Original author: Moonke Dev (X: @moonkedev)
1/5 How likely are you to lose money as a degen on @pumpdotfun? We analyzed 75,991 tokens created on @pumpdotfun from June 10th to June 16th. Let's dive in.
2/5 How many pumpfun tokens will be successfully listed on Raydium? Of the 75,991 tokens created between June 10 and June 16, only 1.42% were listed on Raydium. 85.85% of the new tokens were created by unique wallets, while 14.15% were created by duplicate wallets.
3/5 How long does it take for a token to be listed on Raydium? Among all the tokens deployed from pumpfun to Radydium:
50th percentile token: takes 15 minutes to list on Raydium
75th percentile token: 59 minutes to list on Raydium
90th percentile token: 4.9 hours to list on Raydium
If your tokens are not deployed on Raydium within 5 hours, you may lose this opportunity forever.
4/5 What is the probability that your investment will go to zero? Of the 75,991 tokens we queried, 97.43% have less than 1 SOL liquidity and 98.41% have less than 10 SOL liquidity. If your token is not deployed on Raydium, there is a greater than 99% probability that your investment will go to “zero”.
5/5 Lessons for degens:
1. Only about 1.4% of tokens are ultimately deployed on Raydium
2. If the token is not deployed on Raydium within 1 hour, consider Jeet (early exit). Otherwise, there is a more than 99% chance that your investment will be “zero”.
3. Follow @moonkebiz and @moonkedev to get memecoin related alpha information
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