环球投资小顽童

This round of market activity is quite strange. I insist on continuing to hold long positions. Everyone take a look at the daily candlestick chart; such a rapid rise surprisingly has no volume. These past few days have been very odd, with no major news and no volume to support it. Why has there been such a continuous rise? There hasn't been any news about large purchases by MSTR either. Who is buying? Will there be any explosive positive news coming out later?

This market surge is happening very quickly, and the strangest thing is that major financial institutions on Wall Street, especially BlackRock, have not yet made a statement, which means they have not yet figured out Wall Street's true attitude. We will only know it's time to sell or short when Wall Street starts to promote the market extensively. It seems a bit early now, and it's not ruled out that there is a high probability it will break through the previous historical highs. Be cautious when shorting.

It's hard to say that this round of market has peaked. Don't short too early.

This is the first time I've seen a funding fee of once an hour, reaching as high as 2% at a time. That means over 24 hours, the shorts have to pay the longs a funding fee of 48%. It’s truly a typical short-seller massacre, but retail investors chasing longs are like playing with fire, as a waterfall can come at any moment. I don't understand why the platform doesn't regulate this kind of harvesting behavior?

It is obvious that Powell's icon is determined to undermine Trump. Such a blatant hint suggests that even if the market falls, the Federal Reserve will not intervene to support it. Powell's prioritization of personal grudges, interests, and partisan disputes over the independence of the Federal Reserve is indeed something that many professionals find disgraceful. It is estimated that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance for the remainder of this year. However, for us, this is indeed a tremendous boost; without the Federal Reserve's financial support, it would be almost impossible for Trump to defeat China, and he might struggle to maintain his own position. However, as time goes on, Powell's influence will wane; everyone knows he will definitely step down soon, and the market is now paying more attention to the statements of his successor, Waller.

Boldly shorted om at position 7.0, finally closed at 0.63, making around 2000u profit. This type of short-term surging coin, which can't even get on Coinbase, fundamentally cannot become an ETF, so the shorting success rate is quite high. However, risk control is also necessary to prevent liquidation, so leverage should be kept as low as possible.

It is recommended that Binance take the lead in launching various cryptocurrencies linked to mainstream assets, such as those linked to U.S. stocks, gold, silver, commodities, etc., even linked to specific stocks like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, S&P, Nasdaq, etc. This will definitely attract many people to invest in cryptocurrencies; otherwise, if U.S. stocks drop significantly, everyone will sell their cryptocurrencies to buy the dip in the stock market.

In fact, there is a trick to choosing altcoins on Binance, which is very simple: any altcoin with a USDC contract can be bought on dips, the more it falls, the more you buy. When the bull market comes, it will definitely rise several times. However, altcoins that only have USDT contracts can only be shorted on highs; the probability of these altcoins eventually going to zero is very high. Can everyone understand the underlying logical relationship?

It would be a foolish action for MSTR to continue issuing preferred shares at an 8% interest rate, as that would tighten cash flow even more. It would be better to issue common stock since common stock does not incur interest and does not consume the company's cash flow. It seems that MSTR is indeed digging its own grave; once MSTR's cash flow chain breaks and leads to bankruptcy, the market could suddenly flood with over 500,000 BTC sell orders, which could drive the BTC price down to $30,000.

Don't expect Trump to release more favorable news for Bitcoin. Ultimately, Trump is only looking out for his personal interests. Ever since he issued Trump Coin to cash out, and supported XRP and other altcoins, his stance on cryptocurrency has become increasingly awkward. Continuing to release favorable news for Bitcoin doesn't offer him much personal benefit; instead, it provides ammunition for attacks against him. Therefore, there won't be much positive news for Bitcoin.

The US economy faces a recession outlook, Bitcoin plummets by 30%, and US stocks also enter a downward trend. According to the latest GDP data released by the US, the full-year economic growth rate for 2024 is 2.8%, but the growth rate in the fourth quarter has fallen to 2.3%, mainly due to a decline in corporate investment and a drag from private inventories. Non-residential fixed asset investment has even experienced its first decline since 2021. Although Federal Reserve officials expect GDP growth to remain robust in the first quarter of 2025, S&P Global predicts that the US economic growth rate will further slow to 2.3% in 2025, below the 2024 level. Furthermore, the consumer confidence index dropped significantly to 98.3 in February, reflecting heightened public concerns over inflation and tariff policies. From this data, while the US economy has not fallen into recession, its growth momentum has weakened, especially in the manufacturing, technology, and consumer sectors, which may be under pressure due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. For instance, half of the companies in the S&P 500 have factories located overseas, and the implementation of tariff policies will directly impact these companies' profit margins. Meanwhile, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline in February 2025, with prices dropping from above $90,000 to below $80,000, hitting a new low for the year. The main reasons include multiple negative factors: first, the Trump tariff policy triggered a risk asset withdrawal of global capital, leading to a sharp drop in US Treasury yields and increased market risk aversion; second, the cryptocurrency exchange Bybit suffered a hacker attack resulting in a loss of $1.5 billion in Ethereum, severely damaging investor trust in centralized platforms; third, Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of funds for six consecutive days, with a single-day outflow exceeding $500 million, indicating a clear trend of institutional capital withdrawal; fourth, the South Dakota legislative body rejected a Bitcoin investment bill, undermining short-term market confidence in policy support; fifth, frequent scandals in the Meme coin market (such as the collapse of Solana) have further dragged down the trust in the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem. Additionally, technical analysis shows that Bitcoin has fallen below key support levels (such as the annual average price), with over 2.6 million Bitcoins in a loss state, further exacerbating selling pressure concerns. Overall, there is a link between the slowdown of the US economy and the plunge in Bitcoin: economic uncertainty prompts investors to avoid risks, while the security vulnerabilities, regulatory fluctuations, and capital outflows in the cryptocurrency market further amplify price volatility. Despite this, in the long run, some institutions remain optimistic about Bitcoin's upward potential due to factors such as the halving cycle and ETF prospects.

