It is predicted that the TON ecosystem will see the following five major trends:
1. Black hole effect: Telegram will continue to devour the living space of upstream, midstream and downstream companies in the crypto ecosystem
WeChat started out as an instant messaging tool, but quickly expanded into a comprehensive platform that integrates social networking, payment, service subscriptions, mini-programs, and other functions. The combination of Telegram and TON is replicating this path.
- Upstream (Infrastructure and Development Platform): TON provides developers with powerful infrastructure, as well as development tools and software development kits (SDKs) to build and deploy decentralized applications (DApps), which will directly absorb a lot of L1/L2 development resources, making their already deserted development ecosystem even more deserted;
- Midstream (application layer and services): Whether it is customized stablecoin solutions, micropayment systems, and more services that rely on small and fast transactions, or through the construction of official cross-chain bridges, TON will be able to seamlessly access mainstream crypto assets (such as BTC, ETH, and BNB) to provide users with a one-stop asset management and trading platform. Telegram users can easily purchase cryptocurrencies and other financial products without switching to other applications or platforms.
- Downstream (user adoption and market expansion): Telegram's broad user base provides TON with a direct market access point, and this built-in user base is an advantage that other blockchain platforms cannot match. By establishing relationships with partners in different industries, such as financial institutions, media companies, and retailers, Telegram can integrate encryption technology into a wider range of economic activities.
After the explosion of WeChat Mini Programs, it is almost impossible to find applications without Mini Programs. In many cases, even apps do not need to be developed. In the future, all encrypted applications may use Telegram Mini Programs as the most important entrance to serve users.
Will Binance's flash exchange portal and OKX's contract copy be simplified through Telegram?
2. No regulatory barriers + the fastest public chain + user flywheel effect: TON ecosystem may have no ceiling
TON can provide services globally and without barriers, without being restricted by financial regulation in a specific country or region. Moreover, as more and more users join the TON ecosystem, its value and appeal will grow exponentially.
He who controls the traffic controls the world. Telegram's traffic monetization will be very, very objective.
As a decentralized market on the TON network, Fragment has facilitated the sale of more than $350 million in custom usernames and virtual phone numbers. In the near future, the 730 billion Telegram stickers that have been sent can be converted into NFTs, which will be bought and sold through the TON blockchain. This is definitely a huge blue ocean market.
By the same logic, mini apps on TON will soon give birth to a batch of Web3 projects with monthly revenues exceeding 10 million US dollars. After all, for a crypto project with 10 million DAU, it is not difficult to receive 1 US dollar from each user every month.
3. The demonstration effect of the approval of BTC/ETH spot ETFs, global financial giants may join the TON ecosystem on a large scale
As the TON platform matures and its cross-chain functions are realized, it may attract more traditional financial institutions to explore blockchain technology. For example, large banks and payment companies may consider migrating some of their services to TON or cooperating with TON to take advantage of its low cost and high efficiency to attract a new generation of financial service consumers.
If JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, PayPal, HSBC, and others announce cooperation with TON, will it soon be possible to develop loans, insurance products, investment products based on the TON blockchain, or even create stablecoins pegged to specific assets?
4. Redefine the investment logic of the primary market: tokens become a non-essential option for TON ecological encryption projects
As the TON ecosystem technology matures, the tools and services provided by the TON ecosystem will encourage developers to build solutions that truly address market needs without having to rely on token economics as the main attraction.
Projects may no longer need tokens to incentivize network participation or guarantee network security, but can rely on more mature technologies and business models; investors are increasingly paying attention to the long-term sustainability and practical application potential of projects, rather than just short-term token speculation. Moreover, projects that choose not to issue tokens may find it easier to adapt to the regulatory environment and avoid potential legal risks.
In the future, the investment analysis of TON ecosystem encryption projects will be more similar to Internet projects, and will depend on real data such as DAU/7-day retention/ARPU, etc.
Investment institutions also prefer equity (to enjoy dividend income) or equity + token warrants, and will no longer focus on details such as token unlocking, release, and allocation as important indicators for judging whether to invest in a project (in the current Web3 primary market, if a project is not listed or unlocked within the next year, it is estimated that 90% of institutions may not consider investing).
