Original author: Terry
Original source: Vernacular Blockchain
In the past two months, although memes and top project airdrops have been hot topics, the market has been in a rather paradoxical downturn - the roar of bears can be vaguely heard, the steps of bulls are vague, and the market has collapsed. and restarting seemed to only take a moment.
This article will excavate and sort out some fermenting events hidden in the market in the past two months, while looking forward to the positive factors that may be ignored in the future, and looking forward to the main storyline that may stir up trouble in the first half of the year.
BTC spot ETF inflows turn from negative to positive
The market always likes to overestimate the short-term effects of new things and underestimate their long-term impact. For the Bitcoin spot ETF, which has been launched for nearly half a year, there is a recent signal worthy of attention:
According to SoSoValue data, the Bitcoin spot ETF has shown a new wave of capital inflows since mid-May, which lasted for nearly a month. On June 4, it reached the second-highest value in history of US$886 million (second only to 1.05 billion on March 12).
Although there has been a continuous decline since the beginning of this week, the overall situation has been significantly reversed compared with April and May. As of the time of publication (June 21), the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF was US$56.24 billion, the ETF net asset ratio (market value as a proportion of the total market value of Bitcoin) reached 4.39%, and the cumulative historical net inflow reached US$14.67 billion.
Cryptocurrency regulatory wheel turns, Ethereum spot ETF suddenly accelerates
The wind starts at the end of Qingping. In the context of the 2024 election year, the macro environment has been obviously improving recently, both at the regulatory and financial levels, brewing a new round of bullish catalysts.
First, on May 22, the Financial Innovation and Technology Act for the 21st Century (FIT21 Act) was passed by the House of Representatives with an overwhelming vote of 279 to 136, and was then officially approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on May 24. Form 19b-4 for 8 Ethereum spot ETFs.
This means that the stance of U.S. regulators has shifted from tough to softening, especially since the Ethereum ETF’s expectations have been greatly advanced through the node, and it seems to be just a step away from the final launch. Interestingly, although the attitude of U.S. regulators has changed this time The speed of approval and approval were both much faster than expected, but looking back afterwards, it seems that there are still no traces to be found:
At least as early as around US$3,000, giant whales such as Justin Sun began to accumulate ETH chips and firmly went long on the ETH/BTC exchange rate. This also seems to indicate that individuals/institutions with a keen sense of smell are already making early arrangements.
Most directly, ETH's performance in the secondary market also swept away the previous decline and began to gradually strengthen. The most obvious is the change in the exchange rate of ETH/BTC. You must know that since October last year, ETH has continued to fall compared to BTC, and the exchange rate ratio of ETH/BTC has dropped from above 0.064 to below 0.045.
Since mid-May, the exchange rate ratio of ETH/BTC has begun to go out of a downward trend. In the past month, it has broken through the 0.05 and 0.055 marks, reaching the highest recent high of 0.058, which is relatively strong overall.
Traditional Web2 players accelerate layout Web3
On June 6, Robinhood officials announced that they would acquire the crypto trading platform Bitstamp for US$200 million to expand beyond the United States. The two parties have now reached an acquisition agreement, but it is subject to regulatory approval - compared to the 2018 acquisition of the South Korean company NXC The acquisition price of subsidiary NXMH was half of the US$400 million, which was a big mistake.
As we all know, Robinhood is one of the most commonly used stock and crypto CEXs by US users, with 11 million monthly active users, and is even more popular than Coinbase in the crypto trading field: Robinhood’s trading-based revenue in the first quarter of this year was year-on-year Growth of 59%, reaching US$329 million, of which cryptocurrency revenue was US$126 million, an increase of 232% over the same period last year, a very strong performance.
As the longest-running crypto CEX in the world, Bitstamp, established in 2011, is also considered one of the CEXs with higher compliance. It not only operates in Luxembourg, the United Kingdom, Slovenia, Singapore and the United States, but also operates in 50 countries around the world. Having valid licenses and registrations in multiple countries will assist Robinhood in expanding its crypto business in other regions.
