Latest developments in the Mentougou Black Swan incident:

Mt.Gox is about to pay BTC. How much selling pressure will it bring?

Creditors have been trapped in the Mt.Gox bankruptcy case for more than 10 years-finally the trustee said that the physical distribution of BTC and BCH will begin in July.

We believe that the number of tokens distributed will be less than people think, and it will cause less Bitcoin selling pressure than the market expects. Here are the reasons:

The data in this article is based on reviewing bankruptcy applications, conversations with creditors, and various assumptions. Please note that these are estimates and are intended to provide direction rather than certainty. This is not investment advice, please do your own research.

Mt.Gox pays BTC distribution details How much BTC will be sold

On May 13, a notice was sent to Galaxy customers and counterparties, which detailed some numbers, see the summary figure below.

Mt.Gox lost about 940,000 BTC (424 million US dollars at the time) and recovered 15% (141,868 BTC, or about 63.9 million US dollars at the time), now worth $9 billion. Although only 15% has been recovered, this is a 140x gain for creditors in USD terms.

In order to get paid now (early payout), creditors accepted a write-down of about 10%. We believe that about 75% of BTC creditors chose this option, and about 95,000 Bitcoins were used for early payout.

Of these, about 20,000 Bitcoins went to the claims fund, about 10,000 Bitcoins went to Bitcoinica BK, and the remaining about 65,000 Bitcoins went to individual creditors. 65,000 BTC/BCH is far lower than the 141,868 Bitcoins regularly published by the media.

But there is also reason to believe that individual creditors will be more inclined to hold Bitcoin than the market expects.

Bitcoin is now back above $60,000.