Compiled by | Wu Talks about Blockchain
Recently, Coin Bureau invited Arthur Hayes and Raoul Pal to have an in-depth conversation to discuss market risks, aggressive investment strategies, and annual forecasts. Arthur emphasized the strategy of holding Bitcoin and altcoins, and shared their family office's successful experience in the Ethena project and the liquid pledge token ecosystem. Raoul shared his investment in Solana and high-end NFTs, pointing out that not operating is the best strategy this year. In addition, they explored the cultural value and market potential of memecoins, predicted that Dogecoin might get an ETF, and discussed the impact of the US election on the market and potential risks in the future.
Note: In this article, Arthur makes many seemingly subjective judgments, which do not represent Wu’s opinions. Readers are advised to invest with caution and strictly abide by the laws and regulations of their location.
podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cX1Huf89PE
Investment strategy sharing: Hold on firmly, don’t be afraid; doing nothing is the best thing to do
Arthur: My investment strategy is to hold, don't sell, don't get scared, don't use too much leverage. It's simple, and everyone knows what they should do, but we don't usually do it because YOLO (one time out) is fun. But at the end of the day, it's simple. If you believe that central banks and governments are in debt, will continue to be in debt, will continue to print money, will continue to give out benefits in exchange for votes or popular support, then cryptocurrencies are the answer. Obviously, Bitcoin is the elder statesman, and I own a lot of Bitcoin. Then, when you get into the risk curve and want to increase potential returns, you get into the altcoin space.
Obviously, the standout project for our family office is Ethena, where their team has done a great job creating a synthetic dollar with the intent to replace Tether and USDC. Ethena now has about $3 billion in circulation, which makes it the fourth largest dollar stablecoin. I think that's the best thing we've done this cycle, and I think we're just at the beginning of the impact that Ethena has on the ecosystem. And then the second one is probably Ethereum and the entire liquid staking token ecosystem. Obviously, EigenLayer will be live later this year. We have a lot of other investments in that vertical. So I would say those are the two standout highlights of this cycle in our portfolio.
Raoul: The best thing to do is to do nothing. You know, 90% of my position is in Solana, which is the best choice in the cycle so far. The only meaningful move this year was when Solana went from $150 to $200, I sold some of the highs and started buying high-end NFTs. I bought almost all the Beeple works I could buy, and then I bought all the X Copy works I could afford to build a long-term portfolio. The works were very cheap at the time, and my view is that the market value of this space will go from $2.5-3 trillion now to $10-15 trillion by the end of this cycle, and $100 trillion by 2032. From now on, this will be a wealth accumulation of $97 trillion, which is the fastest wealth accumulation in history. If I am completely wrong, it is also a wealth accumulation of $50 trillion. This is equivalent to the entire historical market value of the S&P 500. So there will be a lot of wealth generated in this space and circulating in this space.
People will buy high-end real estate, but a lot of people won't leave the space, and that wealth will circulate in the space, whether it's venture capital, or opportunities to build application layers. But really, people will go after those token assets. So I've been buying as many token assets as I can because I think this is the last chance to buy these things at these prices.
What is the Banana Range? What is the Impact on Cryptocurrency?
Raoul: We are entering the “banana zone”. The “banana zone” is a concept that Arthur and I talk about a lot. It is a very cyclical phase, when liquidity comes into the market and central banks need to refinance all the debt, to please the people with candy. At this time, cryptocurrencies usually go vertical. This is a debt refinancing cycle driven by macroeconomic forces, which affects all asset prices, but cryptocurrencies are particularly outstanding. So the easiest way is to not screw up. Keep a core portfolio with the majority of assets in the major cryptocurrencies. If you can do it right in other assets, you can make a lot of money in that 10–20% of the portfolio, which is higher risk but has greater rewards.
Looking back at the classic banana range of the last cycle, Solana, Avalanche, Luna, and Matic all performed well during this phase. In a year, these four tokens have performed amazingly. We will see a repeat of this. Who will it be? I don’t know yet. But that’s part of the game of the banana range, and that’s part of the fun of it, because you can take risks and feel like you’ve really seized an opportunity, but in fact, most of the time you are just sitting back and watching.
Why are memecoins so popular? What is their value?
Arthur: I think memecoins are here to stay and will get even crazier as more money is printed. I am often in Singapore, which is a small place with a very homogenous society. Every time I walk in the shopping district on Orchard Road, I always see local Singaporeans queuing up at Chanel, LV, Gucci, etc., which are all mainstream big brands. They are always queuing up, waiting to go in and buy what they want, which costs up to several thousand Singapore dollars, and they do it frequently. So if people are willing to queue up to buy leather goods with the LV logo, they will definitely sit in front of their computers and trade any hot memecoin.
Because you don't need to understand cryptocurrencies, just like you don't need to understand fashion. People like it, I like it, it's very human. So I think memecoins are here to stay, and for people who are just getting into crypto, it's the easiest thing to understand. Oh, this is a cool picture, this is a funny joke that I understand, everyone is in on this joke, I can make money from the spread of this joke, okay, I'll buy this memecoin.