I remember that when Bitcoin was at 108,000, I advised everyone not to chase high prices. Bitcoin would definitely fall back to 88,000. At that time, many people laughed at me and said that if it really reached 88,000, they would sell their house and borrow money to buy at the bottom. As a result, when Bitcoin really fell to 88,000, or even to 82,000, are there really many people buying at the bottom? Now the market believes that it will fall to 72,000, and there are very few people who dare to buy at the bottom. Lao Naughty Boy is one of them who dares to buy at the bottom. In fact, MSTR has stopped falling now, which is indeed a good signal for buying at the bottom. There will be a rebound.

Strongly protest Binance's manipulation of contract leverage ratios in collaboration with altcoin operators to harvest retail investors. Recently, several altcoins have been frequently found to have their contract leverage ratios adjusted by Binance, for example, from ten times to six times, which forces the liquidation of retail investors' contracts. This typical behavior of colluding with operators to harvest retail investors is excessive. Officially, it is claimed to be for controlling platform risk, but every contract is a formal agreement from the moment it is established, and the leverage ratio is also mutually agreed upon. Binance's unilateral adjustment of the ratio is a disregard for the agreed terms of both parties, and it is certainly an illegal unfair clause. Unfortunately, there is no way to regulate this; it can only be left to its own devices.

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The old trickster tells you why you must go to Hong Kong to open an account for handling virtual currency deposits and withdrawals. Just look at the picture below, and it will be clear. In fact, the entire chain of scam funding and money laundering is very long. Why is the money frozen in your account only after it arrives? The truth is that from the moment you first withdraw funds, your account is being monitored. Initially, it simply reminds you not to make the same mistake again. So whether you use WeChat, Alipay, or a bank account, there will be kind reminders not to deposit or withdraw again. If you still don’t listen and continue to make mistakes with a mentality of taking chances, getting you arrested and freezing your account can happen in an instant, especially if the frequency is high enough or the amount is large. They will definitely freeze and arrest you, and even if they don’t act immediately, they can settle accounts later. Therefore, the old trickster suggests that you go to Hong Kong to open an account for deposits and withdrawals. The government is currently lenient towards Hong Kong, focusing on developing virtual cryptocurrencies there. Today, the old trickster has gone to Hong Kong again. If you need help, feel free to message me.

*《The Year of the Yin Earth Snake Welcomes the God of Wealth》**

The green dragon spreads its wings to break the cold clouds,
Four horses adorned with gold descend upon the nine palaces.
Jade cups pour stars to add fortune and wealth,
Red talismans guide cranes to deliver riches at the door.

Firecrackers in a thousand streets urge the New Year,
Ten thousand trees of coral transform into red silver.
Look, the Heavenly Official holds the ledger and smiles,
In the human world, there are countless golden touchers.

When the funding rate of Bitcoin contracts turns negative, the bottom of Bitcoin has arrived!
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**Historical Review of Negative Funding Rates in Bitcoin Perpetual Contracts and Market Insights**

**1. Formation Mechanism of Negative Funding Rates**
In the perpetual contract market, the funding rate is settled every 8 hours. When the market experiences **extreme bearish sentiment**, contract prices are significantly lower than the spot index (Funding Rate = (Contract Price - Spot Price) / Spot Price). At this time, shorts must pay fees to longs, resulting in a negative funding rate. Its essence is that exchanges guide the rebalance of long and short forces through economic incentives.

**2. Major Historical Negative Value Events**
- **March 12, 2020, "Black Thursday"**
The funding rate for BitMEX's XBTUSD perpetual contract plummeted to **-0.35%** (8-hour rate), creating a historical extreme. On that day, Bitcoin flash-crashed from $7,900 to $3,800, liquidating over $1 billion in long positions, and panic selling led to a significant discount in contract premiums.

