Sometimes, it is more accurate to use the fear and greed index to guess the top and bottom than to look at the K-line.

At present, the fear and greed index has reached a new level and has fallen to the lowest point since this bull market (if there has been a bull market). Looking back at previous bull markets, such low numbers are rare in the early and middle stages of bull markets.

Combined with the K-line, the 5.8w that the big cake reached early this morning is a very delicate position. I estimate that the probability of the big cake reaching the bottom here is 50%+

As for whether it is the bottom, it still needs to be further judged by the subsequent performance, such as the strength of the rebound, the strength of the retracement, the time of the shock, etc. ...

In terms of operation, you can take a low position, but don't chase the rise.

Even if this is the bottom, it will not rise to 7w tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. It takes time to build a bottom.

As for whether a worse situation will occur, observe the low point of 5.6w on May 1.

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