Bitcoin fell below $67,000 per coin, and the interest rate cut may be postponed to September. Will June be "killed first and respected later"?
Obviously, the data in the early morning this morning did not have any negative news, so why did Bitcoin continue to fall? There are two main reasons:
1) The expectation of interest rate cuts has weakened. After the release of economic data last week, the market speculation on interest rate cuts instantly died down. According to the terminal interest rate display, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 48.3%, slightly higher than the current probability of no interest rate cut (47.4%). In addition, the probability of a rate cut in September is also the highest.
2) Mentougou incident: The closer to the last compensation time in October, the greater the negative impact of Mentougou. According to analysts, the negative news of Mentougou may cause Bitcoin to fall by more than 10%, but this range has not yet been reached.
However, the market in June may not be so pessimistic. It is very likely to fall first and then rise, because from the perspective of the futures market, the bullish sentiment of the main options is very high. Among them, the nominal amount of the option position on June 28 was US$6.564 billion, and the number of call options was 65,800, worth US$4.454 billion, accounting for 67%!
Therefore, although the economic data and the "hawkish" views of the market have caused a certain correction in the crypto circle, the current capital market is optimistic.
Well, the market fluctuations in June will be very large, and the weather is gradually getting hot. Everyone must adjust their mentality and guard against arrogance and impatience.
Remember to follow me. I am Meng in the crypto circle who will accompany you to get rich slowly. I have been in the currency circle for 7 years and in the securities industry for 10 years. Maybe my analysis may not be the most accurate, but it must be the most sincere.