- **May 19, 2021, China's Mining Ban Impact**
The funding rates of the three major exchanges turned negative simultaneously, with Binance's BTCUSDT contract reaching **-0.21%**. Policy panic triggered $5 billion in long liquidations, and the open interest in contracts dropped sharply by 35% in one day, causing a "long squeeze" in the market.

- **November 2022, FTX Collapse Incident**
Deribit's perpetual contract funding rate remained at **-0.15% to -0.18%** for three consecutive days, reflecting institutional investors hedging their spot exposure through contracts. During this period, Bitcoin fell from $20,000 to $15,500, and the derivatives market saw an unusual structure of "spot leading the decline, contracts following the decline" for the first time.

**3. Market Signal Value of Negative Rates**
- **Extreme Sentiment Indicator**: When the 8-hour funding rate ≤ -0.1% and lasts for more than 2 periods, it often corresponds to a short-term oversold condition. After Binance experienced a **-0.12%** negative rate in January 2023, Bitcoin rebounded 23% in the following 7 days.
- **Arbitrage Opportunity Window**: Holding spot while going long on contracts during negative rate periods can yield an annualized rate of approximately **45%** (calculated based on June 2022 data).
- **On-chain Data Validation**: Glassnode data shows that when negative rates coincide with **aSOPR < 1** (all holders are at a loss), the probability of a mid-term rebound reaches 78%.

Digital Dollar: Could it force China to abandon foreign exchange controls, and what huge changes could it bring? The Federal Reserve's upcoming digital dollar plan not only signifies a digital leap for the dollar system but may also become a key pivot in reshaping the international monetary order. In this wave of transformation, China's foreign exchange control system is facing its most severe challenge since joining the WTO in 2001.
The distributed ledger technology of the digital dollar enables cross-border payments to be settled in seconds, compared to the traditional SWIFT system's 3-5 day settlement period, resulting in over a 1000-fold increase in transaction efficiency. The Cedar project, a collaboration between the New York Federal Reserve and Singapore's Monetary Authority, shows that blockchain-based wholesale digital currencies can reduce cross-border transaction costs to one-sixth of their original amount. This revolutionary change is dismantling the traditional international trade settlement system dominated by correspondent banking.
The digital upgrade of dollar hegemony brings more covert financial control. The traceability of the digital dollar allows the U.S. Treasury to monitor global funds in real time. Simulation by the International Monetary Fund shows that the digital dollar could increase the speed of cross-border capital flows by four times and expand volatility by 60%. The technical defenses of China's current foreign exchange controls are at risk of failing. The anonymity and distributed nature of digital wallets render traditional bank account-based regulatory measures ineffective. Research from Cambridge University indicates that privacy-preserving coin mixing solutions could increase the probability of avoiding regulation for cross-border transfers of $100,000 to 78%.
The competition in digital currencies is essentially a contest of institutional innovation capability. As the digital dollar returns with technological advantages, China's traditional foreign exchange controls face enormous challenges.

MSTR is one step closer to bankruptcy and death. Now MSTR has also started to play with contracts. As we all know, contracts have always been the focus of investors' liquidation due to high leverage and high funding rates. Many investors have gone bankrupt and died because of playing with contracts. Now MSTR has also started to play with contracts. Since its financing ability has reached its limit, but it cannot stop the madness of continuing to buy Bitcoin, just like drug addiction, it has even launched preferred stocks with an annual interest rate of 10%. This preferred stock is like a blood-sucking worm or a drug addict's drug addiction. It will always be attached to MSTR and continue to suck MSTR's cash flow and profits. It seems that MSTR is one step closer to bankruptcy and death!

Through studying Deepseek's Bitcoin price prediction for this year, I somewhat understand why many famous investment institutions provide some particularly outrageous prediction models. For example, predicting Bitcoin's peak position in 2025, some institutions give $750,000, some give $500,000, and many give $250,000. This seems completely unreasonable to us now, and we don't understand the reasons these well-known institutions make such absurd price predictions.
In fact, their outrageous predictions are meant to influence the data analysis of mainstream AI today, as the vast majority of AI data learning comes from the predictions of these well-known institutions on the internet. Each prediction carries a certain weight, and by influencing AI, they can impact the quantitative trading programs behind AI, thereby guiding the market in a certain direction.
Currently, Deepseek is clearly under this influence, so its prediction for Bitcoin this year is also highly likely in the $200,000 to $250,000 range.
Many brokerage firms' quantitative programs are precisely built on the analysis of these AI programs, so the outrageous predictions from these renowned institutions are not aimed at influencing retail investors, but rather at affecting AI weight, ultimately directing the market to develop in the direction these mainstream institutions desire. It doesn't necessarily have to reach the so-called heights they predict, and it may even be to cash out the chips they hold.
So, everyone should not be too superstitious about the predictions of famous institutions, nor should they be too superstitious about AI predictions. Behind it all could just be a trap, a pit, but this pit is for AI.