Bitcoin rebounded by nearly 1,800 points during the day, and then briefly pulled back after the positive non-farm data came out in the evening. The Federal Reserve will have a series of speeches this week, which is expected to cause the market to fluctuate back and forth. In terms of sectors, the Ethereum series was slightly stronger during the day, followed by the AI series.
Several short-term news have a relatively large impact on the market. First, the SEC terminated its investigation into Ethereum, which to some extent clarified the commodity attributes of Ethereum. The sword of Darkmos that had been hanging over its head for many years finally landed safely. Secondly, Nvidia's market value ranks first in the world. This global AI development issue will become clearer with the ongoing bull market.
The data shows two indicators that the bull market is still there. The holdings of Bitcoin on exchanges have reached the lowest point in the past three years. The holdings of all centralized platforms are about 2.82 million, which is a significant decrease compared with the more than 3 million at the beginning of this year. In addition to the Ethereum exchange holdings reaching the lowest point in 16 years as mentioned above, the accounts holding positions for more than seven years have reached a new high year-on-year, and the proportion of accounts holding positions for less than half a year has dropped significantly. This means that short- and medium-term speculative positions have dropped sharply, and more market participants choose to hold for the long term.
Rome was not built in a day, and the bull market will not end in a few days. No matter how the copycats clean up the market, as a weather vane of the market, as long as Bitcoin can stabilize the situation and maintain long-term fluctuations in the high range, with the approach of the interest rate cut node and the certainty of expectations, round-up or general rise is the same certain event.
From a macro perspective, the ETF data was not fully updated yesterday as the U.S. stock market was closed, but from the data of the first three days of this week, everything is moving in a relatively optimistic trend, with net outflow data getting smaller and smaller. With the possible announcement of the launch date of the Ethereum spot ETF at the end of the month, the sentiment will begin to ease next week. From a macro perspective, other news can only show a small cycle impact, and the negative news is coming to an end.
Finally, the pullback at night is also reasonable. The market is constantly tug-of-war at the relative bottom. After the trend bottom is finally determined, it will move to a new high. If it really goes down smoothly and then reverses, then what is waiting for us may be a new sinkhole. In any case, it is much less panic than two days ago, isn't it?
BTC: Bitcoin pulled up in the first half of the day, and then started to decline after the speech of Kashkari of the Federal Reserve in the evening. Both briefly fell below the low point of this round of rebound. The trend is too tug-of-war in the short term, and continue to pay attention to yesterday's point. The watershed of the small cycle trend is 65165 points. After the breakthrough in the morning, it pulled up a wave, and it was hit in the evening. The bottom strong support continues to pay attention to 63132 points. It still needs to see if there is a possibility of short-term needle. At present, there is no momentum for a break. The market short position needs to reverse completely, and the high position needs to be 67197 points on the daily line to stabilize. Anyway, the wide range of fluctuations brought by this wave of wash-outs during the day also shows that the adjustment that has lasted for more than three months is coming to an end. The market will not be achieved overnight. There may not be too good performance in the next week. Repair, adjust, and repair again.
ETH: Ethereum is slightly stronger than Bitcoin in terms of trend. There are indeed not many chips in CEX, reaching the lowest point in 2016. It is conceivable how big the layout and ambition of the black hand behind this is. It is basically determined that 3355 points is the short-term low point, the daily support is 3460 points, and the pressure level is 3650 points.
Shanzhai: I personally think that Bitcoin can be considered to be covered in batches during the continuous bottom testing cycle. In terms of sectors, Ethereum concept SSV will continue to be strong in the short term, and LDO and other Ethereum second layers are expected to have a relatively large explosion space in the next two months. In the AI sector, focus on the part held in the early stage, and gradually cover the position in equal amounts. In addition, after the market stabilized in the past two days, focus on the head sector of the Solana concept in the early stage. It has been out of heat for a while, and once the market turns around, it is easy to explode again.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #MegadropLista #美联储何时降息？ #meme板块关注热点 #BTC走势分析 $BTC
