Recently, Kashkari of the Federal Reserve said that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut interest rates before the end of this year. Kashkari pointed out that the Fed is currently in a strong position and can take a wait-and-see attitude and gradually observe the changes in economic data. He emphasized that the job market performed better than expected, but also mentioned that the labor market may cool down further, and hoped that the cooling rate would remain moderate.
According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is as high as 87.6%, while the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is only 12.4%. This market expectation reflects that the current interest rate level is close to its peak.
Kashkari's remarks indicate that the Fed is cautiously optimistic about the current economic situation. On the one hand, the strong performance of the job market provides support for economic growth; on the other hand, the potential cooling of the labor market also requires the Fed to pay close attention to prevent the resurgence of inflationary pressure. However, market uncertainty still exists. Although the current interest rate level is high, future economic data, especially inflation and employment data, will have an important impact on the Fed's decision-making. If inflationary pressure weakens and economic growth slows, the Fed may consider cutting interest rates in a timely manner to stimulate economic activity. In short, Kashkari's remarks and market expectations indicate that although the Fed is currently taking a wait-and-see attitude, future monetary policy adjustments still need to be determined based on changes in economic data.
El Salvador recently submitted a significant banking law reform that proposes to include Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in its investment banking industry. If passed, the proposal will allow private investors to form banks to provide Bitcoin and stablecoin services to sophisticated investors.
First, it is worth noting that the reform sets a high threshold. Newly established banks need to have at least $50 million in capital and serve mainly "professional investors", that is, individuals with at least $250,000 in assets and who pass relevant knowledge tests, or have $500,000 in assets. This high threshold is obviously intended to ensure market stability and the professional quality of investors.
Secondly, the bill explicitly supports stablecoin-based instruments, which means that El Salvador is not only promoting Bitcoin, but also opening the door to the use of other cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins, as a cryptocurrency with less price volatility, will attract investors who are more sensitive to market volatility. El Salvador's reform has taken an important step in promoting financial innovation, but its long-term effects still need further observation. Only under the premise of ensuring financial stability and investor rights can the widespread use of cryptocurrencies be truly realized.
Next week, a series of cryptocurrency token unlocking events will be held, including ID, PIXEL, APE and other tokens. The specific unlocking details are as follows:
ApeCoin (APE): About 15.6 million tokens were unlocked at 8:00 a.m. Beijing time on June 17, accounting for 2.48% of the current circulation, with a value of approximately US$15.8 million.
Nym (NYM): About 2.96 million tokens were unlocked at 8:00 am Beijing time on June 17, accounting for 0.37% of the current circulation, worth about US$400,000.
Manta Network (MANTA): Approximately 6.67 million tokens were unlocked at 5:30 p.m. Beijing time on June 18, accounting for 2.05% of the current circulation, worth approximately US$8.3 million.
Pixels (PIXEL): Approximately 54.38 million tokens were unlocked at 6:00 p.m. Beijing time on June 19, accounting for 7.05% of the current circulation, worth approximately US$20 million.
SPACE ID (ID): Approximately 78.49 million tokens were unlocked at 8:00 a.m. Beijing time on June 22, accounting for 18.23% of the current circulation, with a value of approximately US$44 million.
Overall, the unlocking event next week will exert certain pressure on the short-term prices of various tokens. In particular, the unlocking volume of ID and PIXEL tokens is large, which will lead to increased selling pressure in the market and intensified price fluctuations.
BTC: The weekly level closed with a small negative line, indicating that the market's selling pressure is slightly strong. The daily MACD is currently above the zero axis, and the energy of the short side has weakened. There may be a small rebound in the short term, and the rebound strength may be limited. The short-term strength and weakness watershed is near the strong support position of the 120-day moving average at 65,000. The large level is still in a high-level shock adjustment, so be more patient.
ETH: Linked to Bitcoin trend.
JASMY: Yesterday, a large positive line with a certain amount of energy was closed, and it is now above the 10-day moving average. There has been capital intervention recently. If the 5-day moving average is not broken in the short term, the market is expected to continue to strengthen.
ONDO: It closed with a small negative line yesterday and is now below the 30-day moving average. There may be a further correction in the short term, and it may fall back to the 60-day moving average of $1 or stop falling and stabilize.
CVX: It has now deviated from the 5-day moving average, and the large volume has pulled up a big positive line. In the short term, it is most stable to gradually reduce positions to profit from rallies.
Today's hot topics: Meme; Grayscale.
The Fear Index is currently at 71 (Greed) #美联储连续第七次维持基准利率不变 #ZKsync空投争议 #币安合约锦标赛
