According to a recent X thread by analyst Blockchainedbb, the current state of Bitcoin (BTC) and other coins should not be a cause for panic among swing traders, despite the heavy bleeding in altcoins. The analyst provides a detailed update on BTC using various technical analysis tools and on-chain data.
Using Elliot Wave Theory, Blockchainedbb notes that BTC is still trading above the golden pocket, indicating that legs 4-5 of the wave pattern have not been invalidated yet. This suggests that there is still potential for an upside move in the near future.
Volume Theory and On-Chain Data Provide Insights
Blockchainedbb also analyzes BTC’s price action using Volume Theory, noting that the cryptocurrency is holding above the Range Point of Control (POC). Additionally, there are no signs of Climactic Volume Down (CVD) or price bearish divergence, which further supports the bullish case.
On-chain data reveals that exchange reserves are decreasing, and miners are not selling their BTC holdings. However, the Whale Ratio, which measures the ratio of top 10 inflows to total exchange inflows, has been trending upward since March 24. In the past, similar trends have preceded BTC price dumps, but the current market has not followed this pattern, possibly due to institutional demand.
Upcoming Events and Potential Catalysts
The analyst highlights several upcoming events that could impact the BTC market, including:
Retail sales data release
Expiration of Roaring Kitty’s options on June 21st, which could influence meme stock and meme coin narratives
Full moon on June 21st, historically associated with market dumps and bottoms
Gann Market reversal day on June 22nd
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According to options data, the current pump in BTC price cannot be trusted for a swing long position until the cryptocurrency crosses the $68.5K level. The max pain point is currently at $67K, and Blockchainedbb’s Discord group has been focusing on scalping rather than swing trading until BTC breaks out of the $68.5K resistance.
BTC Dominance and Historical Trends
The analyst also discusses BTC dominance (BTC.D), which has yet to break out of its current resistance level. A rejection at this level could lead to a bounce in altcoin prices.
Blockchainedbb emphasizes the importance of June 22nd, a major Gann reversal date that has historically marked the top or bottom of the quarter for BTC. In recent years, June 22nd has been the absolute yearly bottom for BTC.
In summary, while altcoins are experiencing price drop, Blockchainedbb believes that BTC has not yet flipped bearish on the daily timeframe. As long as BTC remains above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the analyst maintains a bullish outlook. A breakout above $68.5K could signal a potential long opportunity, with a target of $74K.
Read more: Why Is the Crypto Market Down Today?
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