Today, the market sentiment panic index has quietly climbed. Judging from today's data, investors' nervousness has quietly emerged, and the turnover rate has nearly doubled, as if foreshadowing an impending storm. The Mentougou compensation issue, in the context of the current lack of market liquidity and bleak macro data, has added fuel to the fire and intensified the panic in the market.

Imagine that the distribution of 141,686 BTC is like a bombshell dropped into the market, and many investors can't help but worry that this may trigger a selling frenzy. However, although these selling pressures have an impact on prices, the market's reaction is not entirely the same.

This turmoil is like a dramatic drama, in which investors play various roles, some panic, some calmly respond. But please remember that the direction of the market is not determined by a single factor, but the result of many factors intertwined. Therefore, when facing panic, we should stay calm and analyze the market situation rationally to make wise investment decisions.

If there is a positive shift in macroeconomic sentiment in July, the market generally expects that the Fed's interest rate cut policy may be increased from one to two, which will help ease the market's concerns about BTC selling. Importantly, these 141,696 BTC are not flooded into the market all at once, but released in batches, which will reduce the immediate impact on the market. Especially in the context of BTC prices already being on an upward trend, such batch selling is more likely to be absorbed by the market, thereby reducing its impact on the overall market.

However, if this week’s core PCE and next week’s non-agricultural data perform poorly, even just one-tenth of the Mentougou BTC selling volume may have a significant impact on the market. This is because unsatisfactory macro data will weaken the purchasing power of the market, thereby exacerbating the selling pressure on BTC. The spread of Mentougou-related information today is against the background of weak macro data, which has led to a decline in market purchasing power and an increase in selling pressure.

However, ETH has become more resilient after falling all the way in the early morning! The ETH series refused to continue to fall, and most of the altcoins did not follow the decline! The law of extremes will reverse! The outstanding performances include the AI ​​sector, RWA sector, re-staking sector, and SOL ecosystem!

BTC

Accelerate out, panic sell! Short-term rebound pressure 61300-61700, there will be inertial decline, wait for a second test to confirm! Short-term support 59600-58400. It is not ruled out that the low point of 56500 will be tested again! So we have to wait for a fund accumulation structure to be destroyed!

ETH

Obviously, the negative news affected BTC, and ETH did not follow the decline. The short-term rebound pressure is 3390-3350. Let's see if the support of 3310-3260 is effective! Be patient and wait for the accumulation structure to be destroyed!

Altcoins peak 547 days after each Bitcoin block reward halving

547 days of almost perfection

The latest Bitcoin halving will take place on April 19, 2024

The date in 547 days is October 17, 2025

Sell ​​it all that day, not today!

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