Casino explosion after ETH
ETH is the most successful asset issuance. From ICO to NFT, and then to ERC20 ecology, gambling methods have emerged one after another, but finally became weak after a few years. After the success of the ETH model, hundreds of public chains were listed, from EOS, DOT to SOL, and then to ARB and OP, which actually provided hundreds of new casinos. These casinos have no innovation in gameplay. What the new casinos claim to be the fastest can do in the old casinos, especially now that GAS is only 1, and it is even safer.
The number of gamblers in the entire market has not increased, and the total amount of money spent on buying chips has increased from 136 billion to 150 billion, with limited growth. What’s more interesting is that each new casino is still collecting membership fees. Casino owners and developers build casinos and invite all gamblers: “Buy my casino pass. Although it has no value, there may be other gamblers who want to speculate on it.”
Casinos are busting, but gamblers are decreasing
Now, we can see a phenomenon: from 2021 to now, 300 new public chain casinos have been opened, and each has launched its own casino pass gambling, but the gameplay of each casino is basically the same as the old casino: DEX, lending and MEME, nothing new. Moreover, the number of gamblers has decreased instead of increased. According to the Google Index, the number of people currently paying attention to BTC and ETH is much less than expected, which is basically the same as in the bear market.
The plight of altcoins
Many people were fully invested in the range of 70-90 USD. When ORDI fell to over 30 USD, they repeatedly asked me whether they could continue to hold it. You should understand that the premise of my analysis is "invest within a reasonable range and deploy in batches". Being heavily invested will lead to anxiety about gains and losses. In this case, no one can provide valuable advice if you ask me.
We have learned a lot from ORDI's ups and downs. Market fluctuations are normal. What is important is to analyze rationally and make investments in batches instead of blindly following the trend. In the crypto market, you should always be responsible for your investment decisions and learn to think independently instead of relying on others. I hope that everyone will be able to respond more calmly in the next market fluctuation, seize opportunities, and realize wealth appreciation.
The cycle of cryptocurrency speculation
Cryptocurrency trading is a cycle. Every round of rise brings tragedy because of missing out, and every round of decline brings pain because of being trapped in ALL IN. I hope everyone can learn to think and be responsible for their own investment instead of pinning their hopes on others. When the market plummets again, don't complain, but slowly buy the bottom.
Casinos are busting, but gamblers are decreasing
After ETH, new casinos exploded. ETH is the most successful asset issuance. From ICO to NFT, and then to ERC20 ecology, gambling methods have emerged in an endless stream, but finally became weak after a few years. After the success of the ETH model, from EOS, DOT to SOL, and then to ARB and OP, hundreds of public chains were listed, which actually provided hundreds of new casinos. These casinos have no innovation in gameplay. What the new casinos claim to be the fastest can do can also be done in the old casinos, especially now that GAS is only 1, and it is even safer.
The number of gamblers in the entire market has not increased, and the total amount of money spent on buying chips has increased from 136 billion to 150 billion, with limited growth. What’s more interesting is that each new casino is still collecting membership fees. Casino owners and developers build casinos and invite all gamblers: “Buy my casino pass. Although it has no value, there may be other gamblers who want to speculate on it.”
Now, we can see a phenomenon: from 2021 to now, 300 new public chain casinos have been opened, and each has launched its own casino pass gambling, but the gameplay of each casino is basically the same as the old casino: DEX, lending and MEME, nothing new. Moreover, the number of gamblers has decreased instead of increased. According to the Google Index, the number of people currently paying attention to BTC and ETH is much less than expected, which is basically the same as in the bear market.
The plight of altcoins
Why did the altcoins fall so badly? From project owners, market makers, exchanges to retail investors, everyone knows that altcoins are a speculative game, and of course MEME is even more so. When everyone is on the train, as long as it does not rise, it is dangerous for altcoins. Investing is making friends with time, while holding altcoins is the enemy of time. This is why I think it is not advisable to participate in any staking, because participating will easily make you a profit provider.
Countless altcoins are surging, and every air project is enthusiastically inviting you to get on board, but the donkey that is running blindly is now overwhelmed, limping, and scarred, and can no longer catch up. The exquisite model of low circulation and high FDV, coupled with the intensive issuance of coins in the bull market, is headed by the leek with yellow faces and shiny eyes, and the scene is horrible.
