The main reason for the market decline this time was also due to several positive data, which led to a temporary gap in the market's expectations of a Fed rate cut.
Powell revealed in his last press conference that "the Fed will consider lowering interest rates if the unemployment rate reaches 4%, but in fact it has not exceeded 4% for nearly a year in a row, and the latest data is 4%, which is not significantly higher than expectations. The Fed has not focused on lowering interest rates in the current environment.
In addition, the Democratic Party has also expressed its hope to urge the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible, and this news also revealed that in the short term, the Federal Reserve is not very enthusiastic about cutting interest rates.
When will interest rates be cut?
Currently, all players in the circle are paying attention to the issue of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. The interest rate cut means that economic development is moving in a good direction.
After the data was released last week, the market speculation about a rate cut suddenly died down, because the data was all stable and there were no major adjustments or optimism.
Then people will pay more attention to when the interest rate will be cut.
Currently, the terminal interest rate shows data on September 18. As of now, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 48.3%, which is higher than the probability of 525-550 for no interest rate cut. This is the most important turning point at present.
So regarding the issue of interest rate cuts, I think the probability of a rate cut in September is the highest.
Will June be a bloody battle?
It is said that May is the worst, June is the worst, and July is the best. The market in June is relatively difficult to trade. People are joking that the current market is more difficult to trade than when Luna collapsed and FTX went bankrupt.
The market volatility in June may be very large. In the futures market, the main force options market is very bullish. The current main option position is on the 628 exercise date, and its biggest pain point is US$55,000.
The nominal amount of the option positions on June 28 was US$6.564 billion, and the number of call options was 65,800, worth US$4.454 billion.
It accounts for 67% of the total nominal amount, indicating that the market is strongly bullish about late June. Although the data may show some hawkish views and remarks, the current funding market is optimistic.
The trading in June will be very bloody. This is a good opportunity for those who like to play short-term trading. At the same time, it is accompanied by great risks, so those who like short-term operations must set stop-profit and stop-loss.
As for the long term, if you miss out on the low-priced chips, you really miss out.
Bitcoin is 50,000 USD, Ethereum is 3,000 USD, are you still dreaming of buying at the bottom when the price drops? Don't wait any longer, if you miss it, you miss it. Many people are still waiting for a big drop in Bitcoin and Ethereum, hoping to buy at a low price. However, the opportunity for a big drop in 2022-2023 has been missed, and now is the time to cherish the present.
Don't be impatient if there is no trend on the market, because the changes in the market are always unexpected. If you keep waiting for a big drop, you may miss a better investment opportunity. We should look further ahead and see the development trend of the entire cryptocurrency market. Although the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have fluctuated, the potential of the entire market is huge.
Now, many coins with high value potential have begun to explode. If you can seize the opportunity and make a layout to change positions, the future returns will be very considerable. Of course, you also need to be cautious when investing in cryptocurrencies. You need to understand the background, technology, team, etc. of the project to make wise investment decisions. Don't fantasize about buying at the bottom of a big drop. Opportunities are always reserved for those who are prepared. Start paying attention to market trends now and actively make layouts to change positions to get better returns in the future cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin monthly chart shows that the bull market is very obvious. Currently, the monthly chart has only crossed a few lines. It is normal to consolidate near the new high, wash out the profit-taking, and provide support for the next wave of rise. If the callback has a bottom, 60,000 is already the limit, and it may not reach it. You don’t get on the bus at 30,000, you can’t afford 40,000, and 50,000. Now you may not even get 60,000.
The siphon effect of Bitcoin is still there, and the hot spots of altcoins are still there, but they are delayed in time as the cycle changes. Especially now that there are so many leeks and so many currencies, the main players are also waiting through the wash to take advantage of the momentum. (The indicators of altcoins against Bitcoin are currently at the bottom, pointing to the eve of an outbreak)
What we need to do now is to adjust our mindset: many people are now doubting that the bull market is about to end, because they are being tortured by the market and are going crazy. The more pessimistic voices there are, the healthier the main force here is. With so many positive factors to support it in the future, the second half of the bull market is bound to come!
At present, it is a typical bull market, with a period of rise and a period of sideways, especially for copycats, which take three steps forward and three steps back in the bull market, and then run six steps. The time for copycats to explode is actually very short. The six steps are in the last 1 to 2 months of the bull market, and then all the battles are over. The logic is very clear and the goal is very clear. Making money depends on luck, and holding on depends on yourself.
