The following are the research reports of several futures companies exclusively compiled by Jinshi Futures APP, for reference only

Iron Ore

Trading logic: The arrival volume increased month-on-month, reaching a new high during the same period; finished product and billet inventories accumulated; the Fed's interest rate cut expectations declined; the inventory side remained high, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased month-on-month; the finished product market entered the off-season, and terminal demand declined

Risk factors: Steel mills are still in the process of resuming production, and the average daily molten iron output has rebounded; iron ore spot transaction data is rising

Focus: Whether the daily average hot metal output can be stabilized at more than 2.35 million tons or rebound; weekly iron ore arrival volume, shipping volume, port inventory, downstream demand changes; the substantial impact of the crude steel reduction policy, etc.

Soybean meal

Trading logic: USDA monthly report raises the estimate of US soybean end-of-period inventory; oil mill operating rate gradually recovers; domestic imported soybeans have arrived at the port recently; US soybean quality rate is high

Risk factors: Weather forecasts show that temperatures in the Midwest of the United States will rise, prompting traders to increase risk premiums in the soybean market; Conab lowered its forecast for Brazilian soybean production; U.S. soybean export sales were active, with sales to China hitting a seven-week high that week

Focus events: Weather changes in U.S. soybean producing areas; domestic soybean arrival volume, soybean crushing volume, crushing machine operating rate; domestic soybean meal inventory; U.S. soybean export sales, etc.

Shanghai Silver

Trading logic: The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting significantly lowered its expectations for the number of interest rate cuts this year, from three to one in the previous dot plot; the People's Bank of China stopped buying gold in May

Risk factors: US CPI declines, PPI data falls short of market expectations, and economic data is generally weak; global geopolitics has not shown any clear signs of easing

Focus on events: When will the Fed's expected rate cut come into effect? ​​Geopolitical conflicts; Changes in domestic silver inventories, etc.

Manganese Silicon

Trading logic: Element 25 may restart manganese ore production; the current profits of silicon-manganese companies are still considerable, and the operating rate of manganese-silicon companies has increased significantly this week;

Risk factors: Due to the damage caused by the tropical cyclone, the transportation of manganese ore cannot be restored in the short term at the Groot Erant mine; the price of the three steel biddings has risen successively, and the manufacturers are willing to maintain the price; the output of hot metal has rebounded beyond expectations, and the willingness of steel mills to reduce production has decreased

Focus on events: Tracking Element 25's resumption of production plan; news on Australian mine shipments; steel mill bidding trends; domestic silicomanganese enterprise operating rates, output changes, etc.

Freight Index

Trading logic: Maersk continued to release the July European route price increase announcement on June 13, and the freight rates from Asia to Europe will be raised again to 5000/9000 on July 1; the actual capacity in July has decreased compared with June; global ports are congested; the current market is still in the peak season

Risk factors: The EU intends to impose temporary tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, which will have an impact on China's electric vehicle exports and container demand

Focus on events: airline price dynamics; geopolitical events; actual booking price implementation and cargo demand fulfillment in July and August, etc.

rubber

Trading logic: The EUDR Act has increased the cost of natural rubber; China's rubber spot inventory level is at a relatively low level, continuing the trend of destocking, and the supply flow is tight; frequent rainfall in Southeast Asia has affected the progress of rubber tapping, and the volume is lower than expected; import volume continues to be low

Risk factors: Domestic automobile production and sales data weakened in May, with heavy truck sales declining year-on-year and month-on-month; butadiene rubber plants were restarted

Focus events: weather changes in production areas; domestic automobile production and sales data; changes in rubber inventory in Qingdao; rubber import volume; butadiene plant maintenance status, etc.

Palm Oil

Trading logic: Malaysian palm oil is about to enter a bumper harvest cycle; import profits have improved, and the market expects that domestic palm oil arrivals will increase after July; MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production has rebounded and inventory has increased

Risk factors: Malaysia's palm oil exports improved; Malaysian palm oil prices were about $100/ton cheaper than soybean oil, attracting buyers such as India to expand purchases; domestic palm oil inventories remained low;

Focus events: Malaysian palm oil export data released by ITS, Amspec and SGS; changes in domestic oil and fat inventory; palm oil arrival volume, etc.

Disclaimer

The information in this article is compiled from public sources. This article strives to provide accurate and reliable information, but no guarantees are made as to the accuracy and completeness of this information. This article does not constitute personal investment advice. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions based on this information.

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data