Where should BTC go? 🤔

From the data, it was found that $BTC showed the release of short kinetic energy. Will the market fall again? Or is it possible that it’s starting to bottom out? 👇🏻 We can examine it through data changes...

At present, the short momentum of $BTC continues to increase and has changed from a squeeze state to a release (de-orange). There have been two similar situations this year, namely 2024/01 #BTCETF_COIN profit selling pressure fell and 2024/04 data expectations adjusted to fall part.

In January, it hit the swing low two days later (1/20~22) and started a new upward trend. In April, it hit the short-term low one day later (4/16~17), started to rebound, and then continued to fall.

It can be found that after the two detangerizations, they both began to rebound in a short period of time. As for whether there will be a swing low this week or will continue to decline after rebounding? Other data can be used to make a comprehensive judgment. Which situation is more preferred at the moment?

At present, BTC has not reversed the short-term downward trend. We try to look at other data in the three stages from this perspective and matching momentum:

1️⃣ Chip situation: currently more similar to January

-Currently, BTC short positions are concentrated. Although there are signs of shrinkage, there is no obvious increase or decrease;

- In April, short chips were concentrated, and there were many instances of significant decreases and increases in chips, but each time the price reached a new low, it was accompanied by a new low in chips;

- The short-selling chips were concentrated in January. During the process, the chips gradually and steadily shrank without many major changes.

2️⃣The trend of giant whales: high altitude and low compensation, more similar to April

-At present, the increase and decrease of OI of Giant Whale are about the same. There are signs of closing short orders at low points, and after rebounding, a small amount of short orders are filled;

- Short positions were reduced at the low point of Giant Whale OI in April, and there was only a large increase in OI at the lowest point;

- In January, Whale OI increased its position at the low point, showing obvious signs of bargain hunting.

3️⃣ Bull and Short Power: Currently more similar to January

-There are currently a large number of long market price orders, and it is suspected that retail investors continue to go long and buy the bottom;

-In April, there was a sustained large number of market price bullish orders that rebounded before a downward sell-off;

-In January, there was a sustained large number of market price bullish orders that rebounded before falling.

💡To summarize the above, from the data point of view, the market outlook is currently more inclined to go out of the market similar to January. There is a chance that it will fall again in the short term and then start to rebound. Keep paying attention!

Data source:blave.org #BinanceTournament