore, in the evening trading, our thinking should keep the high-altitude strategy unchanged, continue to observe the dynamic changes of the market, and adjust the strategy according to the actual situation.

The most taboo in cryptocurrency investment is impatience. Only through fluctuations can a one-sided trend be brewed; only through pauses can we move forward better. Constantly running without stopping is unbearable for anyone!

The market is the same. After accumulating a large amount of following chips through fluctuations, it can then better drop or surge! Calmly waiting for the market to arrive.

The most taboo in cryptocurrency investment is impatience. Only through fluctuations can a one-sided trend be brewed; only through pauses can we move forward better. Constantly running without stopping is unbearable for anyone!

The market is the same. After accumulating a large amount of following chips through fluctuations, it can then better drop or surge! Calmly waiting for the market to arrive.

Keep calm and manage the ups and downs of the market

Is the core of trading probability?
Now the daily routine is: Get up at 6:30 and go for a run, rain or shine. In the morning, I generally review yesterday's trades along with updates from the evening news, combining my positions and specific circumstances to make short-term trades or small fund operations to enhance my market intuition. Then I conduct a 2-hour review and summary, which is the most important task in the morning, aimed at making a good profit in the evening! After that, I write an investment-related article and post it on Zhihu, which serves as a record of my cryptocurrency trading life, so that when I grow old, I have a place to reminisce. I also like to write about investment experiences and insights, helping both myself and others.
Trading cryptocurrencies is a form of practice; those who can endure loneliness will succeed.
After 10 years of trading, I have developed the "Five Investment Rules + Ten Trading Rules + Stable Investment Plan" using real money in the crypto space. Regardless of whether you are a novice or an experienced trader, once you deeply understand the essence of these rules, I believe they will be helpful in your future trading endeavors.
Five Investment Rules:
1. Consider and observe the project from multiple perspectives; do not follow the crowd blindly. There have been many scams in the crypto space, and once the founder runs away, it is impossible to hold them legally accountable.
2. Understand blockchain and related knowledge, and know the industry pain points that blockchain aims to solve before entering the crypto space.
3. For the project you want to invest in, make sure to have a comprehensive understanding, including whether the project truly uses blockchain technology, whether the founder has disclosed their identity and has a legitimate background, whether the business logic of the project is closely related to the tokens, whether there are similar projects in the same industry addressing the pain points, and if the project can generate profit in real life if successfully implemented.
4. If you cannot accurately assess the future prospects of a cryptocurrency, do not invest more than 20% of your assets in blockchain investments, and do not put all your eggs in one basket.
5. Quality projects will also experience ups and downs; maintain a calm mindset. For the investment projects you believe in, do not overly concern yourself with the price in the short term, but pay attention to whether the team's development progress aligns with the white paper. Additionally, only by holding for the long term can you ultimately achieve greater returns.

DOGE volatility is not too large, with significant resistance at the level of 0.351. Only by breaking through this resistance will there be a chance for a second surge. Upper resistance: 0.375, 0.396. Lower small-level pullback support: 0.328, 0.317, 0.3. If the four-hour closing line falls below 0.328, this rebound will end.