Today is the last day of the first half of 2024. After the surge in the past six months, the crypto market has been sideways for three months. The mainstream currency has pulled back by about 30%, and most of the cottages have pulled back by more than 50%. Is there any chance in the second half of 2024?

From the fundamentals, we focus on two aspects:

1: The Fed cuts interest rates, which is certain, whether it is this year or next year.

2: The approval of spot ETFs. The crypto market has been around for ten years. From the chaos in the early stage to the gradual standardization now, institutions have become the main participants in the market, which will make the bull market in the market longer.

The bull market is certainly not over. The longer it goes horizontally, the higher it will go vertically.

The total market value of gold is 12 trillion US dollars. If Bitcoin can successfully reach 20% of the market value of gold, it will be 2.4 trillion. Compared with the current price, the optimistic estimate is that it can double 1BTC = 122,000 US dollars. This is also the upper limit of the Bitcoin price that I can imagine in this round of bull market.

It is impossible for it to fluctuate above 56,500 in the next few months, and it will still break. There are only two situations, and the risks brought by each situation are different.

The low point of BTC is the low point of the altcoin, so everyone knows how to operate the coins they hold now, and how to maximize their interests in the face of possible situations.

Some friends will definitely ask how to choose altcoins. I have talked about it many times before, paying attention to the popular tracks of big exchanges, such as meme, gamefi, L1, ai, etc., and of course there are new narratives and new tracks that will bring incremental funds.

Bollinger tactics practical tips [The market is not good! Learn more about technology! ]💹💹💹

1. Three lines are upward, buy at the middle track of the currency price.

2. Three lines are downward, sell at the middle track of the currency price.

3. Three lines are flat, buy at the lower track and sell at the upper track.

4. Three lines are upward, the currency price is bullish and expects a breakthrough.

5. Three lines are downward, the currency price is bearish and leave quickly.

6. Three lines are narrowing, which means shock, wait and see.

Trading strategies only need to be learned

1. Look at the trend direction

2. Find entry points and selling points

The interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion, and the short-term market will not affect the trend!

The weekly line is about to close, and Ethereum seems to be falling, but in fact, from the trend, the strength of the shorts is still very weak. A positive line with a large volume has not fallen for five consecutive weeks, and the volume has shrunk and it has been supported near the second long-term rising trend line, which shows that the bulls are very strong.

The quarterly delivery market has also ended, and Ethereum's ETF is about to be launched. From the market, the trend is also very strong. I personally think that the next period of time will be the stage for Ethereum to perform!

Why is it getting harder and harder to make money in the cryptocurrency world?

1. ETFs are approved, Wall Street enters the market, the means are more professional, and the harvest is more fierce. For retail investors, the A-share market is not good, and the probability of being harvested is very high. Your opponent is Wall Street, which harvests the world.

2. The halving of bull and bear is no longer practical. The big pie is not dug out, and the impact on the market is not great. ETFs are just tools, not beliefs. The bull and bear cycle of the cryptocurrency world is about to change.

3. There are many projects, and you have to choose the best. There are too many projects that look bright on the surface but are actually rubbish. You must have sufficient investment research capabilities.

4. The more well-known the industry is, the smaller the profit margin is, and the higher the technical requirements are.

How to deal with it?

1. Learn more about Wall Street's harvesting methods, learn more, analyze more, and improve your judgment.

2. Give up the idea of ​​four years of bull and bear, and analyze and judge from the perspective of the international financial world pattern.

3. Work hard to improve investment research and trading capabilities, and increase the ability to make continuous and stable profits.

The difference between isolated and full positions in contracts [Details! Pay attention! ]💹💹💹

1. Isolated positions: independent margin mode
Isolated positions mean that each transaction has its margin calculated independently. Simply put, when you open an isolated position, only the margin occupied by the transaction is at risk. Even if market fluctuations cause the transaction to blow up, it will only affect the margin of this transaction, and will not affect other funds in your account.
For example, if you have 10000u in your account and use 2000u to open an isolated position contract, when market changes cause the contract to blow up, you will only lose the 2000u, and the remaining 8000u in the account will be safe.

