Bitcoin market volatility analysis: data release triggers violent reaction
After two days of low volatility and decline, the Bitcoin market ushered in a significant rise yesterday (20th). At around 4 p.m., the price of Bitcoin climbed all the way to around $66,492, approaching the key resistance level of $66,500. However, this upward momentum came to an abrupt end after the release of data on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States at 20:30.
Key data release
The latest data shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 15 was 238,000, compared with 243,000 in the previous week and 235,000 in the expected week. Although the published value was slightly higher than expected, it is generally seen as bullish news that helps push up the cryptocurrency market. However, unexpectedly, Bitcoin immediately entered a waterfall decline mode after the data was released.
Market reaction analysis
The sharp fluctuations after the data release revealed the complexity of market sentiment. Although the favorable initial jobless claims data should have pushed Bitcoin to continue to rise, the actual situation was the opposite. Bitcoin quickly gave up all the gains of the day and once fell below the $65,000 mark. As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin was $64,567, a drop of about 0.53% in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin price technical analysis: signs of a rebound are emerging
In the recent 4-hour technical analysis, Bitcoin prices show signs of potential rebound. Through the comprehensive analysis of Bollinger Bands, KDJ and MACD indicators, the current market may be at a critical turning point.
Bollinger Bands indicator analysis
At present, the price of Bitcoin is between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands and is close to the lower track. This indicates that the current price is at a relatively low position and there is a possibility of rebound. The opening of the Bollinger Bands is relatively stable, without obvious expansion or contraction, indicating that market volatility remains in a relatively stable state, which provides favorable conditions for price stabilization and rebound.
KDJ indicator analysis
In the 4-hour KDJ indicator, both the K-line value and the D-line value are below 50, and the J-line value is at a lower level, indicating an oversold state. Usually, an oversold state means that the price has the potential to rebound. More importantly, the K-line value and the D-line value show signs of forming a golden cross at a low level, which will further confirm the possibility of a rebound.
MACD indicator analysis
According to the MACD indicator, both the DIF line and the DEA line are below the 0 axis, and the DIF line crosses the DEA line upward, showing a potential bullish signal. At the same time, the current MACD green histogram is gradually shortening, indicating that the market has further momentum to rise in the short term.
Bitcoin short-term technical analysis: a rebound is brewing amid volatility
In the current 1-hour technical analysis, the price of Bitcoin shows some downward pressure, but there are also signs of potential rebound. Through the comprehensive analysis of the Bollinger Bands, KDJ and MACD indicators, we can have a clearer understanding of the short-term trend of the market.
Bollinger Bands indicator analysis
In the 1-hour Bollinger Band indicator, the Bitcoin price is running between the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands, showing downward pressure. However, the price is close to the lower band, indicating that the lower band support is strong and a rebound trend may occur in the short term. If the price can stabilize near the lower band and break through the middle band resistance, a rebound will be expected.
KDJ indicator analysis
The 1-hour KDJ indicator shows that both the K-line and D-line values are in an oversold state, which usually indicates that the market has the possibility of a rebound. The J-line value is even below 0, indicating that the market is extremely oversold. In this case, the possibility of a rebound is further increased. Investors should pay close attention to whether the KDJ indicator forms a golden cross, which will be a confirmation of the rebound signal.
MACD indicator analysis
In the MACD indicator, the DIF line is currently below the DEA line and below the 0 axis, showing the downward pressure on the market. At the same time, the MACD green bar chart gradually becomes longer, indicating that the seller's power is increasing. However, if the green bar chart begins to shorten, or the DIF line crosses the DEA line upward, it may indicate that the market is about to reverse.
Comprehensive analysis
Combining the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, Bitcoin may be in a volatile market in the short term. Although there is some downward pressure at present, multiple technical indicators show the potential for a rebound:
Bollinger Band Support: The price is close to the lower Bollinger Band, the support is strong and a rebound is likely in the short term.
KDJ oversold: The KDJ indicator shows that the market is oversold and the probability of a rebound is high.
MACD observation：Although MACD currently shows strong selling power, if the green bar chart shortens or forms a golden cross, the signs of a rebound will be clearer.
Bitcoin short-term trading strategy sharing
Long strategy:
Entry conditions: When the Bitcoin price approaches $64,500, you can consider opening a long position.
Target setting: The primary target is set around $65,350, which is a reasonable short-term target range.
Breakthrough target: If the price breaks through $65,350, consider holding further, with the target at $66,200.
Stop loss setting: In order to effectively manage risks, the stop loss is set at around $64,000. This range can effectively defend against market volatility risks.
Short selling strategy:
Entry conditions: If the Bitcoin price approaches $66,200 and fails to break through, you can consider opening a short position.
Target Setting: The main target is set at $64,600, which is an expected downside target area.
Breakthrough target: If the price falls further and breaks through $64,600, the target will be $64,200.
Stop loss setting: In order to avoid the risk of market reversal, set the stop loss level around $66,600. This range should effectively protect the position from adverse fluctuations.
