Original author: Axel Bitblaze
Original translation: Alex Liu, Foresight News
Let’s talk about what you’re all most concerned about right now. At what price will ZRO hit the market, and how much will your ZRO airdrop allocation be worth? Here are my thoughts on LayerZero’s airdrop allocation, price prediction, and listing plans.
Airdrop Allocation
I agree with most of the criticism that the airdrop model was poorly executed. Many people worked hard for a whole year to get 200-300 tokens, and in my opinion, they (LayerZero) should put another 1-2% into the core allocation (the allocation you get for using the LayerZero base protocol, as opposed to the RFP allocation you get for using LayerZero applications) and things would be better. But regardless, our core allocation may still increase because not all sybils have been removed and these shares will be redistributed to people. Given the number of sybils that LayerZero has captured, the core allocation may increase significantly.
LayerZero CEO said that witches have not been completely removed and will recover this part of the token allocation
Price Prediction
First, in order to predict the price of ZRO when it launches, we need to find the following data: Expected FDV (Fully Released Value), Total Token Supply. Then, the price of ZRO when it launches can be calculated by: FDV / Total Supply.
Total Supply
Confirmed by LayerZero CEO Bryan, the total token supply is 1 billion.
LayerZero CEO confirms total token supply is 1 billion
FDV
How do I estimate FDV? My usual approach when estimating FDV at launch is to look at the FDV of recent projects with similar financing and competitors. To do this, I will consider what STRK and W look like when they launch.
In fact, the FDV at launch also depends heavily on how much money the project has raised and at what valuation it was raised at. In my ZK price prediction thread, I made the mistake of not taking into account its valuation at the time of the funding as it was not disclosed, and I summarized how it affected my calculations in a post.
So, why STRK and W? Predicting prices requires considering the FDV of recently launched projects, the amount of funding raised, and the valuation at the time of funding. The valuations of these two tokens at the time of funding are public, which is why I am comparing STRK and W to help us predict ZRO's FDV.
Comparison with recent projects:
STRK:
Raised: $282 million
Valuation: $8 billion
Online FDV: $28 billion
IN:
Raised: $225 million
Valuation: $2.5 billion
Online FDV: $17 billion
ZRO：
Raised: $263 million
Valuation: $3 billion
FDV Online: Let’s take a look
It can be clearly seen from the above that:
STRK's FDV is 3.5 times its valuation.
W's offering price is 6.5 times its valuation.
Considering how bad market conditions are, I think it's reasonable to expect ZRO to be valued at at least 2-3x the $3B valuation, which would imply a FDV of $6B-$9B.
Price? FDV / Total Supply. ZRO Total Supply: 1 B. So $ZRO:
$6B VAT = $6
$7B VAT = $7
$8B VAT = $8
$9B VAT = $9
my plan
I think LayerZero is here to stay. Unlike L1 and L2 chains that need to actively attract people to participate, LayerZero is more like an infrastructure project that almost all existing and upcoming projects will use as a cross-chain layer.
This means that even if users are not consciously using LayerZero technology, they will still be exposed to it because it is integrated into many projects. It is different from L1 and L2, where you have to convince people to actually use your chain. Hopefully that makes sense, haha.
My target FDV and target price:
$5 B FDV or less: I would buy more
I would consider taking partial profit around $8 B FDV
I will sell completely between $15B and $20B FDV
In terms of price:
$5 or less: Buy in
Take partial profit at $8
Sell completely between $15 and $20
