The market continues to go down recently, causing brothers in the currency circle to complain bitterly. The market continues to fall, and the altcoins are like a waterfall that cannot be stopped and has no bottom. This round of bull market is indeed somewhat different. At present, the indicators of the altcoins are completely at the bear market level. It is really hard to imagine that this is the current bull market data. This round of bull market is like a bull market for Bitcoin alone.
About this round of bull market:
The Bitcoin ETF caused the market to start earlier than in the previous rounds. In the last round, the altcoins were still lying at the bottom and did not start to explode until July and August. Now is the normal correction after the Bitcoin halving, and the altcoin season may also start in July.
The entire financial market is not so lacking in liquidity. The U.S. stock market has been rising quite well. The cryptocurrency circle is not doing well and lacks major innovations to attract new funds. If the Bitcoin ETF had not been approved, the situation might be even worse now. Where there is innovation, the wealth effect is good, such as the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Even if Q4 begins the interest rate cut cycle, the scale of new money injection will be much lower than the previous round, but the speed of new project coin issuance and online market value will far exceed the previous round. Don’t expect a general bull market in the copycat market. The overall expectations are lowered. These large-cap projects in the secondary market are of no significance to the leeks except for shipping and sucking blood.
The previous bull market was moving too fast, and many copycats did not have time to do anything. If it had continued to be so fast, the bull market might have ended early. The current pullback brings several benefits: the bull market can last longer, copycats have enough time to prepare, and good projects can get on board in a good position again. The more severe the wash, the stronger the rebound will be.
July's turnaround is indeed not groundless
In the past, the probability of Bitcoin rising in July was 63.64%. July may be due to the mid-year reason. We can see that July is the month with the highest probability of reversal relative to the previous month. Third, the two times that there was no reversal from June to July were in 2015 and 2017, both of which were continuous rises. In other words, BTC has never had a history of falling for two consecutive months from June to July. Of course, with only eleven or twelve years of samples, the persuasiveness of the data is also limited.
July is a period of policy vacuum for the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is held approximately every 6 weeks. Therefore, some months will be skipped, resulting in a policy vacuum month. The Federal Reserve will hold its next FOMC meeting on July 31, 2024, Eastern Time, and August 1, 2024, Beijing Time. Therefore, July of this year is basically in a policy vacuum period.
After all, the market is more sensitive to the Fed's policies, but during this vacuum period, the Fed has no monetary policy. Of course, it is not ruled out that Powell or a certain official's speech will also affect the market, but this influence is smaller than the decision-making of the FOMC meeting and the formal speech.
The bull market phase is not over yet
If we look at it from the perspective of bull and bear phases, we are now in the middle of the fourth bull market in the cryptocurrency circle. A 4-year cycle, 3 years of bear market, 1 year of bull market. In a bull market, the first 8 months are basically a slow wash-out decline. The next 2 months are a surge, and the last 2 months are a peak.
Strictly speaking, the bull market started in October 2023. So now the bull market is interrupted. The bull market still has more than 2 months to go. The real outbreak period has not yet come. The outbreak period should be around August to October. It will end around May 2025.
The most important thing in the cryptocurrency world is efficiency. It was born to change the efficiency of finance, so it must eliminate junk projects. When the bear market starts, you can’t hold on to anything except BTC and ETH. There may be only two targets that can really cross the cycle, one is BTC and the other is ETH. The others may just be runners-up, so wait patiently for the arrival of the violent bull market!
