Many people feel that BTC has risen too quickly in recent days, soaring to 80,000, as many expected the 80,000 mark to take a couple of months, but it arrived in just a week.

In the first half of the year, I repeatedly emphasized the characteristics of this bull market: 1 is that it rises without looking back, focusing on being light and easy to pull, making you hesitant to get on board; 2 is that it moves sideways in a cruel manner, neither going up nor down, focusing on torment, making it difficult for you to go long or short.

Currently, from the perspective of the slope of the moving averages, it is indeed very high, and there is a demand for consolidation or pullback for repair. However, having demand does not mean that it must be met. Right now, the big pie has completed a bullish trend resonance from small levels to large levels, and to disrupt this resonance, it has to be destroyed step by step from small levels to large levels, and it is clear that the current bears do not possess such power.

Will the bull market in the cryptocurrency world come again in 2025?

$BTC keeps breaking new highs, and everyone is wondering if the bull market has already arrived? Let's take a look at the timing of previous bull markets:

On November 12, 2012, the halving occurred, taking 92 days to reach the market peak.

On July 9, 2016, the halving occurred, taking 180 days to reach the market peak.

On May 11, 2020, the halving occurred, taking 204 days to reach the market peak.

It can be seen that over time, the duration from halving to the market peak has been gradually increasing. The principle behind this trend is very simple: the market's demand for increased capital is growing exponentially.

First, when the bull market starts, Bitcoin takes off first, and mainstream coins that have dropped significantly double in value. Next, after Bitcoin performs for a while, Ethereum begins its meteoric rise. Then, Bitcoin moves sideways, and altcoins follow Ethereum in a frenzy. After that, lesser-known coins fly around, and the crypto market becomes weak. Subsequently, there is an NFT bull market and a Ponzi scheme in gaming. Finally, there is a crash, altcoins go to zero, and the bear market recycles.

Whether the bull market arrives late or early, it will come, so strategically positioning a potential meme coin is undoubtedly of utmost importance!

Can you turn ten thousand into one million in this bull market?

The answer is yes.

I will share a feasible plan. If you follow through, making one million is achievable.

1. Buy coins when Bitcoin is above the MA20 on the weekly chart, buy two to three, and they must be new coins, hot coins in a bear market, like APT before its rise. It emerged from the bear market; as long as Bitcoin rises a bit, it can take off, like OP. Just remember, it needs to be popular and have a story to tell.

2. If Bitcoin falls below MA20, cut losses. Continue to make money during the buying or waiting period, giving yourself two to three chances to fail. If you have twenty thousand in savings, invest ten thousand; you can afford to fail three times.

3. If you buy a coin like APT, aim for a 4-5x return. Keep executing the strategy; remember, you are working with small capital, and you must buy new coins. Don't buy ETH or BTC. Their price increases cannot support your dreams.

4. If you make three 5x returns from a bear market to a bull market, that's about 125 times. This period can take as short as a year or as long as three years.

You have three chances to fail. If you fail all three times, it indicates you lack the ability; stay away from this circle, avoid investing, and especially steer clear of contracts.

Invest your energy into work, cultivate your hobbies, and improve your skills. Earn a good living through work. When you are more mature and stable, around your 30s, if another bear market like 2022 occurs, invest another twenty thousand and try again with the above method. If you still don't succeed, then just work steadily and stay away from the crypto space.

The most important thing about the above methods is to have patience. If you lack patience and get flustered, exit quickly.

In short, remember to enter when it's time to enter, and to cut losses when it's time to cut losses; be patient!

What should novice retail investors do in the face of the collapse of the copycat market caused by the BTC and ETH wash?

1. If the whole position is trapped, you can just lie flat. Don't think about adding leverage to get it back. If you add leverage, what may be waiting for you is a pin, a liquidation, and a return to zero.

2. If you are short, you can now choose your favorite coin to buy the bottom, DOGE SOL ETH BTC XRP, etc. You can enter in layers. Don't go all in, and don't think about buying the bottom at the lowest position. This is too difficult!

3. If your money is useful and you are very nervous, because the recent market has fallen at night, then you can do intraday orders, don't stay overnight, and keep U when you stay overnight. This way there will be no excessive pressure!

4. If you like to play contracts, I suggest doing ultra-short-term, not long-term, it is easy to be buried. Go long or short, remember to bring stop loss and stop profit. Be careful of pin-spike contracts! !

This round of bull market is different from the previous rounds. In the previous rounds of bull market, any coin could rise to the sky. In this round of bull market, only Bitcoin is YYDS, and there are many copycats. The bull market is already halfway through, and it is estimated that many people have not yet recovered their investment. However, no matter which round of bull market, long-term holding of Bitcoin can outperform more than 95% of copycats.

The current market rhythm is obvious:
• The big cake rises, sucking blood from the altcoins;
• The big cake falls, bringing down the altcoins;
• The big cake is sideways, and the altcoins fluctuate without volume.

The big cake has lost its direction in the short term, and now we can only look at the second cake.

