Fed Policy and ETF Cash Flows

ETF cash flows and policies of the US Federal Reserve (FED) currently show a high possibility that the FED will cut interest rates this July. This may be due to pressure from the ongoing war, which is affecting prices and increasing inflation, making the financial situation more difficult to grasp. The interest rate cut will help increase liquidity in the market, boosting asset prices including cryptocurrencies.

Market Confidence

Market confidence is currently bolstered by predictions of interest rate cuts. When the FED cuts interest rates, this is usually a positive signal for financial markets, including the cryptocurrency market. The reduction in interest rates will boost investment and trading in the cryptocurrency market as investors seek higher returns from risky assets.

Technical Analysis

Based on the chart provided, there are some important points to note:

  1. Trading Volume and Candle Body:

    • Trading volume increased in important support price areas.

    • The candle body shows divergence, especially on the monthly, weekly and daily timeframes.

  2. RSI Index:

    • The RSI is currently at 25.72, showing that the market is in an oversold state.

    • RSI divergence is a buy signal when the price drops to support.

  3. Support and Resistance Levels:

    • The current critical support level is around $58,000. This is the price level that Bitcoin can recover from if it holds.

    • The main resistance is around $66,000. If the price surpasses this level, the market may continue to grow.

Comments for Quarter 3 and Quarter 4 of This Year

  • Bitcoin (BTC): If the FED cuts interest rates and the economic situation stabilizes, Bitcoin price could increase to $66,000 - $72,000 in the third and fourth quarters of this year. Increased market liquidity and confidence will boost Bitcoin prices.

  • Altcoins: Many altcoins have dropped sharply (>40%) from their highest prices in March, creating buying opportunities. For example:

    • Ethereum (ETH): Currently around $3,300, could rise to $4,000 - $4,800.

    • Binance (BNB): Currently around $569, could rise to $660 - $700.

    • Solana (SOL): Currently around $131, could rise to $200 - $210.

Conclude

The cryptocurrency market is showing positive signs from FED policy and technical indicators. Investors can consider buying gradually at important support prices and when the RSI shows positive divergence. It is necessary to closely monitor policy and market situations to adjust investment strategies promptly.

These comments help investors have a clearer view of the market and make appropriate decisions in the third and fourth quarters of this year.

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