2. Full position contract: shared margin mode
In contrast, full position contracts use a different margin mechanism. In full position mode, your entire account balance is considered as margin. This means that if you open multiple full position contracts at the same time, they will share the same margin pool.
The advantage of this model is that you can get higher returns when the market fluctuates in your favor. However, the risk also increases. If the market moves against your trade, it may cause the margin of the entire account to be consumed quickly, and may even trigger the liquidation of the entire account.
For example, if you open three full-position contracts in a 10000u account at the same time, each contract occupies a part of the margin. When market changes cause any contract to approach liquidation, it will affect the margin level of the entire account. If the margin is not enough to support all contracts, it may lead to the liquidation of the entire account.

3. Risk control: operate cautiously and allocate funds reasonably
After understanding the difference between position-by-position and full-position contracts, novice investors should pay more attention to risk control. First of all, it is not recommended for novices to try contract trading easily unless you already have a deep understanding of the spot market. Secondly, if you decide to try contract trading, be sure to operate cautiously, allocate funds reasonably, and avoid excessive leverage and over-trading.

Bitcoin plummeted, RATS hit a new high, how will it trend in the future?

For altcoins:
RATS performed quite strongly, even if Bitcoin plummeted, it still hit a new high. This reflects a phenomenon: as long as there are big players involved, the price will eventually rise.

For example, the situation of DWF is almost an open secret, and there are some unknown situations. In fact, when participating in the early days of Dogecoin, the feeling is most obvious.

Dogecoin without market making usually experiences a wave of trend; those with a little market making by the project party may rise several times; those that rise hundreds of times must have a strong main force behind them.

As long as it is a currency with outstanding performance, there must be strong dealers involved. Retail investors' buying cannot drive prices to continue to rise, and even if there is an increase, it will fall back because retail investors cannot form a joint force. Therefore, the decline is because the main force distributes chips, and the rise is because the main force pulls the plate.

How to Identify False Breakouts in Trading

Trading is a challenging and psychological activity. It is crucial to identify and avoid false breakouts, as they can lead to huge losses. However, savvy traders can learn how to identify these situations.

Identifying False Breakouts
1. Quick Reversal: If the price reverses immediately after breaking through a key level, this is likely a sign of a false breakout.

2. Low Volume: True breakouts are often accompanied by high volume. Low volume during the breakout period can mean that a false breakout has occurred, and a breakout without volume is just a hooligan

3. Key Levels: False breakouts often occur near major support or resistance levels. If the price breaks through these levels but fails to hold, be vigilant.

The rising channel of the market has not yet opened, but rats have already shown their strength. It is hard to imagine where the rats will fly to if the channel opens! Let's wait and see!
In addition, meme coins are more fun when they are interesting. Let's all create around the theme of rats, whether it is pictures, music, or anything else, maybe it will become popular inadvertently.

Ethereum ETF postponed!

According to the latest document disclosure, the SEC returned the ETF's S1 form and requested additional changes to some terms. Therefore, the ETF issuance originally scheduled for next week has been postponed, and it is expected to be launched on Nasdaq as early as the next week!

But don't panic, the postponement is not a rejection, and it will not affect its final launch in July.

On the market, it feels like another big drop is brewing. Another drop will make the bulls give up their illusions and then another big rise. Ethereum’s gas hit a new low. The positive news for ETFs is also negative news. Mentougou and other BTC are still releasing these negative news. The only thing is that the storm will come more violently…

We can no longer treat the future market with the thinking of the previous bull market. When the regular army did not enter the market, our industry was still in the wild era, and the leeks were also very simple, and there were endless hundred-fold and thousand-fold coins.

