Yesterday (JUN 25), Bitcoin spot ETF finally stopped the outflow of funds, and the uncertainty reflected in the options market also basically fell. Since the Mentougou compensation trustee officially announced on June 24 that repayment would start in early July, the price of Bitcoin has fallen for a short time due to the panic in the market. Alex Thorn, head of Galaxy research, said in a post that the number of tokens finally distributed to individual creditors in the bankruptcy case is less than people think, about 65,000 BTC (far lower than the 140,000 previously announced by the media), and the Bitcoin selling pressure it caused will be less than expected. This is mainly because some creditors chose debt acceptance (similar to FTX's packaged sale of debt) and received early payment, and the money eventually flowed to large institutions. In addition, the letter did not mention the specific repayment period, but it should not be too short, and these Mentougou creditors themselves are also early digital currency users who are proficient in technology. There is reason to believe that creditors obviously prefer long-term Bitcoin holders, so the maximum daily selling pressure is not exaggerated.

Source: Farside Investors；SignalPlus，ATM Vol

Judging from the price trend of the currency yesterday, although the price rebounded to around 62,000 and the ETF temporarily ended the outflow of funds, it still cannot change the current negative sentiment and poor liquidity. Therefore, the next macro trend should be paid attention to, such as PCE this Friday, the speech of Fed Chairman Powell next Tuesday, and the hourly wage and non-agricultural data next Friday, which will affect the market repricing and capital flow.

Source: SignalPlus Economic Calendar, Important US economic events this week

Source: SignalPlus Economic Calendar, important US economic events next week

Source: Deribit (as of 26 JUN 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

In terms of trading, after the panic subsided, BTC saw bargain-hunting of call options in late June and July. In addition, a large transaction at the end of September was also particularly eye-catching. This strategy protected the remote positions by selling 190 ATM Calls worth 62,000 in exchange for 1,140 Puts worth 48,000 in an almost zero-cost manner.

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH transactions

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade

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