-【Replay】-
Yesterday's strategy was perfect. Hehe.
-【Today's Market Analysis】-
Old Wine Trading Diary: Daily Interpretation 6.18
① Intraday ultra-short-term pressure: 65800
Break through 65800 and look at 66300. As long as this is done, the trend will be volatile upward.
② Intraday ultra-short-term support: 64800
Falling below 64800, the new low is around 64300, with a fluctuation of 200u. The last drop.
Summary: The ideas have gone from being empty to being more.
-【Digital Currency News】-
Why did the cryptocurrency market fall today??!
The cryptocurrency market took a beating today, with the total market capitalization falling by more than 4.30% to around $2.50 trillion on June 18. The plunge has left many investors scratching their heads, trying to understand the core catalyst behind this downturn, and whether a recovery is imminent.
The cryptocurrency market was hurt by the rate cut forecasts from Federal Reserve officials.
Today’s cryptocurrency market decline is part of a correction that began over the weekend, when Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari made a “reasonable forecast” of only one rate cut in 2024. We need to see more evidence to convince us that inflation is moving back down to 2%,” Kashkari said on CBS’ Face the Nation on June 16.
His comments contrast with expectations among bond traders in September and November for at least two rate cuts in 2024. The target rate probability of a September cut, for example, has fallen to 55% on June 18 from 66% at the weekend.
The reduction in rate cut expectations coincided with a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with the annualized yield on the benchmark 10-year bond (US10Y) up 14 basis points since the weekly open on June 17. Higher bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies, which is why the cryptocurrency market has fallen sharply this week, including today's losses.
Bitcoin ETF outflows continue.
Today’s cryptocurrency market decline was further influenced by the de-risking strategies adopted by Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) traders and investors.
It is worth noting that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings fell 3.65% to around $15.1 billion in the week ending June 14. The outflow trend continued this week, with the investment vehicle's net reserves at $145.9 million on June 17, bringing the ETF's net reserves to $14.956 billion.
Spot Bitcoin ETF cumulative inflows
The outflows coincided with a stronger dollar against a basket of major foreign currencies. A stronger dollar typically means investors have less risk appetite, which helps explain the acceleration of Bitcoin ETF outflows and the resulting anxiety in the cryptocurrency market.
Long-term liquidations hurt the interests of cryptocurrency market bulls.
The cryptocurrency market’s decline accelerated further as long liquidations outpaced short liquidations over the past 24 hours.
Long traders (people who bet on the cryptocurrency market to rise) experienced approximately $403 million worth of liquidations in the past 24 hours. In contrast, short traders experienced more than $61 million in liquidations during the same period.
When long positions are liquidated, traders who bet on rising prices are forced to sell their positions, usually at a loss. This increased selling pressure has caused cryptocurrency market valuations to move lower today.
In short, there is a lot of pressure from above, but there is not much room for you to fall from below.
Personal point of view, only for reference
