June 24 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

The market is weak and falling, but the implied volatility of ETH's bullish side is still rising. Wait patiently for the ETF in July

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I. Core Views

1- Yesterday I did a survey. At present, it seems that#Tonhas the highest support rate. A video of Ton will be released soon;

2- It can be seen from the option skew that if the ETF event of ETH is catalyzed, the possibility of a rapid rise is very high. The layout at the end of July can moderately adjust the strike point;

3- The copycat options will look at how ordi does it later. At present, it already holds 50% of the spot positions, mainly positions added around US$35;

II. Summary

Position:

Since there were not many large volumes during the past two days of the weekend, we mainly talk about the overall thinking in the near future. I subjectively judge that the bull market has not ended. As for how long this round of adjustment will last, it is currently unpredictable. As for the positions, as mentioned last week, 50-60% BTC, ETH spot; 30% Cash; 10% high-quality altcoins. In addition, if options are less leveraged or not leveraged on the put side, the current decline will have a very small impact on our mentality. If the call side is leveraged, you can control the profit and loss ratio in combination with your own spot position. I personally put the odds at 1:4 to 1:6, and will not pull the winning rate too low because of paying special attention to the odds.

Mentality:

Recently, it is boring time. You can spend more time on self-construction, such as learning, building communities, and fitness. I will personally spend more energy on option community construction and output of high-quality content in the future.

3. Macro market

The current problem of the A-share market is more obvious, which is a confidence problem. As of now, the story of the July meeting has not been told. The ZC side is very quiet and there is no abnormal movement in the sector.

Last Friday, GJD appeared in the A-share market, so it is actually difficult for the broad-based index to fall. In-depth volatility iv analysis or problem solving, we put it on the planet