I don’t need to understand all the underlying technology like blockchain and AI and cryptography. I just need to know if this is a cool cultural trend and I’m already doing the same thing in real life when I go to buy these expensive brand products and I’m standing in line for hours to put some logo on my chest. So, I think looking at human behavior, why are the richest people in the world, if you look at the rich list, a lot of people own luxury brands. Memecoins are the luxury brand of cryptocurrency. It’s easy to participate because you don’t have to wait in line. You just buy it online, assuming Solana’s system works. Anyway, you can buy these things quickly on a decentralized exchange. So, I think memecoins are the luxury brand of cryptocurrency and that’s not going to change.
Raoul: I had coffee with Miao from Jupiter yesterday, and we talked about this. The interesting thing about memecoins is that they have either zero or very little utility. Bonk has some utility, Shiba Inu has some utility, but their real cultural value is the attention they get. Attention is upstream of everything else, and it's very easy to understand. You don't need to put a value on them, you just need to know if they attract attention, if that attention is lasting, and if owning them gives me a certain feeling or status. It's the same with LVMH's Louis Vuitton handbags, it's the same with fine wines, it's the same with memes you share on the internet. These are concentrated attention.
Share this year's market operation strategies and future market forecasts
Raoul: I basically don't do much trading, I just don't have the time. If you notice a lot of aggressive trading is basically based on attention, and I don't have enough attention to allocate because I'm too busy. So I keep a relatively simple strategy. I have Bonk and Doge, because I still think Elon will do something with Doge, that's it. I watch the space, everyone reads Ansem's tweets, trying to figure out what's going on, but I just don't have enough attention to focus on these things. So you actually need to have a certain amount of knowledge to trade these.
Arthur: My laid-back life consists of running around the courts playing tennis or skiing on the slopes. So I don’t pay attention to which dogecoin is the hottest. I also own some Dogecoin, and I think Dogecoin will get an ETF before the end of this cycle because it is the earliest memecoin and it is traded on Robinhood. For institutions that are considering getting into cryptocurrencies, they will apply ETFs to anything that has a high market cap and has been around for a long time, and Dogecoin is one of the earliest memecoins.
What are the chances of Dogecoin getting an ETF?
Raoul: I talked to Yan from VanEck last week and I told him, you have to file for a Dogecoin ETF. He said he just wanted to make sure he didn't go to jail first. I said, you're fine, Dogecoin has been around for a long time, and it's been outperforming Bitcoin every cycle, which is amazing. So, I'm pushing this behind the scenes, but I haven't convinced Yan yet. But I'll keep trying. One of Hunter Horsley or Yan will cross the line. It's unlikely to be BlackRock, but we'll try.
Which memecoins are likely to succeed?
Arthur: In terms of memecoin narratives, I think a lot of memecoins are too specific. Like some political memecoins, they might be interesting for a while, but they don't have lasting cultural value. When you talk about a meme like dogwifhat, it doesn't matter if you're Korean, Chinese, American, or Argentinian. But if you talk about American politics, first of all, you're probably going to offend half of Americans, and secondly, 95% of the rest of the world will think it's none of their business. So I think a lot of memes are too specific and don't resonate globally. So if someone can create a global memecoin that's not offensive, that's inclusive and interesting, that will be successful.
Raoul: It’s actually a good place to test the narrative, in Singapore, because that’s a culturally diverse Asian audience, Asians love gambling, they love memecoins. They are big buyers of Dogecoin and other dogecoins. You just have to see if the narrative resonates here, they don’t care about Trump and American politics, they just want something that can cross cultural boundaries.
How might the US election impact the markets? How can you protect yourself and take advantage of market volatility?
Raoul: My opinion is that it doesn't really have much of an impact.
Arthur: Actually, all candidates are the same. There is a group of stakeholders behind them supporting them. Money will continue to be printed after the election, so whether it is large-cap technology stocks or cryptocurrencies, they will continue to perform well. There may be some fluctuations, especially with the issue of Trump's verdict, but at the end of the day, no matter who is elected, they will print money. So, I don't think it will have much impact. They will all vote for the war budget. The US economy exists for war. So, it's all the same, the difference is which candidate you like. I don't care what their slogans are, I just know that they will all print money, so any investment strategy that works now will continue to work after the election.
Raoul: If there is any volatility, it could be because one of the candidates drops out, or there is violence. But the end result is printing money. So, the US election year and the year after are usually very positive for risk assets because everyone is buying votes.
Arthur: The Fed is not independent now. That's a false proposition. In fact, the Fed is dominated by the Treasury Department, and Janet Yellen is the most powerful person. She can do whatever she wants, and Jerome Powell is actually powerless. The Treasury Department is the dominant force, and they have been operating behind the scenes. If you look at some of the Fed research papers, such as the recent one from the Atlanta Fed on central bank swaps, they have basically been supporting international dollar borrowers, and the article details every time the Fed has printed money and given it to foreign institutions.