Suggestions:
Friends who have a lot of altcoins in their hands should not rush to sell their meat, most of the altcoins are near the historical bottom:
• The big room for decline is only 35% more than the historical low;
• The small room for decline is only about 20%.

If you can't bear to change your position, you have to consider whether to run after a short-term rebound of 20%. Such repeated operations are not meaningful. At present, most currencies have fallen by 50% in this round. Only by holding a currency can you retain confidence and avoid continuous losses.

Strategy:
Spot wait, retreat to advance.

Today's fan Q&A:
How is wld?
AI series is a good coin. Now no one can afford it. Just wait for the next wave of market to start and continue to buy. It's not a big problem.
How to see usual
RWA plus DEFI sector, the strong will always be strong, see if RWA can be brought up
How much will btc pull back
It's okay if it doesn't break 95000
How much will doge see
After breaking 0.34 in the short term, 0.26 below is the big support. It is currently in adjustment and temporarily unavailable
How to see pepe
14-15 is the daily rising trend support point. The probability of stabilization at this position in the later period is relatively high
How to see vana
See if there is a bottom here. Now the market sentiment and the market are not very good. We can only wait for a certain opportunity to enter.
Can the return to 2.5?
Wait until it stabilizes and consolidates at the bottom. It is still bottoming out. Pay attention to the strong support near 1.05 below.
When will the copycat start to rise?
Wait for a wave of big cake market share to go down. Recently, the big cake market share is rebounding and the copycat is very miserable. Another indicator is getting stronger.

Next, the money-making opportunities fed into your mouth

I think a few simple words are better than lengthy discussions

1) The 100,000 mark for Bitcoin will definitely adjust, starting in a few months
2) Bitcoin's final target next year is 180,000 USD
3) Altcoin has a phase of market fluctuations, dropping and rising
3) When selecting coins, only choose these four tracks: RWA, L1, AI, MEME; never touch the others

4) Among these tracks, the ones with horizontal weekly charts are a no-brainer for all-in bets

In the next brief statement, I will explain why the slowdown in interest rate cuts will not affect BTC reaching 180,000 USD

December 20 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis: BTC, ETH Today's Highlights
Market Review
Yesterday, BTC continued to pull back, and this morning it fell again with increased volume, briefly dropping to around 95,500, with a decline greater than expected. Currently, the 4-hour downward momentum is still maintained, slight follow-up could be considered, waiting for a rebound. Conservative operation suggests observing for 1-2 days, waiting for stabilization before conducting right-side trading. The target expectation for this week in the 110,000-115,000 range has been canceled. The altcoin followed BTC's simultaneous pullback, briefly dropping to 3,350, with a decline also exceeding expectations. The 4-hour downward momentum has not weakened, but it has entered the oversold range. It is advisable to follow up appropriately today, waiting for a rebound. Altcoins are following the mainstream downward trend, with most coins experiencing significant pullbacks. It’s advisable to follow up today, waiting for a rebound. Today, consider following up on PENDLE, which has dropped significantly; altcoins tend to rebound quickly, so consider buying the dip for short-term trades. For already held altcoins, SATS should be patiently held, with the possibility of liquidating around 50. FTM can be liquidated and reconsidered later. POLYX can continue to be held, and ACT should be maintained.
Today's Highlights:
BTC: The 1-hour and 4-hour levels are below healthy levels, while the daily level has returned to healthy levels. Expecting a rebound after consolidation today; slight follow-up could be considered. The long-term expectation has not weakened. Support below today is 95,500-96,500, and resistance above is 98,500-99,500.
ETH: The 1-hour and 4-hour levels have entered the oversold range, while the daily level is below healthy levels. Expecting a rebound after consolidation today; appropriate follow-up could be considered. Support below today is 3,350-3,400, and resistance above is 3,500-3,600.

Many opinions are based on the foundation of 'this time is different'.

For example, 'there will never be another altcoin season', 'only memes will rise', 'this time some altcoins won't pump', and so on.

At least so far, what I've seen is that every time is the same:
Altcoin season will come when it should;
Every coin that should pump will pump;

This bull market can actually be seen as a microcosm of the entire history of cryptocurrency.

Newcomers who just entered the space in the past two years may find it hard to understand:

Why haven't the 'old investors' who entered the market as early as 2017 achieved financial freedom?

Why haven't those who bought BTC back in 2014 or 2015 gained true freedom?

The answer is: everything you have experienced over the years, especially what you have gone through recently, is actually what the old investors have gone through as well.

From the results, buying BTC for a few thousand dollars casually, buying BNB in 2017 casually, and buying this or that casually should have led to financial freedom by now. However, the problem is that many people are always unable to hold on steadfastly. Don’t say that the old investors couldn’t hold on for years, can you truly hold onto recent ETH? This is actually the same mindset, the same experience.

Listing on Binance is indeed the peak of short-term liquidity, but it will go through a process of distribution or accumulation.

Of course, there will also be some subtle changes:

1. The altcoin season has arrived, but the order may not be fixed.

Which sector rises first and which rises later may vary.

