Exchange Whales Are Growing Rapidly

This ratio of the top 10 inflows to the total inflows of the exchange. High values indicate whales are using the exchanges in large amount.

Interestingly, this trend has been growing rapidly since Mar 24th, when the Bitcoin price broke the previous all-time high.

What happened in the past when the ratio increased?

Almost without exception, when the ratio increased, the price fell. Interestingly, in the last three months, when the ratio has increased rapidly, the price has not fallen significantly, nor has it crashed. My guess is that this hasn't happened because of the huge demand for spot ETFs.

The question is the direction of the price going forward, and with the exception of 2022, when the ratio increased in a bear market, price plunges occurred in 2018, 2019, and 2021 when the percentage peaked and declined.

So I don't think we're going to see a price crash based on historical patterns right now. But as the ratio peaks and declines, the likelihood of a crash will increase and then we'll need to rebalance accordingly.

Written by SignalQuant