Raoul: If you look at Arthur's point, there is a dollar shortage in the world. We lost some banks in the United States, we lost the giant Swiss banks, and the dollar shortage is getting worse. Yellen went to China twice, and her mission was to sell bonds. China is willing to buy bonds, but they don't have dollars, so we have to find a solution. There will be some arrangement at the G20 or G7 meetings to ensure that there are enough dollars flowing in the global system. So, since 2008, there has been no independence. In fact, there is not much independence between central banks. The Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance stopped being independent in the 90s.
What are the main risks of the current financial system and cryptocurrency system?
Raoul: For me, there is one risk that is not so obvious. I think the biggest risk is that there will be a ridiculous bubble in the next three years. There could be a bubble similar to 1999, which would cause the market to overinflate and then have a big correction. That is the biggest risk.
Arthur: The biggest risk in the last cycle was that centralized counterparties had credit problems. Usually, the problem in the crypto space is that we like decentralization, but in order to make money, we do centralized things, and as a result, these centralized things eventually explode because their business models are incompatible with decentralized assets. This happens again and again. So, how might this cycle evolve? What are the centralized entities that we trust now and drive the market? ETFs, fund managers, what do they do? Custody their assets, probably just at Coinbase and a few banks. If one of these regulations passes, we will have hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars in crypto assets custodied in less than 20 companies, which may be custodied in less than 5 institutions.
If you’ve ever worked in a bank, you know that the people who make the least money have the most important jobs, they’re in the back office doing things like forex reconciliation or making sure stocks settle. If you think about crypto custody in a traditional financial institution, they want to get into that now because they see Coinbase making a lot of money from BlackRock and others, and regulations force you to have custody with a third party. Then they might force you to have custody with a large institution like Bank of Boston Mellon. So now you have a large amount of crypto in these companies, and the person handling that job might be a guy who makes $50,000 to $60,000 a year, who is overworked, has no respect, and knows nothing about cybersecurity. It’s not their money. If I were going to hack crypto, I’d hack these U.S. custodian banks because their cybersecurity is an afterthought. They have no idea what they’re doing because they’ve never had custody of this kind of asset. If they lose these assets, they can’t ask the Treasury or the Fed for a bailout. In crypto, there’s no one who can create Bitcoin or Ethereum to compensate you for your losses. So if I think about the risk, and it’s a 2-3 year risk, I’d say a major crypto custodian gets hacked and loses $50 billion to $100 billion in crypto, and that would be the end of the cycle.
Raoul: And it’s unlikely to be Coinbase, because they know the rules of the game. But other new entrants, they don’t understand the complexity of this type of asset. Another risk for me is the derivatives market, the entire cryptocurrency options market is almost concentrated on one derivatives exchange. This is risky because a large number of people use this single centralized platform to trade options. If this exchange has problems, we may have big problems. We need more options exchanges, platforms to spread the risk, because now the use of derivatives is increasing, and we don’t know who will end up taking the risk when the market explodes.
Arthur: One interesting thing about options is that zero-day options are very popular. Oddly enough, CBOE resisted launching zero-day options for years because they couldn’t do real-time margin. When you sell a zero-day option, you essentially take on unlimited upside risk. CBOE didn’t launch these products despite strong clamor from brokers to launch them because they were very lucrative for retail clients. Imagine if they launched zero-day options on Bitcoin or Ethereum, and Bitcoin surged 50% in one day, all the market makers would be forced to do intraday margin calls, and CBOE would be unprepared for that. This could cause a market crash.
Raoul: These are not predictions, just to make everyone clear. These are just potential risk points we see, not to say that such and such company will definitely go bankrupt. At the end of each cycle, someone will explode, but we don’t know who it will be. If you leverage an asset with a volatility of 70%, you will explode, this is 100% guaranteed.
What are some undiscovered investment opportunities? Which projects are you optimistic about?
Raoul: I try not to do anything. One thing I'm always watching is the exchange rate of Bitcoin to Ethereum. If this rate starts to go higher, it could mean the start of the altcoin season. So my focus is on the "banana range" because that's where you can make a lot of money. So even if you do nothing, you don't want to lose your coins in this range.
Arthur: I think Aptos could become the second largest Layer 1 and surpass Solana in this cycle. This prediction is a 1 to 3 year time frame and I will provide more details in September this year.
Raoul: I have a different view, I work at the Sui Foundation and I think the Move protocol is a big narrative. We can discuss this in the future. I am also very interested in this upcoming round of major Layer 1 projects because these types of trades are very profitable in the "banana range". These types of trades have created huge gains in the last cycle and in the previous cycle, so this time will be the same. Most of these tokens have rebounded from their lows. They were all launched at the wrong time in the last cycle, but now the market environment is very favorable for some of them. I am not sure which projects are specific, but you can think of Celestia, Monad, etc.