2. Listing on Binance is the peak of liquidity, but it also needs to consider market capitalization and market absorption capacity.

In specific situations, some coins may rise after listing before distributing/accumulating, such as $SATS and $NEIRO.

Overall, the market's “routines” don’t change much, but each “pitfall” is different. The longer you play, the more you can gradually understand these details.

"Retail investors" mistakenly believe that trading is a "zero-sum game"
They believe that the money they make is the money others lose; and the money they lose must be the same amount that others have earned. When they lose money, they are filled with resentment towards those who make money — which is actually resentment they have brought upon themselves...

They completely overlook the greatest force in the trading market: economic cycles, also known as bull and bear markets. In a bull market, the vast majority of people make money, while the losses of a few cannot compare to the gains of so many; in a bear market, the vast majority of people lose money, and the losses of many are many times the gains of a few.

So, this is not a "zero-sum game" at all. If you lose money, the correct explanation is: the timing of your purchase was wrong.

Current Market Summary

1. Clear Cycle: The market generally follows a four-year cycle, such as 16-17, 20-21, and 24-25.

2. Long-term Holding: In the early stages of a bull market, it is most suitable to hold when the four-year cycle just begins.

3. Major Bull Coins Surge: Undervalued major bull coins, as long as you dare to hold them, will eventually explode.

4. Don't Compare with Mainstream Coins: Small coins can't outperform mainstream coins, and unnecessary fluctuations may lead to losses against the big players.

5. Regrets in the Bull Market: Most people regret not holding on, rather than not buying in.

6. Bull Market Impending: When everyone doubts the bull market, it is actually already here.

Conclusion: Long-term players ultimately win; don't be scared away by volatility, holding onto your assets is key.

Don't compare the bull markets of 2017 and 2021 to now.

Although I mentioned the starting point for altcoin trends at the beginning of August, many altcoins are actually just a Tyndall effect (i.e., a fleeting moment).

There hasn't been a lot of large capital entering the market, retail participation is low, the consolidation period is long, and these old coins have a particularly strong narrative, basically still featuring familiar faces.

The key point now is that the bull market cycle is still continuing; consolidation is actually an opportunity, but how long this round of consolidation will last is uncertain.

In the future, if you see altcoins that have already risen significantly, don't chase them; if you miss out, you miss out.

The real opportunities lie in the new coins that are facing widespread FUD. As long as this wave can thoroughly consolidate, form a daily bottom, and trade sideways for a while, you can participate. There is at least a chance for a double.

The core focus remains on L1, RWA, and AI in these directions.

In fact, the surge in 2021 was not that significant; the several-fold or even dozens of times increase was only concentrated in a few specific sectors, mainly new public chains, games, the metaverse, and MEME. DEFI also just had a brief frenzy before it ended. In the second half of the year, DEFI played dead. This is not to say that there were no profit opportunities in DEFI, but the major profit opportunities were in public chains, games, the metaverse, and MEME.

At the beginning of 2023, the major profit opportunities were in public chains, AI, and MEME; PEPE was born around that time. Meanwhile, the metaverse and games slowly cooled down in terms of hype. Of course, there are still profitable segment opportunities.

From the end of 2023 to the beginning of this year, the major profit opportunities were in AI, public chains, and MEME. Remember Wif and Bonk? They were born around that time. DEFI also saw Pendle surge significantly, while others performed mediocrely. At this point, the metaverse is already a thing of the past, and games only had a slight increase.

Currently, we are experiencing this wave. I don't need to say much about it. So, if a major market trend is expected in Q1 next year, the significant increases, without liquidity being injected, will still be in the new and old public chains, AI, and MEME.

Of course, there are also new concept sectors, such as RWA and Depin, AI + MEME, AI + Depin, etc. As for others, there are still segment opportunities. That's about it.

We need to understand two things at the core.
First: The United States is still in a cycle of interest rate cuts, but the magnitude and frequency of interest rate cuts have decreased, but what remains unchanged is that it is still in a cycle of interest rate cuts.
Second: This is more important. The US economy is still very strong. As long as the economy remains strong and companies maintain a good revenue margin, the market will rise. After all, the economy is good, companies are making money, and liquidity is sufficient.
So in summary, there is no need to worry. After all, the Federal Reserve has only reduced the number of interest rate cuts. However, the liquidity itself has not been withdrawn. On the contrary, due to the strong economy, liquidity may be more sufficient.

Why do you know Bitcoin will rise, yet you still buy altcoins
Why do you know the primary market is bloody, yet you still play in the primary

Why do you know that VC tokens on major exchanges are inherently self-serving, yet you still criticize
Because altcoins give retail investors the dream of making multiples, because the primary market gives retail investors the dream of getting rich
Because you still have hope in Binance, that's why you criticize
Why do ordinary retail investors come to the crypto space? Isn't it just to turn things around and get rich?
If everyone just wanted stability, they would have invested in A-shares for stability
Why do you compare your investments to the Three Star Gods? Do you have infinite bullets?