1. The altcoins are seriously divided, some of them have risen a lot, but the general rise has not come. The liquidity is not large enough to overflow for a general rise, and the bitcoin has not broken through the previous high to show a main upward wave, resulting in the inflow of funds from outside the circle not being large enough and not sustainable enough. From October last year to April this year, the issuance of stablecoins totaled about 33 billion US dollars, which stopped in April. Subsequently, the launch of major projects in April/May/June continuously drained the liquidity of the altcoins. Before April, the funds in the market were hyped up modularization, brc20, sol ecology, meme, AI, etc. along with emotional rotation.

2. High fdv and low circulation tokens have been criticized. The essence of the market choosing meme and local dogs for speculation. The situation of low circulation and high fdv is also chosen by the market itself, and this choice is being overturned. I experienced the ICO era when I just entered the circle. At that time, there was no lock-up period for primary and ICO. You could smash the market at will after going online. Many VCs of that generation relied on resources to get the quota of the project party who could draw big cakes and had a team background, and they could easily 10-100 times and be free directly. Later, the market was very disgusted with this phenomenon. The project party also prohibited VCs from smashing the market at will, and there were longer and longer lock-up periods, which is the low circulation and high fdv we see now. Later, this gameplay was taken to the extreme by sbf. In this round, due to the previous round of carving a boat to seek a sword, the market expected the arrival of the cottage season, and BTC began to go bullish. As soon as each project went online, it gave a very high secondary fdv valuation, resulting in the secondary space being squeezed dry, and instead preferring to hype meme. More importantly, after n years of iterative evolution, we have not seen many substantive and cool things appear in blockchain projects. Instead, we continue to see countless things that VCs have come up with that seem impressive but are actually nothing. Therefore, the valuation logic of copycats is being redefined, and how to define it in the future may require more K-lines in the market.

3. What do you think of the altcoin market in the future? I think the valuation logic of altcoins needs to be redefined. This decline is a very natural and good phenomenon. With high FDV and low circulation, it will fall to a reasonable and not-so-expensive range of FDV. Why does the "value coin" underperform the meme? In essence, it is still too expensive. In the short term, I think the market will shift to the real hard consensus (such as BTC) or hard value income (such as LDO, 13x P/E), and new coins or sub-new coins will experience a round of value reshaping (the decline is cheap), product iteration growth, and a period of bottoming out, washing and changing chips. Some stars will still appear in the form of differentiation. As for the general rise, it depends on whether BTC can reach a high enough level, and the market has enough pull/new product/FOMO to attract enough liquidity outside the circle. The market value of the top 100 meme coins is not small, and it is expected that they will still be used as a barometer of sentiment and the best speculative tool.

A reminder: if your copycat is trapped, if the market sees an oversold rebound in the short term, be sure to reduce your position or clear out your position and wait and see how the market develops. Unless you firmly believe in its value and market maker, there is no need to make yourself so uneasy and anxious.

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