The cryptocurrency market has been pretty sluggish lately, with altcoins falling over the past three months and Bitcoin stagnating. I expect this slump to continue through the summer, why?

First of all, in the past week, the cryptocurrency market experienced the second largest weekly decline since 2024. Despite the sluggish market performance, various data are not satisfactory:

1. Overall market cap decline: The altcoin market lost more than $25 billion over the weekend. The price of ETH and other top 10 altcoins dropped by 3-10%. Looking back historically, the total market cap of the altcoin market has dropped by 50% since its 2021 all-time high, and the recent correction has caused it to drop by another 30%.

2. Macroeconomic impact, there are still doubts about whether the Federal Reserve will turn to interest rate cuts, which has a significant impact on the crypto market. As mentioned before, the prediction of interest rate cut will have to wait until September.

3. BTC has reached the last support level of the entire wide range of fluctuations! There is good news. The long liquidity gathered at 63,000 has been fully liquidated, and the downward momentum is not as strong as before. The bad news is that the funding rate can still remain neutral at such a panic moment, but the descending wedge still exists, which may be the only hope for the bulls.

Why are the counterfeit products in the current market so unsatisfactory?

① Too many new villages have been launched, and the review of new villages is not strict. In the past three days, three new villages have been launched, including ZK, ZRO, and IO. Moreover, the market value of the new villages launched is too high, false propaganda is serious, and the number of unlocked villages is abnormally large.

② The market liquidity is insufficient, there are too many copycats, and the first-level copycats are seriously sucking blood. ETF funds slowly flow into the big cakes and concubines, and the copycats lack liquidity.

③ Most project owners have no vision and sell as soon as the project goes online. They basically do not support the market. When the old project disappears, a new one will be launched online and they continue to reap the profits.

④ The market hype disappears, and the price falls at the slightest disturbance. The Value Village and the Fan Village do not take over each other. It is difficult to hoard coins in the market now, and the long-term trend will return to zero.

The only hope for the market is that institutions work together to boost the market, my ETF will be traded, liquidity will increase, the war will end, interest rates will be lowered, and a presidential election will take place!

In the inscription sector not long ago, why did retail investors always get scammed?

Friends who entered the market from last year to this year, even if they have not bought one, they must have heard of the inscription plate ordi (Audi)

This coin is like FIL in the past, it is very popular. The hotter the market is, the more people will lose money, because the main force wants to attract retail investors to take over.

Why do retail investors always fall into the trap?

First: Investing based on news

When you hear others say that a currency is good, even if you don’t know whether it has value, you will blindly be optimistic and easily be influenced by others;

Second: Investing based on price

I see that the stock has been rising well on the gain list, but I don’t know how to analyze the market and whether I can still buy it. I rush in and hope that it will continue to rise, but the stock price is always at a high level.

It's like the main force has installed surveillance cameras behind the scenes. The coins you don't buy keep rising, and the coins you buy fall.

In fact, it is because the main force has grasped all your psychology and predicted your actions, but you know nothing about the main force and the market, and cannot understand the market trend. How can you win?

Where is the next hot spot in the cryptocurrency world?

It is obvious where the liquidity is. Those who entered the circle early should also know that from 2017 to 2021, until now, what is the most hyped? L1. It's just that there will be new public chain projects in each round. Both new and old have opportunities. It depends on your personal investment and research ability. There are many old public chains that are not good, so I won't give examples one by one. You all understand.

In addition to public chains, are there other tracks with good liquidity? Yes, meme, games. Right. Or new tracks and new narratives, such as brc20. In November last year, the market was quite flat, and we thought the market had entered the right side, but who would have thought that the hot spots of inscriptions and BTC ecology suddenly broke out and ignited the market again.

Next, the re-staking track became the main theme. The entire Web3 industry has been a non-stop experiment. Some tracks died as soon as they came out, while others became popular overnight, bringing strong expectations.

Now L2 is similar. Starting from zk, Blast, Linea, and Scroll are all projects with more than 10 million yuan in financing, and their returns are shrinking. L2 may slowly lose popularity like NFT. But don't worry, there are always new ways to play. The next wave of hot spots may be TON? Modularization? Or some other new concept? The industry dividends are always there. As long as you find the right method and seize a few opportunities a year, you can achieve a leap in wealth!

What will happen to the cryptocurrency world next? My guess

After the halving in April, May is a month to slowly adjust the mentality of retail investors. However, the real rise will start from mid-to-late June to July, and the market will gradually explode. The main uptrend of the bull market that everyone has been looking forward to for 2 years will officially break out. Starting from July this year, the market will continue to rise. That is the time when I said that the world will reach a consensus on Bitcoin. Both retail investors and institutions will be crazy about fomo, but please remember that it officially starts in July, and it’s okay to treat it as an appetizer.

After July, the overall consensus of the market was formed, and then the world officially entered the hype of the cryptocurrency bull market. This is a market with real institutional participation, so it will definitely not be the same as in the past. The surge that you can’t even imagine will break out at that time, so you must have chips in your hands, otherwise you will be very, very anxious.

The market will be like this from August to September. There will be many ecological projects at that time. Bitcoin ecological projects are more likely to be accepted by the market and fomo, so I think it is better to abandon the Ethereum ecosystem and embrace the Bitcoin ecosystem, because the Bitcoin ecosystem has a low valuation in the early stage, and you can get relatively high-quality chips at a very low cost. The high-quality projects I am talking about here are not air inscriptions that rely on talking, but some high-quality projects with landing products and empowerment, with strong technical background and strong marketing capabilities. Of course, the Ethereum ecosystem also has a lot of opportunities, such as the various L2s after the Cancun upgrade and the subsequent ZK ecosystem, and modular public chains, DA layers, etc. are all very high-quality targets.

After the spring in July, August and September, there will be a retracement in October, but the strength of this retracement is not expected to be too great. Instead, the retracement is the best opportunity to get on board. The final big explosion will be ignited in November and December. By the end of the year, Bitcoin will reach at least 80,000+. However, don’t be carried away by the rise. There will definitely be a big retracement after the big rise. Everyone knows that institutions are not here to help you carry the sedan chair, but to make money. Institutions will withdraw when they make a profit, because institutions have year-end financial reports and liquidation work, so there will be a big retracement after the high point in December.

In summary, there won’t be much market in the two months after the halving, but there are many projects and opportunities in the related ecosystem, and we cannot lose confidence because of the adjustment of the market. In Q3 and Q4, the market will officially enter an explosive rise, so don’t be afraid, the next big correction is the best time to layout!