With the entry of the regular army, the maturity of the leeks, the increasing number of currencies and the expansion of the market size, it may be difficult to see the grand occasion of the previous bull market in the future.

Reduce your own desires, and it is actually enough to get three or five times in a bull market.

Analysis of BTC and ETH market on June 29:
Today’s highlights
BTC: 1-hour and 4-hour levels are below healthy levels, and the daily level is below healthy levels. The impact of the macro environment is still there, the market is sluggish, and the fundamentals are still bearish. It is mainly wait-and-see. The upper resistance of the day is 61200-61700, and the lower support is 59000-69500. After today’s slight rebound, the probability of continuing to fall is higher. It is mainly wait-and-see, watch more and do less
ETH: 1-hour and 4-hour average levels are below healthy levels, and the daily level is below healthy levels. The market is still not optimistic, and the chain is also sluggish. The upper resistance of the day is 3400-3430, and the lower support of the day is 3250-3300. After today’s slight rebound, the probability of continuing to fall is higher, so it is mainly wait-and-see.

RATS surged to become the new leader of the BRC20 sector? ORDI has been abandoned?

Wasn't the data last night pretty good? I don't know why the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market turned from rising to falling. The recent pressure is around 63,500-64,000. Only by breaking through this range can it rebound higher or reverse; the horizontal adjustment time has been very long. I personally think there will not be a deep adjustment, but in trading, you must leave yourself a margin to ensure that it falls to an unexpected price, and keep some bullets in your hand. This part of the bullet can also chase high after confirming that the market has reversed; it is expected that there will be a market in July. It depends on whether the Ethereum ETF can be launched in early July. If it is launched, it may bring a good market. If it is not launched, the market lacks positive driving and is likely to continue to adjust weakly.
Bitcoin plummeted, rats hit a new high, what will happen next?
For the cottage: rats are really awesome. Bitcoin plummeted and it hit a new high. Rats reflects a phenomenon that only dog ​​dealers intervene, and they will eventually pull the market. For example, dwf, this is basically equal to a clear card, and there are some unknowns. In fact, playing with local dogs in the early years was the most exciting. Local dogs without market making basically flowed in one wave. Project parties that make a little market may rise several times. Those that rise hundreds of times are strong dealers. As long as it is a bullish coin, it must be a strong dealer. No matter what coin it is, only retail investors buying it cannot drive the rise. Even if it rises, it will fall back, and retail investors cannot form a joint force. So the decline is also due to the distribution of chips, and the rise is also due to the main force pulling the market.
A good bid requires a brutal wash! It does not mean that a brutal wash is a good bid. Many bids are heading for zero! Bitcoin chain inscription Memecoin leader! Originated in the Chinese-speaking circle, after the continuous efforts of the community, Rats has obviously spread to the world! Every round of bull market is driven by a strong narrative!
Rats has experienced ups and downs and has become popular. Its popularity is about to take off. I wrote the following script for rats:
1. The market value will exceed 200 million within a month;
2. In the next 1-2 months, with the rebound of the market, it is not ruled out that the market value will reach 300 million or 400 million;
3. There will be 10-20% fluctuations in the middle;
4. I may get my money back within a month and reduce my position, but I will not close it all. At least keep 50% of the position and take it again
5. Those who have opened more rats contract funding will slowly start to receive funding fees (those who open short positions will increase)

Yesterday's data performed poorly, and Fed Chairman Bostic also announced that interest rates would be cut in the fourth quarter.
However, there are two important data worth paying attention to: next week's non-farm payrolls and the CPI data the week after next. The actual non-farm unemployment rate in May was 3.96%, which is not much different from the expected 3.9%.
According to market expectations, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States in June 2024 is expected to be 180,000, which is lower than the actual data of 272,000 in May, but higher than the actual data of 175,000 in April.
If the non-farm data in June meets or exceeds expectations, it may be regarded as positive by the market. However, the specific impact needs further observation.