Without destruction, there is no construction! Bitcoin fell below $60,000, and the selling pressure of Mt. Gox's 9 billion compensation may be overestimated!
At 4 a.m. today, Bitcoin fell 8.1%, breaking $60,000 to $58,528, the biggest drop since April 13. Many people attributed the decline to the upcoming compensation of Mt. Gox in July, which may bring billions of dollars of selling pressure. However, a careful analysis will find that the impact of selling pressure may be overestimated by the market.
Mt. Gox's compensation is not a one-time compensation for all assets, but provides two options, including basic compensation and proportional compensation. In simple terms, it means either early compensation, but the amount will be discounted, or more compensation, but it must be proportional and the time period will be long. Some people have calculated that if creditors want to obtain a higher proportion of compensation, they may have to wait five to nine years.
The reason why the compensation in July has attracted attention this time is mainly because Mt. Gox paid back in the form of BTC and BCH for the first time.
Analysts at Bloomberg believe that if all of Mt.Gox's bitcoins enter the market, more than half of the inflows of Bitcoin ETFs will be offset. There is also a view that Bitcoin faces less selling pressure because individual creditors clearly prefer long-term Bitcoin holders and are early adopters who are proficient in technology.
There is another interesting phenomenon in today's market. Although Bitcoin has experienced a relatively large correction, the altcoins have not broken new lows, and some have even risen instead of falling, indicating that some large funds still have a bottom line. Perhaps they know that this time it is more of an emotional "killing".
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