And this is almost a perfect complementary relationship - Robinhood's current market is mainly focused on the United States, while competitors Kraken and eToro have stronger businesses in Europe. Therefore, although Bitstamp's 4 million users are not large, they are almost the largest. Most are in Europe, so it's a big leap for Robinhood's European expansion.
It is worth noting that just a month ago, Robinhood received a Wells notice from the staff of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding RHC’s crypto asset listing, custody and platform operations (RHC activities), etc. theme, therefore, the acquisition of Bitstamp will expand Robinhood's global layout, thereby hedging the strong regulatory impact of the US SEC and ensuring that it never leaves the table.
In addition, Fortune magazine predicts that in addition to adding about 4 million new cryptocurrency customers to Robinhood, this transaction will also enable Robinhood to provide a wider range of cryptocurrency products to more institutional customers:
Expanding from the 15 tokens currently offered in the U.S. market and more than 30 tokens in Europe to more than 85 included in Bitstamp, Bitstamp’s diverse services (such as staking, stablecoins, trading, custody and prime brokerage) have also expanded. It will help Robinhood attract more institutional customers and potentially accelerate its expansion in the European market.
The world sounds the clarion call for monetary easing
雖然近半年來美國的 CPI 和 PPI 、非農等數據多次超預期，聯準會官員也開始「強硬表態」，導致市場開始不斷調整降息預期，但至少就目前而言，通膨基本已近尾聲，大家下半年聯準會降息的押注仍持謹慎樂觀態度。
The FOMC Permanent Voting Committee, the Fed's "third leader", and New York Fed President John Williams emphasized on Tuesday that any decision on the timing or extent of interest rate cuts this year will depend on the upcoming economic data. At the same time, the Fed Council officials have lowered their expectations for planned interest rate cuts this year, with the median predicting only one rate cut.
However, Canada and the European Central Bank, regarded as the vanguard of the Federal Reserve, took the lead in blowing the turn horn and jumped the gun to cut interest rates:
On June 5, the Bank of Canada lowered interest rates from 5% to 4.75%, the first downward revision in four years;
On June 6, the European Central Bank lowered interest rates from 4% to 3.75%, the first downward revision in five years;
In any case, the trend of global interest rate cuts has further accelerated, and favorable factors at the macro level are indeed accumulating.
Large payment/financial institutions return
In addition, not long ago, BN once again allowed Mastercard users to purchase crypto assets on BN. BN-branded Visa cards have also been restored to use on the trading platform. BN stated that withdrawal services using Mastercard will resume later.
As early as March, MetaMask also reached a cooperation with Mastercard to conduct the first blockchain payment card test. Marketing materials show that the MetaMask/Mastercard payment card is issued by Baanx and will be "the first truly decentralized Web3 payment." Solution" that allows users to use cryptocurrencies for everyday purchases anywhere bank cards are accepted.
This can undoubtedly greatly solve the cognitive and entry barriers of incremental users, moving towards the direction of making deposits and withdrawals invisible (instant exchange of legal currency and stable currency), and abstracting the user experience to facilitate users (account abstraction, close to the Web2 payment experience). Moving forward, especially opening up the link between cryptocurrencies and off-chain consumption scenarios, is conducive to anchoring crypto assets with a broader asset pool.
summary
Generally speaking, in this environment where the market is suddenly warm and then cold, there are still quite a lot of positive factors slowly fermenting. As long as you observe carefully, you can still see confidence.
Although the howling of bears seems to be faintly audible, and the footsteps of bulls are far away, in this context, remaining cautiously optimistic, observing and actively participating at all times may be the only thing that can be done in the current market atmosphere.
(The above content is excerpted and reprinted with the authorization of partner MarsBit, original text link | Source: Vernacular Blockchain)
Statement: The article only represents the author's personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective views and positions of the blockchain. All contents and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and Blockchain Client will not be held responsible for any direct or indirect losses caused by investors' transactions.
"The bull market is gone?" Don't panic, there are "these plots" in the second half of 2024 that are still worth looking forward to. This article was first published on "Block Guest".
