Will Bitcoin continue to plummet?

When is the best time to buy at the bottom?

Let's explain it in detail today.

Miner shutdown price indicator

This indicator is actually very easy to understand. In layman's terms, when the electricity cost of miners starting mining is higher than the price of the mined BTC, some miners with smaller risk resistance will seek to exit and stop losses. They will shut down mining machines in large quantities, because they will lose money (electricity bills) if they start the machines.

​ And when these miners exit, they often sell BTC in exchange for cash, and at the same time sell mining machines at a lower price, causing the price of BTC to fall further. This phenomenon can also be called miner surrender.

​ From the news about mining machines in the past few days, we can know why they are selling BTC to make up for their losses as soon as the price of BTC falls. This is because some old machines have no choice but to lose money when they start!

$66,000 is the managed shutdown price of the median mining machine (S19XP) in the United States, the world's largest BTC mining market, which can be regarded as the beginning of the global miner's clearance.

In this cycle, affected by the US BTC spot ETF, it broke through the high point of the previous cycle before the halving, setting a record high of $73,700. The market is generally optimistic that even if the income is halved, there will be no "miner killing" in this cycle.

But the market seems to better reflect the fairness of history. After 13 weeks of fluctuations between 60,000 and 70,000, the miner liquidation has begun: last week, miners sold about $32 million a day, higher than the output value of 450 BTC per day. On-chain data shows that the amount of coins held by miners last week did not increase but decreased by about 1,000.

If miners sell more, a short-term decline may occur. If it reaches $63,700, it will trigger a series of declines.

Now it has actually touched the bottom line of miners, and the trend of bottom-fishing has become a trend.

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