At 20:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, the monthly rate of US retail sales in May was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3%, as the decline in gasoline and car prices affected the income of gas stations and car dealers. The April data was revised down from 0% to -0.2%.
Bloomberg analyst Daniel Neligh noted that U.S. retail sales barely grew in May and were revised downward in previous months, suggesting that consumers are under greater financial pressure.
After the release of the retail sales data, spot gold rose by $10 in the short term, and the US dollar index fell by nearly 20 points in the short term, and then both gave up almost all the gains. In addition, the euro rose by 20 points against the US dollar and the pound rose by 20 points against the US dollar in the short term, and the US dollar fell by nearly 30 points against the yen in the short term. After the data was released, the inverted yield curve of 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds narrowed.
The most active silver futures contract on COMEX traded 644 lots in one minute from 20:30 to 20:31 Beijing time on June 18, with a total contract value of US$94 million.
CME's most active Euro/US dollar futures contract traded 4,400 lots in one minute from 20:30 to 20:31 Beijing time on June 18, with a total contract value of US$594 million.
The core retail sales monthly rate was -0.10%, lower than the expected 0.20%, and the same as the previous value after the downward revision. The retail sales control group excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services increased by 0.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of -0.50% after the downward revision.
Some market views point out that in recent months, retail sales have been distorted by the early Easter. Nevertheless, the trend of sales growth has slowed down as rising prices and interest rates force households to prioritize necessities and reduce discretionary spending. Banks are also tightening credit as low-income borrowers find it increasingly difficult to repay their loans. Although the labor market remains solid, it has become somewhat difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs quickly, and wage growth is also slowing down.
Five of the 13 categories tracked by the Commerce Department posted declines as gasoline prices fell during the month and furniture stores offered discounts for Memorial Day. Economists expect U.S. consumers to be more cautious and spend less in the future given persistent inflation, a cooling job market and emerging signs of financial stress.
Spending at restaurants and bars, the only services category in the report, fell 0.4% from the previous month, the biggest drop since January. Restaurant sales tend to rise when the economy is healthy and Americans feel secure in their jobs. They fall during tough economic times.
Sales rose at internet retailers, clothing stores and big-box electronics stores, suggesting U.S. consumers still have some money left over to pay for so-called discretionary items.
“With growth in services consumption slowing in recent months and consumer confidence plunging again, perhaps the household sector is not as immune to rising interest rates as we had come to believe,” Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.
The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data