Is “One Yang Changes Three Views” outdated?
The traditional view is "one yang changes three views", but I think this saying is outdated. A few years ago, it was indeed effective to pull the market, but now it can attract attention but cannot change the long-term trend. The leeks have become smarter and are afraid of being cut. Pulling the market can only attract attention for a short time and cannot form long-term beliefs. If you look for all the currencies on the Internet, it is difficult to find a pile of hundred-fold coins like Binance in 2021. Now Binance is thankful for one or two times. Not to mention the on-chain, the life of a MEME can be as short as a few minutes or as long as a few days.
Three questions to think about
If you are a banker: When the investors are cautious and fearful, how confident are you that your manipulation of the market will not turn into someone else selling out?
If you are a leek: Are you sure that the dealer is super rich and has a good vision, and will only pull up the market and not crash it?
If you are a VC: After your 10x-100x chips are unlocked, are you willing to wait for the project party to take action, the market makers to pull the price, and the retail investors to FOMO, or just sell them directly on the spot?
If everyone thinks this way, it will be difficult for altcoins, and it will be a highly tense game of running away from the virus.
Future prediction: AI sucks the cryptocurrency world
There may be a bull market for altcoins, such as capital outflow after interest rate cuts, but that will take a long time. By then, 90% of the current project parties will have a huge amount of unlocking, and the market will find it difficult to digest the estimated selling pressure of more than 5 billion per month. This will cause the market to run faster, and the most qualified people to run are the chips locked by VCs and project parties. Considering that more and more project parties have unlocked since March this year, altcoins are a game of running fast, and those who run slowly will fall into the poison circle.
Conclusion 1: Mainstream currencies are more stable
If you want to play, you can only play with big coins such as BTC and ETH, or participate in altcoins very sensitively. The key is, it is better to make less money than to lose a lot. Be cautious when getting on the train, don't go up if it doesn't fall too much. If you are trapped or the momentum is not right, observe first, and remember to cash in the profits when you make money. This set of playing methods tests the sense of the market, but the risk of mainstream coins is relatively small, and you can make less money but not lose a lot. If you go directly into a bear market, everyone will suffer.
Conclusion 2: The cryptocurrency industry needs new traffic
If no new casinos are opened and no new traffic is generated, the future deep bear market will be even more terrifying. After the BTC ETF is approved, BTC will become a target of US stocks and a high-risk risk asset, but its appeal is far less than that of US technology stocks. Nvidia continues to set new highs, and Apple, Microsoft, Google, etc. continue to rise. The era of rapid development in the cryptocurrency circle is over.
ETH is an “innovation at the level of human civilization”, but it only has a few applications of some value, such as DEX and lending. Other leading projects have only a few hundred active users per day, and are still far from “achieving innovation at the level of human civilization”. ETH is now worth 400 billion, while Tesla is worth 500 billion, and is a multi-faceted giant with global autonomous driving systems, artificial intelligence robots, and massive AI data in the future.
Looking at BTC, we can say that "Bitcoin will be worth $1 million in the future", but now the market value of BTC is 130 million, and even if it doubles, it will only be on par with Nvidia. Nvidia is considered the cornerstone of the AI era, and the AI era is the third largest civilization-level leap after the steam revolution and the Internet.
Summarize
The valuations of some projects are not low: the valuations of the top value coins in the cryptocurrency circle, BTC and ETH, are not low compared with the value targets of US stocks.
Ecological project bubbles are huge: The ecological project bubbles in the currency circle are huge, and the selling pressure is huge. The market value of the altcoin is 10 billion, there are 30 people on the chain, and there is a selling pressure of 500 million per month. Where is the value?
MEME is unsustainable: MEME is consensus and sentiment, PEPE is its representative, but it requires more and more funds after rising, which is unsustainable.
AI sucks blood from the cryptocurrency world: The AI narrative of the U.S. stock market attracts large global funds, and all this will continue under the background of low value and high bubble in the cryptocurrency world. If the U.S. stock market collapses, the cryptocurrency world will only be worse off.
Final summary: The approval of ETH ETF will only be a short-term positive.