I personally still think the altcoin chart looks pretty bad and I don’t see any strong moves coming yet.
Sure, we can have a mini alt season, but you usually need some sort of catalyst (and a healthy BTC).
That being said, there will certainly be rallies. Even altcoin gains of +50% are entirely possible, as their charts have been mostly down since March (with a bearish retest last month).
Generally speaking, I think we need to see one of two things before altcoins rally across the board:
1- Final capitulation. Usually this is some kind of final shock. See $SOL in December 2020
2- Another possible scenario is some kind of extended consolidation period. See $DOT or $ZIL here
I think one of these two things has to happen before any long term strong moves in altcoins can occur.Many altcoin/bitcoin charts look pretty bad too.
The charts for many shitcoins look like this:
From the strong performance from January to March, there has been a one-month downward trend.
1 month upward trend. April-May
1 month (so far) downtrend. May-June
Some notes:
- Lower highs have been made recently and the market structure of almost all altcoins is bearish
-Most altcoins have fully given back their previous gains
-BTC hasn’t fallen as much relatively speaking, but of course it always does
-Alt/BTC chart is completely broken and has been for months
- It might make sense to see some kind of bounce. The next high is worth watching. If the high is lower, the downtrend will continue
-Unless you know what you are doing (which few of us do), this may not be the best place for you to trade actively.
Stay safe and preserve capital Having said that, you should understand that altcoins will definitely see a major surge eventually. I just don’t know when or how it will happen. But expect a major surge in the price of most altcoins later this year.
Predicting how long the Alt season will last is virtually impossible because each growth period is different from the previous one.
But you can roughly tell when it starts.
Today, I will share the 5 market indicators that have helped me the most so far.
➣Ethereum to Bitcoin chart:
A key indicator of the upcoming altcoin season is the ETH/BTC chart.
When Ethereum starts to significantly outperform Bitcoin, it usually means that funds are flowing from BTC to ETH. This shift usually leads to price increases in other altcoins as well.
Now we can also see a bullish divergence at a key level.
BB trend indicator:
The BBTrend indicator helps in understanding the market dynamics using Bollinger Bands.
It calculates the difference between the lower and upper limits, giving a clear picture of the market trend.
By tracking these changes, we can identify the beginning or end of a potential trend, helping us spot when an altcoin might take off.
Right now, this suggests we are in a state of short-term indecision and could peak soon.
➣Halving cycle indicator:
The Bitcoin halving event has a significant impact on the market. Historically, the price of Bitcoin starts to rise about six months before the halving.
Post-halving, Bitcoin tends to maintain a stable price action, allowing altcoins to cool down and consolidate.
After this consolidation, new resistance in Bitcoin dominance could spark a massive rally in altcoins.
Think of the days when BTC is up 5-10% and altcoins are up twice as much — that’s the start of altcoin season.
➢Logarithmic Market Chart:
Logarithmic charts help to intuitively understand market trends over a longer period of time. During the consolidation phase, the market will gradually cool down, weak links will gradually disappear, and strong links will gradually increase.
Once we get out of these consolidation phases, the market usually rebounds sharply.
Observing these patterns can help us predict when the next altcoin season will begin.
We are currently in a cool-down period, so be on the lookout for signs of an outbreak.
➣ RSI and MACD combination:
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are powerful tools when used together.
The RSI measures the speed and variance of price movements, helping to identify overbought or oversold conditions.
MACD shows the relationship between two moving averages, indicating changes in momentum and trend.
In a zoomed out frame, when both the RSI and MACD signal a bearish trend of lower lows and higher peaks, it usually signals a strong rally for altcoins.
Monitoring these indicators on altcoin charts can give us early warning of the onset of altcoin season.
In addition to the above, there are also non-technical indicators.
- Big players buy more Bitcoin 🔥
- General updates and partnerships between projects 🔥
- Burning and updating token economics 🔥
